Lots of discussion has kicked off about the naval force structure proposed yesterday by @EsperDoD, which will include a significant proportion of unmanned (or minimally-manned) ships in an effort to reduce costs, distribute the naval firepower among more & smaller platforms, etc.
This alternative naval force structure sounds to me like an interesting opportunity for a simulation, to see how something like the proposed construct - specifically the use of small and/or unmanned platforms - might perform against a more traditional naval force.
The tool we can use to see what it might look like is Command: Modern Operations (CMO), a commercially-available air/naval warfare sim. Using its scenario editor, we can set up opposing forces and unleash them on each other to see what happens. matrixgames.com/game/command-m…
I'll be using the consumer-grade version of the game, so take the results with a good hunk of salt. There's a pro version also, but it comes with a hefty price tag that I'm not ready to pay out of my own pocket. warfaresims.com/?page_id=3822
In going through this, I plan to mostly focus on surface platforms, as they're the ones that seem to be the scene of the biggest planned changes
I'd love to hear inputs from folks who are smarter than me about the details as I set up, as I have no surface warfare experience.
In terms of publicly-released material, it seems like the @HudsonInstitute's recently-released naval force structure study is probably the best starting point, as it was one of the inputs into DoD's process: hudson.org/research/16406…
Going further back, Bryan Clark and @timothyawalton, two of the Hudson report's authors, provided specific proposed (and I imagine, related) surface action group constructs in a @CSBA_ report at the end of 2019: csbaonline.org/research/publi…
The Hudson report recommends the deployment of Anti-surface warfare (ASUW)/strike surface action groups (SAGs), consisting of 2 destroyers (DDGs), 2 minimally-manned corvettes (DDCs) and 5 medium unmanned surface vehicles (MUSVs).
The older CSBA report provides for comparison a fairly similar new-construct SAG (with 2 DDGs and 6 DDCs), posited as better-than-replacing 3 traditional DDGs. This seems to me like a decent starting point for the simulation.
Ok, let's fire up the sim.
To be clear folks, this is live, not some canned messaging or point-making. I haven't run this comparison yet, and have no idea how it'll turn out.
To set up the DDG's loadout, I'll use the one proposed by Bryan Clark and Mark Gunziger in their previous CSBA report on air and missile defenses: csbaonline.org/research/publi…
For a DDG, they recommended a loadout of 10% SM-3 BMD interceptors, 20% SM-6 SAMs, 15% SM-2, 25% ESSM (short range SAM), 25% Tomahawk (in the future, land-attack and anti-surface capable), and 5% vertical launch ASROC (an ASW missile).
Using the scenario editor, we can take a generic Arleigh Burke Flight III DDG and modify the loadout to approximate the proposed one.
Here is the resulting DDG weapon and sensor loadout.
I added 8 LRASM ASCMs in place of 4 of the Tomahawks and 4 of the SM-2s, since LRASM should be in the fleet in a few years. If you know more about DDGs than I do and think something should be different, please let me know!
For the corvette (aka DDC), the CSBA fleet report proposed something on the order of 2000 tons, perhaps derived from an offshore support vessel, and armed with 24-32 VLS cells and perhaps a short-range SAM (like SeaRAM).
The database has a 1900 ton Offshore Patrol Vessel deployed by New Zealand that might be a rough stand-in, in terms of hull shape, damage capacity, detectability, etc. I am happy, of course, to hear any other suggestions for classes /types to use as a base to add the VLS to.
Here is a potential loadout for the DDC: in place of the OPV's 25mm cannon, a SeaRAM launcher. And in place of its flight deck, a 32-cell VLS with the following: 10 multi-mission Tomahawks (MMT), 16 ESSM, 10 SM-6s, and 8 LRASMs. With the crew limited, so are the sensors.
For the MUSV, the CSBA study envisioned something sort of like the DARPA ACTUV prototype, unarmed for most missions but carrying sensors or decoys, and perhaps a UAV.
Fortunately, the game database actually has the ACTUV. I can also add a ScanEagle UAV, as well as some basic ESM sensors.
Ok, continuing on. Time to put this sim in run and see what happens. To the east is the proposed (I'll just call it "new"), and to the west the legacy (3 DDG) fleet.
They are about 240 NM apart, both assigned a naval anti-surface mission within a patrol box in the center.
Both sides are in EMCON (not transmitting radar, etc.) with the exception of an MQ-4 maritime patrol UAV that each side has just behind its DDGs, and which has a surface-search radar). The yellow arc shows the radar's horizon.
Initially, the only contact held is the other side's MQ-4, which is also transmitting. Both sides send out helos to patrol the box, and the new fleet's MUSV's launch Scan Eagle UAVs as well.
First contact: the MQ-4 spots one of the legacy DDGs on the horizon, but it remains unclassified.
All 3 DDGs have now been spotted, but remain unclassified. We can assume the reverse is true as well, given the other fleet's MQ-4 operating similarly.
We'll send UAVs and helos over to try to ID the contacts, and I'll tell the other side to do the same.
Our MQ-4 has now classified one of the DDGs as such, so it looks like our northern task group launched a volley of Tomahawks. Of course, there may be inbounds on the way, too.
One of our DDCs just spotted an enemy helo pretty close by, so they may have classification on us, and may have seen our missiles go by.
Yes, it looks like one of the legacy DDGs has lit off it's radar - and we appear to have an inbound missile.
