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9 Oct, 28 tweets, 5 min read
1) How Alameda thinks about investments

(for )
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT ALAMEDA ADVICE. JUST ALAMEDA, NO ADVICE.

Also: I am not Alameda; Alameda is a team of traders. I focus on FTX and Serum. I am, however, decently involved in larger investments.

For thoughts on Alameda's trading, see @AlamedaTrabucco
3) I realize now, too late, that my Twitter feed gives a fairly non-representative view of how we think about investments.

There are a few reasons for that: mostly that I don't talk about it unless prompted, but also that I usually only talk about the good, not the bad.
4) There are a lot of projects we're less excited about, but I try not to shit on them publicly.

I don't want to hurt builders, and they haven't done anything to hurt us.

So I focus on what excites us the most.
5) We naturally get long crypto: from FTT, and SRM, and all of our investments.

And we'd like a way to hedge:

the more we are able to hedge, the more we can invest, and the more we can build.
6) So we will often short the things that are less exciting.

It's the responsible thing to do.

But that doesn't mean we have ill will.

And some, like YFI, have great builders -- and might come roaring back if/when Andre builds cool shit that's less yield farming related.
7) Sometimes we aren't bullish.

I've said many times that yield farming is a bubble, as is much of DeFi, and most of NFTs right now.

I generally get shit when I'm not bullish -- see the reaction to shorting YFI and UNI.

But, also, see the denials of .
8) It's just true, and unambiguous: crypto loves bulls and hates bears.

Because of that, and because I don't want to hurt other projects--I tend not to talk about tokens I think are overpriced.

This might have been a mistake: some thought that I thought things would go up.
9) But the truth is:

I don't know if markets will go up or down. I'm just guessing.

We all are.

And I can't control it: none of us can.

I'm just doing the best I can to pick the projects I think have huge potential.
10) And, to hedge, shorting things with less upside.

I'm not bullish on ETH-based DeFi as it exists: it just doesn't scale, and that's fatal.

But that doesn't mean future DeFi won't be huge!

And maybe even on ETH (2.0).
11) Anyway: how about when we _do_ invest?

Usually, we look for projects with huge upside:

--teams we think are great
--ideas that are new and important
--might actually build it well
--price seems too low

Sometimes we don't get all (4), and that's OK--sometimes 2-3 is enough.
12) There's another type too -- great tokenomics but everything else is meh. Sometimes we buy, but with less conviction.

But when we _do_ have conviction:

we will sometimes fight like hell for the projects we really believe in.
13) So what happens when things crash?

IDK for marginal investments.

But for the most exciting ones: we don't panic sell.

We buy, from panic sellers. Sometime we buy a lot.
14) We:

--provide liquidity
--help with listings
--give lots of advice
--provide buy-side support
--reach out to potential partners
--pinch hit when needed

And whatever else is useful.
15) There are some things we can't do:

--we can't build for the team
--we can't stop people from selling

sometimes those happen, even in exciting projects, and things are bad.

That sucks.

It is what it is.
16) We also can't control macro: trump got COVID, stimulus was canceled, and DeFi bubble burst.

So SRM, and FTT, and others, went down.

But we're still there, and when things are good, they go up.

Like today.
17) And we also feel some weak sense of duty towards partners, independent of anything else.

One was in a bad position recently.

We talked through it, and adjusted our lockup, and did what we could.
18) Another thing worth mentioning:

We try to find partnerships. We look for places where a Serum integration would be mutually beneficial, or other ways to work together.

In the end our goal isn't just buy low-sell high. If possible, it's to leave both sides better off.
19) What are examples?

HNT: cool project, huge upside, good partial progress, good price. But -- less certain on tokenomics and community.

AVAX: legit chain, has a chance to get huge.

SUSHI: high token revenue / market cap, building cool stuff. But, terrible sentiment.
20) And many more: ALPHA, TOMO, UBXT, CREAM, COMP, LEND, BAL, SXP, SUSHI, BTMX, BNB, HT, OKB, LEO...

