The Question: Why Would China Not Invade Taiwan Now?armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Milit… "There is likely to be at least one member of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) and the Central Military Commission (CMC) who would make some or all of the following ten points ... "
"I would be surprised if this debate hasn’t already begun within the CMC." —Gen. Martin Dempsey.
"I would ascribe less than a one in four chance that they make a military move in the immediate future, i.e., before U.S. elections." —Adm. James Stavridis
"I would ascribe less than a one in four chance that they make a military move in the immediate future, i.e., before U.S. elections." —Adm. James Stavridis
"There probably are some hawks in Beijing arguing for the invasion of Taiwan, confident the U.S. would not respond with military might. They would be wrong. Failure to defend Taiwan is not an option." —Amb. Joseph DeTrani
IOW, the most optimistic member of this discussion sees odds slightly south of 25 percent that China will move before the election.
And Amb. Joseph DeTrani is perfectly correct: Failure to defend Taiwan is not an option.
And Amb. Joseph DeTrani is perfectly correct: Failure to defend Taiwan is not an option.
Do you like those odds? A bit less than one in four that we'll be in a shooting war with China before the election? Frankly, they make me uneasy.
If the odds were "less than one in four" when this was published on June 4, what do you think they are now, when our entire chain of command is in chaos and we're clearly having a complete national nervous breakdown? I think they're a bit higher.
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