Thread by @samlistens

Despite my dabblings in futurism & forecasting, I hesitate to make hard predictions about what's coming next.

That said, here's my #Election2020 outlook:

All speculation about his chances in the polls is meaningless bc his only play is to win thru chaos 1/

I love numerical conjecture from @538politics @nytimes et al as much as anyone. Right now they tell us that Trump has 0% chance of winning popular vote & slim chances of winning electoral college. 2/

No one understands this better than Trump. And he is pivoting hard away from normal victory conditions & towards radicalizing a hard core base who will defend his rule by force.

The key indicator to me? His performance of his body. Look: 3/

Trump loves to speak, but his most powerful message here silence. He is pure physicality, his body the essence of his message. He wills his body to become America. He believes he can MAGA bc he can make his body strong. 4/

c-span.org/video/?c491283…

He does not look 100% healthy, and that's the point. He wants the look of a conquering hero, battle-scarred, dominating the virus with the sheer power of his body. 5/

And so what does this have to do with election outlook? Plenty:

The way to win hearts and minds is empathy, which he could have done thru playing the victim card (as he so often does).

But he's not after hearts and minds.

He's after strong bodies. 6/

This is, to put it bluntly, some Mussolini shit. 7/

Lots of journos have charted out how he can keep the presidency without an outright victory, and @TheAtlantic confirms that the Oval is wargaming this.

He's activated the pr0ud b0ys as shock troops.

And so all of this should tell us... 8/

theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

ELECTORAL COUNT FORECASTING DOES NOT MATTER

We can deduce he's got X% of winning, but we are approaching 100% certainty that he will not be voted out. 9/

This is not to say that voting doesn't matter! For the love of God, VOTE!

Just don't expect that all of this will be solved on election night. And don't expect that it will be solved through counting the votes. 10/

PS—quick refresher on etymology of "fascism." It comes from "fascis," the symbol of strength in Imperial Rome. It is a bundle of sticks, fastened together around an axe blade.

Its symbology suggests strength thru unity—individual sticks together to form a much strong unit 11/

...which COULD be a symbol of equality and collective strength.

But the fasces isn't used to unite. It demonstrates consolidation of power. It's used to beat the shit out of—or behead—anyone who steps out of line. /12

To me the fasces says, "we don't need the support of all of you—only enough of you to whack anyone we don't like."

& that, friends, is what you can do with a small army of blackshirts as the prd bys are want to become. /13

Oh and fwiw, there's at least one beloved American icon that sports the fasces. Check out what's propping up Abe's hands.

Buckle up, America /end