1. That's bc that "debate" performance from Trump was literally the worst thing ever seen in American politics- & that's after 5 yrs of seeing Donald Trump do his thing.
He was advised against the "strategy" & spent the whole next day convinced he'd killed it 🙄
2. I didn't do what so many others did in their books and suddenly apply magic filters to the two 2016 campaigns. In my chapter, A Tale of Two Campaigns, in the '16 cycle as in now, I recounted how shitty Trump's 2016 campaign was, from beginning to end and on every single metric
3. Especially contrasted w HRC's campaign. It wasn't until Trump's freak accident win that all the Clinton hit books had to be quickly revised to recount what a shitty campaign she ran- they were all set to be print about how much better the Clinton campaign was than the Trump
4. campaign- it wasn't even close. Indeed, as bad as this year's iteration is, the 2016 version was 1000% worse so keep that in mind every time one of these people who just knew the Clinton team was running a shitty campaign comes on the TV... I think I might be one of the few
5. people that criticized their strategy in real-time- and that was in relation to the decision to go all-in on the conversion of Rs and even I was wooed by the rise of Never Trump somewhat. Donald Trump is the shittiest candidate in the history of presidential politics and his
6. instincts are shit- but he had two things work out well for him- timing, running into a complacent left-side of the spectrum- and the RNC's turnout operation bc they're the ones that ran the real campaign for him. He has that now too, and a cult-like following in terms of
7. what right-wing media has done to the GOP electorate so he is still competitive to win if Ds don't match the turnout (they will) and get the votes counted (this is the real fight).
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Shit has hit the fan in LA and other Blue cities as the realities of rounding up millions of people, many of whom have lived in the U.S. for years or came as children and have grown up American begin to take root. thecycle.substack.com/p/the-cycle-mo…
For those of us who’ve spent the last 6 months discussing how Trump would use mass deportations to create chaos is the Blue states and then use that chaos as an excuse to declare a national emergency and seize total power, things are right on schedule.
Although MAGA seems to think Democrats created the illegal immigration problem, the issues with illegal immigration dates back decades and is a byproduct of decisions made by the last 8 or 9 presidents combined.
Here’s the truth they don’t teach in high school civics or scream about on Fox News: America didn’t always have a “border crisis.”
🧵There are serious implications to the end of Elon and Trump’s partnership.
I have mentioned before, even having Elon exit stage left was great news for us, but having him kill off Trump’s Big “Beautiful” Bill.
Well, that could change everything.
Not only may we end up in a 2026 scenario where a major player (and his money) have removed themselves from the game, now we might even see Elon actively undermine Republicans up and down the ballot.
I would forfeit every Christmas gift I get from now to the end of time if we could only get Elon spending and working against Trump.
But wait….because it gets even better!!
🧵Trump's Executive Orders Serve One Sinister Purpose:
Inside Team Trump's Shrewd Strategy to Kill Democracy
Many times I’ve asked you to imagine what it would be like, what your thoughts, feelings, and beliefs about contemporary America would be like, if you were one of the 100 million plus Americans who can’t name their own state’s senators.
Vox dropped a recent piece that is firewalled, but I want you to read this short excerpt from their reporting:
Now, don’t focus on the particular demographics of this particular disenchanted voter.
She could be anyone: a man, a woman, old, young, Black or White. Believe it or not, there are even college educated Americans who have this kind of limited, simplistic frame for interpreting political events.
🧵STAT of the Week
Voters Have No Idea What Democrats Stand For
I want to show you something very important.
You know I talk non-stop about how Republicans have intentionally trashed the Democratic Party’s brand, but today I want to focus on how Democrats help them get away with it.
Last week David Shor from Blue Rose Research released their election autopsy. You can find the entire presentation this slide comes from here in a conversation between Ezra Klein and David Shor.
But I want to focus on just one key chart in Shor’s data, this. 👇
And I want to talk about it differently than Shor does in his interview. He doesn’t even notice what I am am going to show you.
🧵What is the Overton Window and Why Is Elon Musk Breaking It?
Elon Musk Bought Twitter to Make the Unacceptable Acceptable. And It's Working.
So many political science terms, so little time.
As I meet with more and more people from the upper tiers of Democratic Party politics it is becoming clear to me that there are key findings from peer-reviewed political science research that simply never trickled down to the general public.
Long time subscribers to this distinguished ‘Stack should know two of those political science concepts well by now: 1. the strength of party identification on public opinion and vote choice for the vast majority of the electorate and 2. the stunningly low levels of civic knowledge of American voters.
🧵STAT(S) Of the Week:
Never Interrupt Your Enemy When They Are Making a Mistake
I think, and I believe many of you must agree, it is best to live and strategize in the world we actually live in and not the one we wished we lived in.
Unfortunately, in the real world, even after two months of the terrible headlines we have been reading, the average public still likes Donald Trump way more than Democrats.
He still beats us by 20 points!
As I explained in a prior post, some of that low approval rating is coming from Democrats who don’t think the party is doing enough and saw the CR fight as the first chance to put up a fight.
Now, I want you to keep our 29% favorability rating in mind while considering last week and the decision by 9 senate Democrats to vote for the CR rather than shut down the government.