As a sanity check, here's a comparison of our current "fancy" 538 averages to a simple average of post-debate polls for states with at least 3 post-debate polls. As you can see, the simple and fancy methods are very close to one another. 
I mention this in part because Biden has gained 3.0 points in our national polling average since the debate, but only 1.2 points in polling average in the average swing state. It's a bit weird, but it's a direct reflection of what the polls are showing.
Also worth noting that *before* the debate, state polls tended to be a bit *better* for Biden than the national polls, implying that he was ahead by ~8 points rather than ~7. So there's likely a bit of mean reversion here.
Oops, forgot Wisconsin in that table. Sorry, Wisconsin.
It is worth mentioning that "gold standard" state polls (nonpartisan live caller w/cell phone) have been 1-2 points better for Biden than the average of all post-debate state polls. So there could be some bigger numbers for Biden coming as higher-quality state polls filter in.
Part of what *might* be going on: Some of these middling-quality pollsters do a bit of herding. High-profile national polls (e.g. NBC/WSJ Biden +14) opened the floodgates for basically anything goes in national polls, but they may be herding to pre-debate averages in state polls.
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