1. That's bc that "debate" performance from Trump was literally the worst thing ever seen in American politics- & that's after 5 yrs of seeing Donald Trump do his thing.
He was advised against the "strategy" & spent the whole next day convinced he'd killed it 🙄
2. I didn't do what so many others did in their books and suddenly apply magic filters to the two 2016 campaigns. In my chapter, A Tale of Two Campaigns, in the '16 cycle as in now, I recounted how shitty Trump's 2016 campaign was, from beginning to end and on every single metric
3. Especially contrasted w HRC's campaign. It wasn't until Trump's freak accident win that all the Clinton hit books had to be quickly revised to recount what a shitty campaign she ran- they were all set to be print about how much better the Clinton campaign was than the Trump
4. campaign- it wasn't even close. Indeed, as bad as this year's iteration is, the 2016 version was 1000% worse so keep that in mind every time one of these people who just knew the Clinton team was running a shitty campaign comes on the TV... I think I might be one of the few
5. people that criticized their strategy in real-time- and that was in relation to the decision to go all-in on the conversion of Rs and even I was wooed by the rise of Never Trump somewhat. Donald Trump is the shittiest candidate in the history of presidential politics and his
6. instincts are shit- but he had two things work out well for him- timing, running into a complacent left-side of the spectrum- and the RNC's turnout operation bc they're the ones that ran the real campaign for him. He has that now too, and a cult-like following in terms of
7. what right-wing media has done to the GOP electorate so he is still competitive to win if Ds don't match the turnout (they will) and get the votes counted (this is the real fight).
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Harris/Walz Have Changed the Fundamentals of 2024🧵
The data is starting to catch up to the shockwave that is the nomination of Vice President Harris.
One of the biggest problems Democrats faced this cycle was voter apathy towards Joe Biden. Fair or not, Americans wanted a new candidate and as Nikki Haley suggested back in the GOP Primary, the first party that gave them a new choice would have a big edge.
We had another election with “double haters.”
Now we only have single haters.
What most analysts and pundits opined could be merely a “Harris honeymoon” is translating now into what I expected we’d see the 48 hours after we saw high-profile Democrat after Democrat put their own ambitions aside to help the party coalesce around Harris: Harris will have the edge as we go into the fall.
The Winds of Change:
Harris at Top of the Ticket is About to Shake It Up
🧵You know I prefer to have solid data to back up my assertions, but in this case I have decided for the benefit of your mental health to throw caution to the wind and get ahead of the data a bit.
The temptation to parcel out every poll this past week and next will be high (and the clicks they provoke too tempting) for them not to do so, but I want to make something crystal clear:
it will take until heading into the DNC in 3 weeks for the polls to have amassed enough data to tell us how much the dynamics of the race have changed by giving the American people the ONE thing they wanted: a younger candidate.
Today in 1933, Adolph Hitler swore this oath as he as he became the German chancellor:
“I swear loyalty to the Constitution, obedience to the law, and conscientious fulfillment of the duties of my office, so help me God.”
Having run on an explicitly authoritarian platform, within a year, Hitler had completely neutralized the "coalition government," outlawed all parties aside from the Nazis, purged the civil services of Jews and political foes, cracked down on the free press, and sent thousands of political enemies to Dachau.
In Hitler's Germany, Germans took a very different kind of oath, one to Hitler, not the law.
“I swear I will be true and obedient to the Führer of the German Reich and people, Adolf Hitler, observe the law, and conscientiously fulfill the duties of my office, so help me God.
Over the next 10 months, we are going to walk you through Project 1933 so you can appreciate the weakness of legal protections in the face of people committed to violating it and understand how Project 1933 relates to the Republican Party's Project 2025.
🧵Keep Calm and Listen to the Signal:
Polls are the Noise, Election Results are the Signal
I want to make something clear right up front: the 2024 presidential election will be decided within roughly 7 swing states and will produce a very tight margin for the eventual winner
The fact is from now, until Election Day, there is a 50/50 chance we lose, no matter what probabilities certain models spit out.
The Biden-Harris campaign strategy will make the choice clear in 2024: democracy or dictatorship, BUT
I need you to prepare yourselves now for the inevitability that roughly 50% of Americans are going to find Trump’s #Project2025 message of removing “unelected bureaucrats” from government agencies in order to “purge the deep state” highly attractive.