Thread by @ToryFibs

Thread. The UK Government is at a cross-roads in its CV19 response. I want to lay out in the thread below why so many of the very recent decisions the authorities are making will fail. And why we are set for many thousands more infections & thousands of deaths before Christmas

First, the government in England think this is a "north of England" problem. People work in regions outside which they live. Uni students traveled outside those regions. Data will soon show CV19 Wave II across the whole of England.

2nd, Gvmnt overly focuses on hospitality as the key driver of CV19 Wave II. Data shows the opposite. Care, Work, Family & Education are the 4 key drivers. Social contacts have been kept low in hospitality settings by comparison. The virus doesn't measure "fun" before it infects

Third, the Gvmnt's CV19 approach has taken on a puritanical, almost mystical, streak. That if they stop all the things that involve fun inevitably the virus will commend society's efforts & depart accordingly. Self Flagellation will not beat the virus.

The key cause of the CV19 Wave II is social contacts. Schools equal 500 million journeys a month & many billions of social contacts. The government's own research concluded opening schools push the R rate above one.

Fourthly, government are measuring risk by exposure of the person infected. Eg kids rarely die from CV19 thus no risk. Schools do not exist in isolation. Pupils carry viral load back into society. Neither to Uni Halls. These people work in our essential front line services.

Fifth, a key part of the Gvmnt's recent CV19 strategy was to keep the economy going. But in the long run these delayed reactions only lengthen the economic problems & ultimately damage economy more. Eat Out in August. Curfews in Sept. These boomerangs cause more damage.

Herd immunity will never occur with this virus without catastrophic loss of human life. Attempting it in winter will cause a syndemic & overwhelm our NHS impacting all other admissions & A&E. We do not have the capacity. Besides, it would require 8 full blown waves & still fail.

Coronavirus Deaths in the UK exceeded 1,000 since September 1st. We have become dehumanised to the death toll because it has not reached the heights of April. Deaths will occur at lower levels but without crushing this wave will run into many thousands just a over longer period

Conclusion: by failing to focus on cutting the number of social contacts the government are on course to kill thousands. Bubbles in social life, free for all in work/study life will not work. Coronavirus cannot tell, nor either cares about, the difference.