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Phil Kerpen

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6 Oct, 8 tweets, 2 min read

DC reports zero deaths with COVID.

Testing new all-time high. (Thanks White House!) Positive % falls.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 105 / 8,461 1.24%
7-Day: 352 / 23,633 1.49%
14-Day: 631 / 48,396 1.30%
28-Day: 1290 / 93,431 1.38%

NOTE: "DC Health does not have information about cycle thresholds."

Per NYT cycle thresholds of 37 to 40 yield up to 90% noninfectious, months-old viral debris.

One test used by the DC Public Health Lab runs *45* doubling cycles.

Test more find more. But what did you find?

Friendly reminder to media: reporting non-testing-volume-adjusted "case" counts without context does your audience a disservice.

Data and charts in Google Sheet here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

https://twitter.com/fox5dc/status/1313493367829999618?s=19

Media failure:

https://twitter.com/fox5dc/status/1313493367829999618?s=19

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More from @kerpen

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

1 Oct

DC reports 1 death with COVID.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 32 / 2,320 1.38%
7-Day: 252 / 22,313 1.13%
14-Day: 568 / 48,862 1.16%
28-Day: 1223 / 91,421 1.34%

Deaths by month:

@MayorBowser

Positives continue to move with testing volume.

32 positives today is under @MayorBowser's 35 positives/day standard thanks to moderating testing volume.

@MayorBowser

Trending toward @MayorBowser's nearly impossible 5 positives/day/100K standard as RNA shadow fades; will need testing volume to stay moderate to get there.

Read 7 tweets

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

30 Sep

DC reports 1 death with COVID. Now 18 in September (peak was 220 in April and 237 in May).

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 26 / 1,464 1.78%
7-Day: 276 / 24,412 1.13%
14-Day: 583 / 49,619 1.17%
28-Day: 1249 / 93,063 1.34%

@MayorBowser

Positives continue to move with testing volume.

26 positives today is under @MayorBowser's 35 positives/day standard thanks to low volume.

Trending toward Bowser's nearly impossible standard, but only due to moderating testing volume in recent days.

Read 5 tweets

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

29 Sep

DC reports 2 deaths with COVID. Now 17 total in September.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 36 / 3,348 1.08%
7-Day: 279 / 24,763 1.13%
14-Day: 613 / 50,116 1.22%
28-Day: 1251 / 93,552 1.34%

@MayorBowser

Positives continue to move with testing volume.

<1.1% not good enough for @MayorBowser.

36 positives is OVER her 35 positives/day standard at medium volume.

Trending toward Bowser's nearly impossible standard, but on moderating testing volume in recent days.

Read 4 tweets

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

28 Sep

DC reports zero deaths with COVID. Still 15 in September after 22 in August.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 14 / 1,889 0.74%
7-Day: 286 / 25,304 1.13%
14-Day: 642 / 50,900 1.26%
28-Day: 1272 / 92,366 1.38%

@MayorBowser

Positives continue to move with testing volume.

1.1% not good enough for @MayorBowser.

Two days in a row under her 35 positives/day but only because of low volume. Her 14 day standard is impossible at recent volumes due to false positives.

Read 4 tweets

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

27 Sep

DC reports zero deaths with COVID.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 35 / 3,180 1.10%
7-Day: 295 / 26,015 1.13%
14-Day: 658 / 50,518 1.30%
28-Day: 1291 / 93,070 1.39%

@MayorBowser

Positives continue to move with testing volume.

1.1% not good enough for @MayorBowser.

We hit her 35 max on the nose but only because testing volume dipped.

Firmly in range where all positives could be false positives.