When a neocolonialist motherfucker such as @EmmanuelMacron points to the colonized and says "you guys have a problem", this isn't a dispassionate critique but rather a pretext for a narrative of domination that will reflect in policy across the board and into the future.
Motherfuckers such as @EmmanuelMacron are a more serious threat to our liberty, dignity, and human rights than even Trump. At least outright racists such as Trump say the quiet part out loud and that inspires resistance and gets people to get off the fence.
If I had more time I'd post an entire series under the title "Fuck you, Macron" about how cynical he is about the "problems" he speaks about (while breaking down each problem and the actual solution). Maybe I'll have the time.
Macron isn't saying any of this to fix the problems, only to win the votes of racists, and perhaps to make more money from Muslim dictators who also want to say that we Muslims are uniquely savage and hence must be ruled by enlightened dictators because we can't rule ourselves.
Btw if you're offended by the language I use when I describe neocolonialists, tyrants, and terrorist, then don't follow me. I do not model myself after your social construct of how someone like me should sound, and I find it part of my work to advertise our rage to the world.
It is part of my job to show absolute contempt and complete disrespect for every power that profits off the subjugation of my people.
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On Friday, I presented a risk assessment briefing re the Iran war to my team on an internal call. We thought it was worth sharing the notes (which were AI-transcribed & summarized), so here goes. Posting without much editing to save time.
Note for context: I was born & raised in the Gulf, and lived the first 37 years of my life in the UAE. I still have friends & family in the UAE & the rest of the Gulf who I love dearly and worry about daily.
Anyway, on to it.
Overall assessment of the war
- Conflict is on an escalation/attrition path with no realistic short‑term off‑ramp.
- Iran sees the situation as existential and therefore cannot de‑escalate without serious guarantees; it still has not used the full spectrum of its capabilities (e.g. regular army/shadow navy, maximum Houthi disruption, sustained strikes on Gulf civilian targets).
- Israel will not stop on its own; the US political/military leadership is structurally and personally incapable of absorbing the “L” and stepping back.
- Likely timeline: this war phase runs at least to end of the year, potentially longer, with conditions changing non‑linearly (step‑changes/phase shifts) rather than gradually.
Re: How this war ends, it's clear that Iran is going for attrition, something the IRGC is good at, and the math works in their favor.
Meanwhile, it's not clear what the US is going for in terms of a threshold that would count as "victory".
It's also clear that short of bringing about regime change - which even the US and Israel have quietly acknowledged isn't gonna happen - Iran will retain its ability to block the Straits of Hormuz. Given the geography, it doesn't take much to disrupt shipping there.
Re Trump pressuring NATO allies to join his war - the fact is that even if every country stupidly sends its navy to the Straits, this will just pull in more countries without changing the dynamic. The French + British + Australians won't manage to do something the US can't.
In almost every way this war is becoming an absolutely catastrophic disaster and a humiliating strategic defeat for the United States. This could, relative to its scale & cost, go down as the worst planned, worst managed, worst executed war in modern US history.
Trump keeps issuing threats even as his admin are desperately trying to get the Iranians to answer the phone to agree on a way to deescalate. He doesn't get it - the Iranian government is no longer in any mood to take his bluster. They control the escalatory ladder now.
Just today we know:
- Iranian boats are starting to mine the Straits of Hormuz
- US is giving away its strategic position in Asia just to keep this war afloat
- In both the Gulf countries and Israel, more missiles/drones are getting through without interception or warning
Here's a megathread on the war on Iran that focuses on the deeper dynamics, potential trajectories, and likely outcomes.
A lot will change over the next few weeks - this thread is about what won't.
Stay until the end for an announcement & an invitation.
Most geopolitical analysis is cold and state-centric. Here, we look at the longer arcs and what they mean for the prospects for collective liberation and systems change.
This is geopolitics for liberation.
Let me start by saying that all the main actors here are awful:
- Israel is a genocidal apartheid state
- Trump is an incompetent, corrupt warmonger
- Iran's regime is a brutal, repressive theocracy
God bless and save the people of the region, they're the hope for change.
Israel is historically unique in that it struts like a hegemon but survives like a colony. It dominates its region militarily and psychologically, yet is so critically dependent on foreign support that if the lifeline is cut, the entire structure starts to collapse.
No state in modern history combines such regional dominance with such strategic dependence. Israel wields power like an empire, but lives like a protectorate - it can't sustain its supremacy without continuous Western military, economic, and diplomatic support.
To be clear, Israel is *not* a colony in key ways:
- It has no metropole
- It is sovereign and self-governing
- It exports ideology and security doctrine
- Its elite wield global influence
- It wasn't built for extraction but for replacement
Israel will never accept a sovereign, strong Syria. No amount of "goodwill signals" will change that, they’ll only be read as weakness and invite more aggression. Israel looks only at your capacity, never your intent. Its doctrine is security through mass devastation.
This government wasted months on appeasement while Israel bombed Syria 1000+ times, occupied ~200 sq km of land, inflamed sectarian tensions, this on top of its longstanding occupation of the Golan. Appeasement didn’t buy time or security. It sent a signal of weakness.
Accept reality or be crushed by it: Syria's main enemy isn't Hezbollah or Iran, it's Israel. Signaling "shared enemies" while it's murdering your people and occupying your land wasn't just naive, it was malpractice and an insult to strategy and to memory. ynetnews.com/article/hk00bz…