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Tom Shugart Profile picture
Tom Shugart
@tshugart3
Defense analyst, former submariner, pilot. @cnasdc Adjunct Senior Fellow. Founder, Archer Strategic Consulting. Opinions my own. RT=/=endorsement.
4 subscribers
Sep 27 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1. Everyone involved in reporting this clearly understands that nuclear submarines had not—yet—been built in Wuhan, and that this was a new development: a significant expansion of nuclear submarine production outside of Huludao. 1. cont'd: rumors of a new "auxiliary nuclear powerplant for electricity generation for fitting into conventional submarine designs" (like the subs they've been building at Wuhan) have been circulating for years, so not that surprising of a development.cimsec.org/pla-navys-plan…
Aug 22 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
What if I told you that as I type this there was a vessel, associated with the Chinese PLA, that *could* be equipped with many dozens of anti-ship cruise missiles—and was parked less than 4 miles from the bulk of the U.S. Atlantic Fleet.

Well guess what: it's happening—for real. Image The vessel in question is a container ship named COSCO Shipping Sakura. It's a massive ship, more than 360m long (~1200 ft), and weighing far more than a U.S. aircraft carrier. Built in 2018, It can carry more than 14000 shipping containers. Image
Aug 10 • 25 tweets • 9 min read
This USNI Proceedings article advocates a "trade denial" strategy - though not a blockade - as a "low-cost option" for deterring PRC military aggression against Taiwan.

While I like the idea of finding new ways to deter China, I have some issues with this article, as follows: My overarching concern is this: for years there's been a strain of thinking that China will never attack because the U.S. & allies could "just cut off their oil" or the like. That kind of thinking undercuts support for the necessary resources to actually deter the PRC militarily.
Jul 28 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Imagery update: looking back at some commercial imagery at Wuchang Shipyard (one of China's conventional submarine builders), if I'm not mistaken I believe there may be a new class of Chinese submarine out there. I recently acquired this interesting image of the shipyard from 26 April 2024.

On the left, you can see what appears to be a freshly-launched Hangor II-class submarine, the 1st of 8 being built for Pakistan.

You can also see the other, possibly new class of boat. Image
Jul 25 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Got some fresh @planet imagery of China's new base at Ream, Cambodia. Looks like they continue to be busy bees, constructing what looks to be a sizable naval base.

First, here's an overall comparo of where things are now-ish (6/2020) to before construction started (3/2020).
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Image They've now completed enough of the drydock & wharf that we can now see their final dimensions: right at 140m from the back of the drydock to where the caisson would go, & a 270m wharf.

Also, there's what looks like a ramp to pull smaller vessels out for maintenance. Image
Jul 16 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
So, I recently acquired some updated imagery from Wuchang Shipyard in Wuhan - China's primary shipyard for non-nuclear submarine construction.

It appears there may have been something...odd going on there in June. 🤔 First, an older image from 29 May shows nothing unusual - a presumably new-construction Yuan-class submarine (Type 039 variant) in the usual spot where newly-launched boats are fitted out.

[BTW the patchwork nature of the images is because I buy my own and pay by the area, so..]
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May 20 • 27 tweets • 8 min read
Last week saw the publication in @ForeignAffairs of this article by Zhou Bo, a Senior Fellow at a Tsinghua University think tank and a retired Senior Colonel in the Chinese PLA.

A few thoughts on the article and its publication by FA: foreignaffairs.com/united-states/… The gist is that mostly due to US pushback at the rise of the PRC, the US-PRC relationship has deteriorated. But the two nations should talk more & work together where they can.

IMO the article has many misleading statements and half-truths, and serves as propaganda.
May 16 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Anyone know what this NOTAM off of Baja California is about?
Is the Russian Federation firing rockets to impact off the west coast of N America? If so, what rockets? Image Ok, did a bit more looking into this this morning - bottom line, I think it's an impact area for a humdrum Russian space launch.