So should you go buy these?

IDK! Maybe not.

But why not, if we did?

THERE ARE REALLY GOOD REASONS NOT TO.
21) First, we liked the price *we* bought at. But that might not be the current price!

You don't know when we bought.

Second, sometimes great projects don't go up.

Sushiswap did lots of impressive things, and SUSHI kept going down.
22) Maybe it's strategic, or maybe it's longer timescale, or maybe it's huge upside/low probability.

Or maybe it got unlucky.

Or maybe we were just wrong.
23) But in general, the patterns are:

a) huge upside
b) really cool project
c) great team
d) partnership potential

We do a lot of judgement calls.

Like:

[A] $1b of burns, $5b daily volume
[B] 0 revenue, $300m incentivized daily volume

B has > mkt cap than A.
24) If you are in the US, this might feel uncomfortable or wrong.

If you're elsewhere, you might be thinking 'obviously'.

But we're all one world.

Anyway I wrote that, reflected, and started getting longer [A].
25) FTT, SRM, and SOL are in their own category.

There are projects we invest in. Projects we support.

And then projects we'll fight like hell for.

We don't believe in them because we're long.

We're long because we believe in them.

When we have conviction -- we buy.
26) but this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Even when we really care -- sometimes tokens go down. We can't stop that.

We'll do what we can, and focus on the long term building.

Not on the short term price action.
27) LIKE SERIOUSLY THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

I said that a few times but that's not enough.

This is not investment advice.

I don't know what will go up or down.

I *really* don't know short term.

That depends on what you all do: whether you buy or sell.

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More from @SBF_Alameda

10 Oct
1) bathwater
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Really not advice of any kind.

I obviously have conflicts of interest here. Take that for what you will.
3) in case you were living under a rock, or for some reason prioritize the rest of your life above crypto twitter drama (priorities people!)--

yesterday this was proposed for CREAM governance: snapshot.page/#/cream/propos…
Read 26 tweets
7 Oct
1) I gave a short talk today for Money Dance; a summary:

2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
3) If your goal is short-term maximization in DeFi, build an ETH-based yield farm, incentivize buying your token, and sell your token.
Read 7 tweets
6 Oct
1) Advice for people whose coins are down today
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT ADVICE.
3) Well, first, that's everyone. Everyone's coin is down today. (Except USDT which is maybe up 2bps.)

But some have never been here before.

So what do you do, if you run a project, and that project's coin is down?
Read 16 tweets
4 Oct
1) Unpopular take: @cz_binance partially saved @CoinMarketCap.
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT DATA ADVICE. NOT MARKETCAP ADVICE.
3) Let me start by saying something more popular:

@coingecko has caught up to CMC. It happened slowly and then all at once.

That's extremely impressive.

And it's extremely bad news for CMC.
Read 9 tweets
4 Oct
1) What are Pools?
2) Pools are one of the key fundamental primitives of DeFi.

Pools are places you store stuff, and tokenize the ownership.
3) For instance, AMMs are Pools.

You store ETH + DAI in a Pool, and you tokenize ownership with an LP token. You can send back the LP token to get your ETH + DAI back.

Uniswap Pools have a twist: anyone can send DAI to the Pool, and get back an equal % of its ETH.
Read 11 tweets
2 Oct
1) @arjunblj wrote up a piece on his thoughts on the future of crypto.

Some responses to that below.

arjun.af/crypto-market-…
2) I mostly agree with the 2.0 section:

new liquidity/maturity coming from:

--derivatives
--borrow/lending
--automated OTC
--stablecoins

A few disagreements:

(a) @arjunblj mentions institutional products. While they are growing, they are still small and not important.
3) This might change soon -- some of them (e.g. @FireblocksHQ) are showing promise -- but so far it's mostly just promise, not adoption.

(b) lending + stablecoins as reserve asset misses something key.

where are the loans coming from? who's the ultimate lender?
Read 25 tweets

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