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Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

May 20

☀️@PUNCHBOWLNEWS AM: DOES TRUMP CARE ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITIES?

punchbowl.news/archive/52026-…

With less than 24 weeks until Election Day, President Donald Trump seems almost maniacally focused on doing and saying things that could harm Republicans’ chances of keeping their House and Senate majorities in November.

With voters saying they’re frightened by high prices and disappearing healthcare coverage, Trump is building a new billion-dollar White House ballroom and asking for taxpayer money to secure it. His administration announced Monday that it was setting up a nearly $1.8 billion fund to compensate victims of “weaponization and lawfare” under the Democrats, a move that shocked even Republicans.

As gas prices skyrocket due to the unpopular war in Iran, Trump says it’s a “very small price to pay” as long as he believes the conflict is proceeding to his liking.

The president is targeting GOP members and senators for defeat, even if it makes it harder for Republicans to keep the seat.

1) Trump bucked Senate Majority Leader John Thune and top Senate Republicans on Tuesday and endorsed scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). Part of Trump’s rationale: Paxton has been “extremely loyal” to him, and Cornyn was “very late in backing” the president’s 2024 bid.

2) Trump seems intent on speaking publicly about the White House ballroom project almost daily. Regardless of your views about the necessity of White House renovations, it doesn’t take a political wiz to come to the conclusion that now might not be the best time to brag about building a plush ballroom.

The White House desperately wants Congress to approve $1 billion for the Secret Service to address various security needs. But that legislative push has become inextricably intertwined with using taxpayer money to protect the ballroom, making it nearly impossible to foresee Congress approving the money.

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Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

Feb 5, 2025

Happy Wednesday.

☀️AM: The options to jumpstart the Trump agenda

After speaking all day to top House Republicans, here's are the options for reconciliation.

stay the course -- and pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Johnson is an optimist. You gotta give him that. The Louisiana Republican has maintained that the mess that we’re seeing right now is all part of what he calls the “deliberative process.” Fair enough. There’s certainly a lot of deliberating going on.

But there’s a path — a narrow path — for House Republicans to get a budget resolution allowing “one big beautiful bill” to move forward.

Following a very long meeting in the speaker’s office Tuesday night that included GOP leadership, committee chairs and some of the hardliners, there were signs of progress, although no agreement yet.

“I think when you look at where we are, we’re close to a trillion [dollars in cuts] and still working,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters afterward.

Scalise added that House GOP leaders “are focused on” trying to mark up a budget resolution next week.

They’ve also directed all the committees involved in this process to come up with more spending cuts. “We’re working on details for each committee,” Scalise said. “But we have gone back to each committee to increase those numbers. We’re not done on it.”

Plus, Republicans will think expansively about how to count savings — DOGE, projected 3% economic growth and a juiced economy from slashing regulations.

Then there’s Trump.

Can Trump, who has had limited legislative success during his first term, get Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) to back Johnson’s plan? Trump hasn’t yet leaned on lawmakers to get the reconciliation process going. By next week, he may have to.

Switch to two bills.

Hold onto your hat, Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.). There are House Republicans talking about the Budget Committee switching course and marking up the dual-track reconciliation process that Smith, the Ways and Means Committee chair, has railed against for months.

Trump says he doesn’t care if there’s one bill or two bills as long as his agenda gets approved. There are plenty of senior aides in the White House who want two bills. And the House Freedom Caucus wants two also.

The first reconciliation package would have defense spending, energy policy and border security provisions. The second reconciliation package — the tax-cut portion — would be punted until later. When exactly is unclear.

Smith doesn’t like the two-bill approach. In his view, that puts tax cuts at risk. Yet if the Budget Committee remains stuck, House Republicans may not have a choice.

Chip Roy, the floor is yours.

There’s always an inclination in House Republican leadership to say something like this: “OK, Freedom Caucus. If you think your idea is so great, give it a shot, and let’s see how it goes.”

Play this out with us for a moment. What if Johnson tells Roy, Norman and the other conservative holdouts that they should write whatever budget resolution they want, try to push it through the Budget Committee and the full House, and then see what the Senate will do with it?

Of course, a Freedom Caucus-favored package may not get through the Budget Committee. If it does, it could fail on the House floor. And it will certainly get ripped to shreds in the Senate.

But there’s utility in that exercise to show that hardliners need to drop their draconian spending-cut demands and embrace a bill that can actually become law. That’s the real goal of legislating, right?

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Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

Jan 15, 2024

ON THE HOUSE REPUBLICAN CALL —

@SpeakerJohnson says that with Hal rogers and Scalise out, the majority is slimmer than ever.

There’s simply not enough time so a CR is required, Johnson says.

“Best remaining option on the table … keeps laddered approach,” Johnson said.

JOHNSON says house gop position is hr2. And reiterated he won’t take the senate deal.

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Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

Dec 14, 2023

🚨SOME NEWS about @PunchbowlNews ...

We have acquired @electoanalytics, a data startup that focuses on Congress.

Electo Analytics is a truly special platform. It tracks and allows collaboration on bills, tracks regulations and has a fulsome directories of the Hill, state and local public officials and aides.

The deal valued Punchbowl News at north of $100 million.

Here's NYT story nytimes.com/2023/12/14/bus…

But I want to take a second to talk about what our goals are. And what Punchbowl News wants to do going forward.

From our start nearly 3 years ago, our aim was to create a news organization that serves people who care deeply about the politics of governing.

We do that through our three newsletters -- AM, Midday and PM. We do that through our social and newsmaker events. We do that through our polling of Capitol Hill and K Street.

And we will do that through our acquisition of Electo Analytics, which will be folded into Punchbowl News. We want Punchbowl News to be the place where you get your news -- and where you do your work in Washington. We'll be building this platform out with the Hill/Downtown in mind -- and with everyone's input.

We're building it for you.

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Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

Oct 20, 2023

BACON votes MCHENRY

1 against JORDAN

BUCHANAN goes for BYRON DONALDS

2 against Jordan

BUCK goes for TOM EMMER

3 against JORDAN

Read 17 tweets

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

Oct 18, 2023

DON BACON of Nebraska votes MCCARTHY

1 against Jordan

VERN BUCHANAN votes for Byron Donalds

That's a new NO VOTE for Jordan

2 against JORDAN

KEN BUCK goes for EMMER

3 against JORDAN

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