*its* radar
The missiles are flying now - one of our DDGs has lit off its AMDR radar due to the inbound missiles, and it now looks like there are SM-6s inbound as well.
Just lost one of our Scan Eagles to an enemy SAM.
Inbound ASCM to one of our DDCs.
It was shot down by the nearby DDG, but now that DDG is under attack.
A successful defense, and now we have a heap of ASCMs going the other way.
Uh oh, one of our DDCs just got hit, and is sinking. Didn't even see what hit it.
There goes another DDC, again didn't catch what hit it, since it doesn't have its own air search radar.
Here's a bunch of LRASMs in endgame on a DDG, which managed to get them all.
Taking a peek at the inventories of the legacy DDGs, it looks like they're down to just a handful of long-range SM-2/6 SAMs, and otherwise only have ESSMs left.
More importantly, it looks like they're now completely out of long-range antiship missiles (ranges in red), though we wouldn't know that. They have nothing now that can hit us from that range.
Here's one of our tomahawk salvos on the center DDG. Looks like they got em.
Looks like there was an inbound salvo still in the air. But out southern DDG got them all.
Looks like we did some damage to the southernmost legacy DDG, I must have missed that engagement.
Our northern DDG is now lobbing SM-6s at its counterpart.
Looks like the southern legacy DDG is about to have a bad day...and yes, that's it for them.
Looks like the last DDG just took at hit from an SM-6.
And that's it - they're wiped out.
Here's the tale of the tape: the proposed fleet lost 2 DDCs, and in exchange sank all three "legacy" fleet DDGs.
It looks like the key factor was just the greater number of ASCMs carried on the larger number of platforms; once the DDGs got short on SAMs, that was pretty much it.
Now, the usual caveats apply:
- I'm not a surface warfare / missile defense expert
- this is a consumer-grade sim
- we're building a fleet to be able to fight our competitors, not our own ships
- this is a simplistic scenario
- etc.
So, caveat emptor. 🤷♂️Fin.
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Last week saw the publication in @ForeignAffairs of this article by Zhou Bo, a Senior Fellow at a Tsinghua University think tank and a retired Senior Colonel in the Chinese PLA.
The gist is that mostly due to US pushback at the rise of the PRC, the US-PRC relationship has deteriorated. But the two nations should talk more & work together where they can.
IMO the article has many misleading statements and half-truths, and serves as propaganda.
Zhou starts by stating the Chinese government experienced "surprise" at U.S. competition and is determined to "fight back", as if China was only reacting to an unprovoked American reaction to a peacefully-rising China.
Anyone know what this NOTAM off of Baja California is about?
Is the Russian Federation firing rockets to impact off the west coast of N America? If so, what rockets?
Ok, did a bit more looking into this this morning - bottom line, I think it's an impact area for a humdrum Russian space launch.
There's another NOTAM impact area at the same times in the Barents for Russian space launch activities.
If you connect the dots from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, to the Barents impact area, to the East Pacific impact area, they're all almost in a straight line.
So I imagine this is for a launch from there, with the stage booster drop into the Barents, and the 2nd into EastPac.
PRC FERRY UPDATE: the Bohai Ferry BO HAI BAO ZHU has deviated from its normal route across the Yellow Sea, and appears headed south.
Of note, it's transmitting a false AIS destination - that it's operating from Dalian to Yantai - when it's clearly not headed to Yantai.
At the same time, its sister ship Bo Hai Zhen Zhu now appears headed to Xiamen, after loading near Nanjing and then heading up to Ningbo, though it doesn't appear it moored at Ningbo.
As a reminder, both ferries are part of the PLA-associated Bohai Ferry Group.
Now that the 2023 ship launch numbers are in (or at least my best guess of them), it's time for an update on the last 10 years worth of PLA Navy shipbuilding, and how it compares the production from the U.S. and allied navies.
These estimates will generally cover ships launched from 2014-2023, and will include ships useful in high intensity combat/power projection: subs, carriers, amphibious assault ships, surface combatants, ocean going fleet auxiliaries (e.g., tankers), and mine warfare ships.
First, let’s look at hull count. By my estimate, the PLAN launched 157 warships over the years 2014-2023. As always, these numbers are from open source data for ship launches which China doesn't always publicize, so don't @ me if you have a niggle with them. 🤷♂️
UDPDATE: a few months back I provided this update on one of China's shipyard construction projects - the expansion of Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard—a major supplier to the PLA Navy, building mostly frigates and amphibious assault ships.
So yesterday I decided to grab some imagery (from @planet via @SkyWatchApps) to see how things were proceeding. I expected to see continued construction progress.
What I didn't expect to see is that THEY ARE ALREADY BUILDING SHIPS THERE. 😯
There have been rumors in the media that this new yard would start construction of a new class of amphibious assault ship - the Type 076. And it looks like that might well be the case. scmp.com/news/china/mil…
This is an interesting & engaging article by @james_acton32 on counterforce vs. counter-value nuclear targeting. Which targeting philosophy to follow (or even what they mean) is a question on which reasonable people can and do disagree. warontherocks.com/2023/11/two-my…
That said, I think the "myths" that the article centers on and debunks in discussing the issue are a bit of a straw man - in that IMO few people who know anything about nuclear targeting/policy actually believe them.
Let's look at the evidence he puts forward in support of Myth 1. First, there's the primary link describing the them...
Oops, broken link!
Now, this happens. Authors can't control web site changes. (Most links for my older articles are broken.) But this article is 1 day old. 🤷♂️