Top German scientists: 1. Herd immunity not possible bc immunity too short. 2. Not feasible to go 'shield vulnerable' approach bc impossible to fully identify & isolate them. 3. Potential serious, long-term damage to young/healthy also from this virus. mpg.de/15426163/stell…
They suggest that what works is: 1. Test/trace/isolate 2. Mask-wearing 3. Distancing 4. Travel restrictions 5. Identifying & stopping super-spreading events. 5. Good guidance to public on what is risky & not.
Receiving notes from those w/ risk factors (asthma, overweight, hypertension, cancer survivors, diabetes) or elderly who are saddened by their lives being portrayed as worthless (ie acceptable loss, would die anyways). Please remember this is not the view of the silent majority.
Massive distraction -> Instead of figuring out how to build a robust test/trace/isolate system and how to incentivise compliance with guidance, we are stuck debating whether we should all be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (*unless you’re wealthy & can easily shield*).
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Was the response by government proportionate? In these debates, there’s a clear survival bias. Those who can ask these questions survived. Those who died don’t have a chance to weigh in on whether government intervention was sufficient, or whether their deaths were preventable.
A large part of the problem in Britain’s response was that we wanted it all. We wanted to maintain our pre-Covid-19 life, and, until hospitals were at the brink of collapse, didn’t want to discuss trade-offs.
The Telegraph coverage misses the basic fact every country faced with COVID: a wave of cases meant a wave of hospitalisations then a wave of deaths. Emergency lockdowns happened when health services were breaking. Bc of too many cases (1/4) ->
If health services break then excess mortality jumps from all causes: heart attacks to wheezing children. The scientific challenge of COVID was reducing the link between cases to hospitalisation to deaths. Vaccines & antivirals did this which is why govts could open up (2/4) ->
But until these, testing/masks was best way to buy time in 2020 & avoid healthcare collapse & then lockdown. *Keeping cases low* was how to avoid lockdown. Not letting it rip. Debating ‘it’s not so bad’/constant u turns is why UK had high death toll & long lockdown (3/4) ->
Reflection: There was a huge divide btwn what experts/advisors said & what UK govt often did. Experts/science advisors looked at latest data & presented advice. Ministers looked at publicity angle & some looked at how to make money for friends through PPE/testing contracts.
Mass Testing was the best early path to avoid lockdown & suppress COVID- but this message got lost in a binary ‘shutdown or nothing’. This wasn’t what most scientists were saying in 2020. Lockdown was a late & chaotic emergency button from lack of prep. mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/p…
Testing meant identifying just those infectious instead of isolating everyone (a precise public health response to limit spread). This was to buy time for a vaccine or scientific solution- delaying infections meant increasing survival rate. 1 April 2020: theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
H5N1 avian flu is a serious disease &: the WHO estimated the fatality rate around 60%. If it does manage to spread human-to-human (instead of just bird to human), it has high pandemic potential. This is why surveillance & preparation have increased in many regions of the world.
The main protection for humans would be a vaccine- unlike COVID was in 2020, H5N1 isn't a new disease so there's been time to develop a vaccine and they're now being tested by several teams of researchers in various countries.
If you want to get more fit or be more active -> you don’t have to run a marathon or go from 0 to super-athlete. It can be as simple as a daily walk which becomes a part-jog (or jig…) or a 30 min cycle at the gym or - doing a YouTube HIIT. Something is better than nothing.
My approach to fitness has evolved to be about functionality -> how can I keep my mind & body in a state that lets me do all the things that I both need to do and want to do. Harder with ageing & a heavy workload. But weight-lifting, getting heart rate up & being consistent help.
I was recently asked to do another magazine photoshoot (on mental & physical health) & a thought popped up ‘You need to lose weight’- I guess bc of what we often see in magazines/movies. Extremely thin women. I’m glad I’ve learned enough through my career & PT studies…
Does COVID-19 still constitute a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)? As the WHO Expert Committee debates this, if they follow the strict definition of a PHEIC, I don't think it does. The definition focuses on 3 aspects -> (1/n)
1. Sudden or unusual or unexpected event 2. Potential for international spread 3. International coordination/response necessary. Clearly COVID-19 met all of this 3 years back when declared a PHEIC. But now... (2/n)
COVID's already taken a huge toll in disability, deaths & economic pain, it's spread everywhere, & attempts have been made for a joint global response. PHEIC is an alarm bell to put world in highest state of emergency response. In 2020, COVID-19 became #1 priority for govts (3/n)