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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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4 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The great COVID-19 testing mega thread...

(Given what's transpired in the last 48H, seemed like a good idea to have all this in one place. Each tweet is the start of a separate thread.)

1. Remember: the summary page data is ALWAYS wrong. Here's why...
2. Here's when the samples for the huge mass of positive tests announced in the last 48 hours were actually taken.
3. Here's where we now stand after the dust settles, at over 11,000 real new COVID-19 cases a day.
4. Here's the weekly growth rate of the pandemic since late March. As you can see it's accelerating, and is currently over 50% growth a week.

/END

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More from @uk_domain_names

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
5 Oct
After factoring in the missing COVID-19 data in England, it's clear that cases are rocketing in every part of the UK.

The graphs below show 7-day new cases per 100,000 population, in each of the 4 nations. They're based on the specimen date. (The date that samples were taken.) ImageImage
You can also see the impact of the stricter lockdown measures in Scotland and Wales over the summer. Cases there fell much further than in England, to a very low baseline.

But now, sadly, everywhere in the UK is being hit - badly.
Also worth noting: every part of the UK exceeded the UK Government threshold for imposing a quarantine (20 new cases per 100,000 over a 7-day period) since the beginning of September. Now we're almost 4x that.

In other words, if the UK were a foreign country, we'd quarantine it!
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
4 Oct
22,961 new coronavirus cases reported across the UK (ignore the misleading graph!)

Regardless of the fact that many of these are "missing" cases being caught up, that's a failure so huge it can be seen from the Moon...
Everyone who mocked the Whitty/Vallance projections is wearing an omelette worth of eggs on their face right now!

🥚 🍳
Now you could argue "but the critics didn't know".

But you don't have to be an epidemiologist to understand that a pandemic doesn't go from exponential growth to flat in the space of a day.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
3 Oct
[THREAD]
You may well be familiar with the UK Government's coronavirus dashboard, the main website they use to report data on a daily basis for the whole of the UK.

What you may not realise is that almost nothing you see on the summary page is accurate.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk
There are a wide range of reasons for the data being incorrect or out of date. Combined, the result is that almost everything you see on that first page underplays the severity of the pandemic.

The first thing is, all graphs are 7-day averages, not actual value graphs.
Secondly, summary Testing data includes some people who have been tested to see if they had COVID-19 in the past.

You need "Tests processed by Pillar" (Pillars 1 and 2) on the detailed Testing page to see number of currently infected people being tested.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
Read 11 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
3 Oct
Remarkable desperation from the Express. Someone in government must have spent hours on their knees, begging.
Narrator: The cost is underestimated by 5x. Most are not entirely new hospitals. There are no cost savings from Brexit, only added costs. But apart from that...
Also worth noting that they sacrificed the story of Trump for this dishrag propaganda puff piece.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
2 Oct
(THREAD)
A whole host of new rules on VAT and duty-free are coming in on 1 January 2021 after the Brexit transition period ends.

The UK Government held a consultation, and the changes are weaved into the summary.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
- Passengers going to the EU will be able to buy duty-free alcohol and tobacco products like they can now for non-EU destinations.
- But they will no longer be allowed to bring in unlimited amounts of goods from the EU for personal use. Instead, there will be specific limits.
- The government is getting rid of tax-free sales to all destinations (that will hit retailers in airports, like Dixons) - they had to do that because WTO rules demand equal treatment for all countries, so it was either that or extend tax-free sales to EU destinations.
Read 7 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
2 Oct
Good to see that taxpayer cash is being used to fund pro-Brexit propaganda...

The ad below appears on the front page of the Daily Mail online. Note the small "sponsored" designation.

It links to a page that's far too rah-rah-rah positive about Brexit.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
But the fascinating thing is, between the "success stories" of the profiled businesses, there are quite a number of harsh Brexit realities shoehorned into the margins...
- extra tariffs
- need to stockpile products
- longer transit times
- new customs declarations
- EORI numbers
- need to register for VAT in multiple EU countries
- EU employees need to get settled status
- new labelling regulations, including duplicate labels (CE + UK regime)
- new documentation to travel to trade shows and supplier meetings
- tariffs and duties to send samples ahead
Read 4 tweets

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