Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Oct 4, 2020 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Some unsolicited advice.

A few people I admire and mentor were obsessed with the current news cycle––distracted + distraught with disbelief almost daily.

My advice was THIS: 👇👇👇
2/ Stop hitting refresh 🔘 on the news like an addicted caged rat looking for a hit of joy 😃or anger 😡

With so much to lose for so many in power––there is NO UNCERTAINTY. 

You know this: there is total CERTAINTY that there will be total chaos daily for weeks to come...
3/
You know this:
that few maybe none of those events are in your control. 

You know this:
you can control only what is in your control

1. voting (unless or until you can’t)
2. where you direct your attention + focus
3. how you choose to feel...
4/ Without investing intentional energy––the chaos will pull you down a drain on an endless journey without escape

Your friends and family will keep you in it as they commiserate and lament the chaos + distraction as their friends are doing the same

BUT––
5/ If you like them (or love them;)–– don’t let them.

Instead: lead + inspire them.

Avg + below avg people will be sucked down w/the masses.
You + yours are not average.
You + yours are better than that.

Whatever their job, joy, purpose, they mustnt’ let it get hijacked...
6/ Shake them from their head-shaking.

Remind them to fight the entropy + enmity in the world by doing good things. By doing really good things...
7/ Whether that is
-producing art
-serving others
-treating patients
-teaching students
-promoting justice
-accelerating tech progress
-advancing cures + treatments
-educating or entertaining people
-empowering + inspiring others, reducing human suffering

Fierce focus on that..
8/ Your (and their) time + attention are the scarcest resource

Willingly paying it to others in an unscripted circus show––as a passive spectator, a captive audience member gasping and cheering––is a squandering abdication of your own ambition and the good you must put out.
9/ Get up, get out, get at it––and get away from the vortex.

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More from @wolfejosh

Feb 21
1/ The shift from GPU capex (NVDA) to memory intelligence is already underway (SK, Samsung, Micron).

What will be next?

Even the best HBM chips are constrained by how they get architected into systems...
2/ Nvidia's GPU racks have a fixed compute-to-memory ratio. It is baked in + hard to change.

It is GREAT for training––and a WALL for memory-intensive inference...
3/ We found a company with 1,000x more memory than a standard enterprise server.

1 of their servers replaces up to 10 conventional racks.

Less floor space. Less power. Less cooling. Same or better output...
Read 7 tweets
Feb 20
New Lux LP letter dropping this weekend...
2/ Q4 2025 Lux LP Letter… Image
3/ the DILUTION DELUSION
vs CONFIDENT CONCENTRATION

physics teaches that systems in disequilibrium eventually corrrect and the questions is never whether, but how––and how violently.

excess energy must dissipate whethery by gradual cooling or explosive release… Image
Read 11 tweets
Dec 5, 2025
1/Today at private investor gathering I pitched

LONG
Adobe (ADBE)

SHORT
basket of scientific publishers
Wiley
Elsevier
Springer Nature

AI overestimation oversold Adobe (down 40%)

AI underestimation along with 2 other catalysts is set to crack the oligopoly of publishers
2/ first $ADBE thesis then the short basket + weighting

reasonably clean dislocation in large-cap SW

Stock ~$325 (down ~40% from highs)

Mult compressed from ~40x to ~20x

EV/EBITDA ~11–12x (10yr low)

mkt sees "value trap" facing existential AI threat

I see category error
3/ I'll argue the consensus bear case:

"AI kills the seat" + commoditizes design

one AI-augmented designer replaces three

Adobe loses its moat, got disrupted, growth is slowing + it’s milking a hostage customer base...
Read 25 tweets
Nov 25, 2025
1/ We are ABSOLUTELY insanely lucky to be able to witness this conversation

MASTERCLASS in military + geopolitical strategy + Arab/Israeli conflict

@havivrettiggur's brilliance+ Dan Schueftan's realpolitik rationality

watch whole thing or pick any segment🤯
2/Key excerpts (summarized).
Hard to disagree with anything.

The Nature of the Enemy + "Barbarism"

The Definition of Barbarism: Barbarism is not just violence; it is a societal decision to value the death of the enemy over the lives of one's own children. When Hamas places weapons in tunnels but forces civilians to stay above ground during war, they are declaring that they do not care for their own survival, only the destruction of Jews.

The "Love of Death" is Literal: We must stop projecting Western rationalism onto enemies who openly declare, "You Jews will lose because you love life; we will win because we love death." This is not a slogan; it is a strategic doctrine that renders traditional deterrence mechanisms (like threat of death) ineffective.

The Danger of "Happy Wife, Happy Life" Geopolitics: The Western belief that economic prosperity ("a better life") leads to moderation is a fatal fallacy. The Second Intifada was launched when Palestinians had their best economic situation in history. You cannot buy off an ideology that considers killing Jews a higher calling than feeding children.

Culture is Deterministic: You cannot "de-radicalize" a society that does not want to change. Just as Libya’s failure is cultural rather than resource-based, Gaza’s failure is rooted in a culture where the only role models are those who kill Jews. The West’s refusal to discuss culture—viewing it as "progressive" to ignore it—blinds them to reality.
3/ (Summary continued) Strategic Realpolitik
Solutions are for Crossword Puzzles: In the Middle East, serious problems do not have solutions. The two-state solution is a fantasy for the "simpleminded." The only realistic strategy is combining "damage control" with the use of opportunity. If you are looking for a solution, you are looking for something that does not exist.

"Violent Maintenance" is the Only Peace: There will never be "peace" in the Western sense. There is only the constant destruction of the enemy's capacity to wage war. Israel must adopt a policy of "violent maintenance"—preemptively destroying capabilities (like factories and tunnels) before they can be used, regardless of the immediate diplomatic cost.

The "New York Times" Test: When fighting "barbarians," proportional response is a mistake. The response must be so overwhelming that it shatters the enemy's will. A good rule of thumb for Israel: "If the New York Times is not outraged, it's the wrong response.".

Western Aid Funds the Conflict: The West is funding its own enemies. Palestinians are the only refugees in history paid billions for generations to remain refugees. This funding teaches them that "behaving like barbarians" is a profitable business model that attracts French, British, and American support.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6, 2025
1/ 🚨Today history in AI 💻+ biology 🧬was made!

CZI led by Mark Zuckerberg + Priscilla Chan who've admirably committed tens of billions (and the entirety of their wealth to CZI) has acquired Lux family co Evolutionary Scale––just 2yrs after it's founding at a great multiple...Image
2/ We first teamed w/ @alexrives cofounder of EvolutionaryScale ~10yrs ago

cofounding Lux family Kallyope (cutting-edge bioetch focused on gut-brain axis)

Alex had the prescience to see the future of bio was computer science + AI. So he got his PhD at NYU and then... Image
@alexrives 3/...then Alex went to Meta, built an absolute cutting-edge AI bio group and published work that competed with Alphafold/Deepmind.

I tried to convince him to spinout in late winter of 2022––but Meta was funding him too well...

BUT THEN! A twist of fate Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 23, 2025
1/ why Quantum is BULLSHIT

"paving a path towards potential future"

like saying: 'Working towards possibility of maybe a thing that might one day be a breakthrough if a breakthrough were to maybe occur'

Here I assemble just 2005 to 2015 annual headlines or this BULLSHIT
2/ I could start in the 90s. But let's just go thru 20yrs of BULLSHIT

2005... Image
3/ 2006... Image
Read 18 tweets

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