There's another NOTAM impact area at the same times in the Barents for Russian space launch activities. Image
May 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
PRC FERRY UPDATE: the Bohai Ferry BO HAI BAO ZHU has deviated from its normal route across the Yellow Sea, and appears headed south.
Of note, it's transmitting a false AIS destination - that it's operating from Dalian to Yantai - when it's clearly not headed to Yantai. Image At the same time, its sister ship Bo Hai Zhen Zhu now appears headed to Xiamen, after loading near Nanjing and then heading up to Ningbo, though it doesn't appear it moored at Ningbo. Image
Mar 9 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
Now that the 2023 ship launch numbers are in (or at least my best guess of them), it's time for an update on the last 10 years worth of PLA Navy shipbuilding, and how it compares the production from the U.S. and allied navies. These estimates will generally cover ships launched from 2014-2023, and will include ships useful in high intensity combat/power projection: subs, carriers, amphibious assault ships, surface combatants, ocean going fleet auxiliaries (e.g., tankers), and mine warfare ships.
Dec 3, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
UDPDATE: a few months back I provided this update on one of China's shipyard construction projects - the expansion of Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard—a major supplier to the PLA Navy, building mostly frigates and amphibious assault ships.
So yesterday I decided to grab some imagery (from @planet via @SkyWatchApps) to see how things were proceeding. I expected to see continued construction progress.
What I didn't expect to see is that THEY ARE ALREADY BUILDING SHIPS THERE. 😯 Image
Nov 7, 2023 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
This is an interesting & engaging article by @james_acton32 on counterforce vs. counter-value nuclear targeting. Which targeting philosophy to follow (or even what they mean) is a question on which reasonable people can and do disagree. warontherocks.com/2023/11/two-my… That said, I think the "myths" that the article centers on and debunks in discussing the issue are a bit of a straw man - in that IMO few people who know anything about nuclear targeting/policy actually believe them. Image
Oct 23, 2023 • 39 tweets • 15 min read
Ok, moving on to Part 2 of my thoughts on the 2023 China Military Power Report (CMPR).

We’ll jump straight into the PLA Rocket Force, which I think has some of the biggest news in this year’s report. Let’s get straight into the top-line numbers. The report shows major increases in every category of China’s long range missiles.
Fielded ICBM launchers jump from 300 to 500, and the number of missiles goes up from 300 to 350 (I guess they haven’t filled all those silos yet).
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Oct 23, 2023 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
This week saw the release of the 2023 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open source data.

So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report: Image Big flick: the PRC, through the increasing military capability of the PLA, is taking more coercive action against its neighbors in the region (just ask the Philippines & Taiwan).

While improving its ability to fight the U.S., it seems largely uninterested in talking anymore. Image
Sep 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
UPDATE: three of the Bo Hai ferries: Bo Hai Cui Zhu, Heng Da, and Bao Zhu; are now at what appears to be an industrial wharf in Xiamen, across the Strait from Taiwan. My guess is they're doing on-load/off-load ops for a PLA operation/exercise of some sort.

Image
Image Bo Hai Fei Zhu appears to be at anchor off a beach just southwest of Xiamen. This is consistent with previous exercises that practiced amphibious landing operations at similar beaches nearby. Image
Aug 4, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Facts:
- both the USN sailors indicted for passing sensitive national security information to PRC intelligence services were naturalized US citizens.
- at the time one of them started passing such information, he was a PRC national serving on a USN warship.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-us-… - he subsequently gained his US citizenship, as well as a SECRET-level security clearance, while active as an agent of PRC intelligence agencies.
- I don't know when the other sailor gained his citizenship (or clearance), or if he served for a time before gaining citizenship.
Jul 9, 2023 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Hey folks, if you’re looking for something to peruse today, how about some updated imagery showing construction of the Chinese PLA’s new base at Ream, Cambodia?

(Yes, the one that Cambodia & China denied just last summer.)

Let’s get to it! rfa.org/english/news/c… Since the last @googleearth imagery update was from Dec. 2022, I acquired some @planet imagery via @SkyWatchApps to see what’s going on.

The imagery below is a collage from May/June 2023, overlaid on an older GE basemap pre-construction (Mar 2020).

Here’s the overall comparo:

Jun 26, 2023 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Has China launched a 3rd Type 093B SSGN, with all three of them launched in a little over a year?
I'd say the answer is a definite "maybe". 🤔 Let's start with the first - an apparently new variant of the Shang Class SSN which appears to have a new set of vertical launch missile tubes (making it an SSGN per DoD).
This first hull was launched at Huludao in May 2022 & spotted on commercial imagery. defensenews.com/naval/2022/05/…
May 9, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A good step, but how about we build some aircraft shelters Out West that are built out of concrete, too?
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/i… Because here's the thing: assuming the PRC has regular EO/IR satellite passes over the bases we plan to use (and I assume that they do), then something like an inflatable rubber hangar that appears overnight will obviously be fake, as a real hardened shelter takes time to build.
May 4, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Stumbled onto an interesting (to me) development over at COSCO shipping, a PRC state-owned shipping company that works with the PLA, and routinely takes part in amphibious landing exercises. Turns out that due to rising demand for export of Chinese cars, COSCO has come up with a way to convert bulk carrier ships (plain old cargo ships with big, empty holds) into car carriers. Makes sense: they can transport cars out & bulk raw materials back. maritime-executive.com/article/cosco-…
May 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Just a reminder, now that we have evidence of UUV-capable Russian ships operating near Nordstream 2 at just the right time to sabotage it… …that @RStatecraft—which claims to be a serious think tank—has been flogging Seymour Hersh’s absurd America-blaming conspiracy theory for months…