1. A thread on what the Republican Party is now and where it might be going. Would really appreciate feedback from people with an interest in US politics as these ideas are just forming.
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2. To understand what the GOP is today--these are the most important charts to examine.
Sourced from: news.gallup.com/poll/248525/no…
3. The GOP is now overwhelmingly the choice of non-College Educated Whites--and correspondingly is being abandoned by those with college degrees. This is not a shock to those who have been following the Trump phenomenon.
4. The important thing is that the shift started years before Trump was nominated in 2016. By that time the GOP as people born before 1980 understood it was gone. That was what Trump instinctively understood and people like Jeb Bush did not.
5. Indeed what the GOP is today is not the traditional Republican Party at all. However it does have an uncanny resemblance to another major party in US history. Take a look at these charts:
6. The first is the 1916 election and the second what the 2020 election could be if it were held today and the polls were accurate. They are close to mirror images (with some notable changes). The blue and red states (representing the parties) have switched places
7 This phenomenon goes down to a county level. Take a look at the Ohio county breakdown in 1916 and 2016 (a vital swing state in each election). Some of the bluest parts of Ohio in 1916 are now deep Red.
8 to cut a long story short. The GOP today is not the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt or even Ronald Reagan. It is basically the Democratic Party of William Jennings Bryan and Woodrow Wilson.
9 The Democrats then were the party of the south, of the non-educated, evangelical white and had little appeal to minority voters. Basically the Trump coalition. Moreover Bryan/Wilson Democrats shared some interesting political stances with Trump Republicans (that is for later)
10, The huge migration of non-college educated whites to the GOP did allow it to win its very surprising win in 2016 (along with a historic and I would argue frightening imbalance in the electoral college--again another thread some other time).
11. For that reason, the party cant change after 2020 (when it will almost certainly lose) because its base is the only thing it has going for it. Basically the blue-dog Republicans will control the party. The old country clubbers and suburbanites wont be flocking back
12. The problem for the GOP is this is a recipe for the odd victory is what will be long periods of being out of power. The Democrats based on this electorate were one of the least successful major parties in US history--winning only 4 presidential elections between 1860 and 1928
13 The Democrats only became what we know them when FDR added African-Americans to that coalition with the New Deal. That was the force that dominated US politics until the 1960s when it started to break apart
14 So unless the Republican Party is granted something like a Great Depression which will allow it to add another large demographic to its base--it is basically doomed. Non-College educated whites are a declining part of the population
15 The obvious target for the GOP would be Hispanic voters or a combination of Indian (subcontinent) and Chinese/Asian American voters. Its hard to see how this can be done. It will be like trying to add African Americans to Woodrow Wilson's democrats without a Great Depression
16 So the odds are that we are heading into an era of decades of the Republicans being out of power--unless it repudiates its own base.
What do people think?
actually have decided that the GOP today should be called: Bryanite Republicans
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Trump is admitting two things here. The first is that he has been serving Russian interests by protecting Putin on numerous occasions. The second is that Trump is feeling pressure to be harder on Russia, which he really doesn’t want to do.
Response: keep up the pressure!
We now live in an era in which the President of the USA is publicly admitting to acting exactly as an agent of influence of Russia would be expected to act.
Republicans, do you feel proud to be supporting a President who openly admits to strongly and regularly defending the actions of a dictatorial war criminal who has invaded a democracy. Is this what you want the party to be?
Hi all, just sent out my free weekend update. This was the week where it was said many things changed, but actually relatively little did. Trump basically gave up pretending he was trying to negotiate in good faith and said if Putin doesn’t want a deal, that’s fine by him.
And at the same time, Trump is encouraging Putin not to have a deal as he continues to restrict new aid to Ukraine. Can we stop pretending that Trump cares about Ukrainian dead? He’s a narcissistic sociopath. This is just a continuation of his older policy in a new way.
I wrote about this in the update. The USA through Trump is now actively helping Russia kill Ukrainians by starving Ukraine of anti air facilities. The US is working with Russia. washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/…
OK, sent out this free piece on the details of the Trump "final" plan for Ukraine that has been seen by Axios. The 5 points have basically been dictated by Putin. They set up a process which would allow Russia to expand into all of its neighbors.
No one should be shocked by this. Its what Trump has been saying for years. The shocking thing is that people fooled themselves that we would not reach this point. The future of freedom and democracy in Europe is entirely in Europe's hands. I hope Europe does not blow it.
Btw, Putin saying right after this that he is now willing to freeze the war along the present front line and negotiate is almost certainly coordinated action with Trump to try and force this terrible deal down Ukraine’s and Europe’s throats
Trump is out of his depth in this trade war. He clearly didnt expect this Chinese reaction--and is accusing them of panicking. Ahhh--Projection....
The tragedy for the USA (self-inflicted) is that Trump seems to be going out of his way to strengthen China's international position. President Xi must be stunned as his good luck to be faced by such a fool--as I wrote in this piece today.
More Trump panic (a real-time meltdown is happening). Having put in place all the conditions for a major recession--he's now begging the Fed to cut interest rates and throw him a lifeline. Maybe he should ask the Chinese to stop panicking and help.
Pretty sure what we have seen today is Trump and Putin acting as allies to betray Ukraine and isolate Europe. What seems to have happened is this. 1) The US got Ukraine to agree a Black Sea ceasefire on the idea that if Rus broke it, the US would put more sanctions on Rus.
2) Trump then turn around and agreed sanctions relief with Russia as part of the Black Sea Ceasefire--which Ukraine would not have known (I imagine)
3) Ukraine is now in a box. If it rejects the US deal with Russia, the US can say Ukraine is the bad guy and end all sanctions.
4) If Ukraine keeps to the deal--Russia gets important relief and a significant advantage it did not have.
5) Only European states can help Ukraine now--but they need to be active and fast.
I do not think people realize how comprehensive the Trump Administration is being in its attempts to help Putin kill Ukrainians. I have it on an excellent source that Ukrainian UAV operations are 15% less effective because of the US intel cut off.
This should be a chilling warning for the rest of Europe. If the US can help Putin kill Ukrainians today, the US can help Putin kill lots of other Europeans tomorrow.
And the US is depriving the Ukrainians not only of weapons, but also medical supplies. The US is now making it more likely that wounded Ukrainians die.