1/ EU capitals say Boris Johnson needs to get personally involved in the Brexit talks now if they're to reach a successful conclusion. They want him to get stuck into the detail and then hit the phone to key leaders. Nobody expects major progress before next week's summit.
2/ At the moment the negotiations are drifting, with steady progress being made on technical issues but none at all on the major sticking points. EU officials/diplomats insist they'll never walk away and are prepared to take the talks down to the wire in December if needs be.
3/ People here were perplexed by the PM’s performance in his recent video call with Ursula von der Leyen. On substance he 'didn't have much to say' and the main message out of it appeared to be to ‘hope for the best’. Given recent optimism on the UK side it was a 'poor result'.
4/ EU sources keep stressing what the UK is asking for isn’t simply a Canada-style or ‘bargain basement’ deal but much more. ‘This is not a flimsy trade agreement, this is serious stuff’ says one. The five papers recently tabled by No 10 aren't seen as 'movement' from the UK.
5/ The chances of EU leaders green lighting major concessions on fishing or the LPF at next week’s summit are nil. That’s not how things work. Much more likely is they'll express concern about lack of progress, instruct Barnier to carry on negotiating, and activate no deal plans.
6/ One thought now being given consideration is the two sides will have to run out of time and pick up negotiations in the New Year. But that path is fraught with difficulty for both sides. It would be economically and politically damaging and there are no guarantees it'd work.
7/ Will Angela Merkel get involved? It's likely, yes. But as has so often been stated, that doesn't mean No 10 should put out the bunting. While she may look to curb some of the EU's hardest positions, she's more likely to be 'tough' on Johnson and what he needs to do for a deal.
8/ Ultimately sources say there is little any of the EU's leadership can do to try and find the trade-offs required while the PM is so far detached from the talks. 'It’s about time higher up in the hierarchy people start involving themselves if they want to achieve something.'
9/ But diplomats hope the optimistic noises coming out of No 10 about the chances of a deal are setting up a UK move to break the deadlock in the next four weeks. They say 'significant movement' is still needed on governance and LPF for the 'wrap up' stage of the talks to begin.
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