Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Oct 4, 2020 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Some unsolicited advice.

A few people I admire and mentor were obsessed with the current news cycle––distracted + distraught with disbelief almost daily.

My advice was THIS: 👇👇👇
2/ Stop hitting refresh 🔘 on the news like an addicted caged rat looking for a hit of joy 😃or anger 😡

With so much to lose for so many in power––there is NO UNCERTAINTY. 

You know this: there is total CERTAINTY that there will be total chaos daily for weeks to come...
3/
You know this:
that few maybe none of those events are in your control. 

You know this:
you can control only what is in your control

1. voting (unless or until you can’t)
2. where you direct your attention + focus
3. how you choose to feel...
4/ Without investing intentional energy––the chaos will pull you down a drain on an endless journey without escape

Your friends and family will keep you in it as they commiserate and lament the chaos + distraction as their friends are doing the same

BUT––
5/ If you like them (or love them;)–– don’t let them.

Instead: lead + inspire them.

Avg + below avg people will be sucked down w/the masses.
You + yours are not average.
You + yours are better than that.

Whatever their job, joy, purpose, they mustnt’ let it get hijacked...
6/ Shake them from their head-shaking.

Remind them to fight the entropy + enmity in the world by doing good things. By doing really good things...
7/ Whether that is
-producing art
-serving others
-treating patients
-teaching students
-promoting justice
-accelerating tech progress
-advancing cures + treatments
-educating or entertaining people
-empowering + inspiring others, reducing human suffering

Fierce focus on that..
8/ Your (and their) time + attention are the scarcest resource

Willingly paying it to others in an unscripted circus show––as a passive spectator, a captive audience member gasping and cheering––is a squandering abdication of your own ambition and the good you must put out.
9/ Get up, get out, get at it––and get away from the vortex.

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More from @wolfejosh

May 17
1/ Preview of a speculative hypothesis

hormuz > fertilizer shortage > vulnerable food supply chain > food insecurity > existing migratory pressures exacerbated > peripheral country crisis in EU
=mkts 📉

unassimilated immigrants + rise of Right > violent clashes in EU
=mkts 📉 Image
2/ Complex systems (via @sfiscience) fail not from obvious blows

but from seemingly inconsequential events (a "single spark") igniting volatile _ pre-existing conditions.

endless historical precedents of small spark collrelations: ex #1 Russian Wheat > Arab Spring... Image
@sfiscience 3/ Ex 2: single shot fired in Sarajevo > WWI Image
Read 6 tweets
May 8
1/ On Feb 21 I told my boss aka my wife @LTwolfe that I had my third conviction call not yet appreciated + to buy a basket

*In 2016 it was NVDA, pitched publicly at Invest For Kids in Chicago (80x+) when Lux portfolio company Zoox was using NVDA chips and I predicted the narrative would change from gaming consoles PS4/Xbox to simulation and AI…
2/ here was the 2016 tweet on NVDA…
3/ In the fall is 2024 I pitched SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung and we bought in our pa

Mostly because I had read a technical paper about LLMs and inference on device with local flash (again changing narrative from commodity memory players to coveted attach rates on HBM AND edge)
Read 10 tweets
Mar 18
1/ New paper from @ylecun et al on alternative approach for AI to learn more biologically...

paper basically says AI is super smart but still can't learn like a toddler can...

the main critique Image
the main critique...

is that top models today dont learn once deployed.

and curating data + training pipelines + filtering out noise is all done by humans in loop instead of being an intrinsic skill of the AIs...

here's Claude explaining the paper simply Image
3/ not quite Kahneman style but they call it System A +B

System A = learning from observation

this is self-supervised learning like predicting next word or video frame. good at making representations but passive and struggles to understand cause + effect... Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 21
1/ The shift from GPU capex (NVDA) to memory intelligence is already underway (SK, Samsung, Micron).

What will be next?

Even the best HBM chips are constrained by how they get architected into systems...
2/ Nvidia's GPU racks have a fixed compute-to-memory ratio. It is baked in + hard to change.

It is GREAT for training––and a WALL for memory-intensive inference...
3/ We found a company with 1,000x more memory than a standard enterprise server.

1 of their servers replaces up to 10 conventional racks.

Less floor space. Less power. Less cooling. Same or better output...
Read 7 tweets
Feb 20
New Lux LP letter dropping this weekend...
2/ Q4 2025 Lux LP Letter… Image
3/ the DILUTION DELUSION
vs CONFIDENT CONCENTRATION

physics teaches that systems in disequilibrium eventually corrrect and the questions is never whether, but how––and how violently.

excess energy must dissipate whethery by gradual cooling or explosive release… Image
Read 11 tweets
Dec 5, 2025
1/Today at private investor gathering I pitched

LONG
Adobe (ADBE)

SHORT
basket of scientific publishers
Wiley
Elsevier
Springer Nature

AI overestimation oversold Adobe (down 40%)

AI underestimation along with 2 other catalysts is set to crack the oligopoly of publishers
2/ first $ADBE thesis then the short basket + weighting

reasonably clean dislocation in large-cap SW

Stock ~$325 (down ~40% from highs)

Mult compressed from ~40x to ~20x

EV/EBITDA ~11–12x (10yr low)

mkt sees "value trap" facing existential AI threat

I see category error
3/ I'll argue the consensus bear case:

"AI kills the seat" + commoditizes design

one AI-augmented designer replaces three

Adobe loses its moat, got disrupted, growth is slowing + it’s milking a hostage customer base...
Read 25 tweets

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