A few thoughts on this...
(Other folks who know much more than me should definitely chime in! Looking at you @Theresa_Chapple @JasonSalemi @COVKIDProject @EpiEllie!)
Mini thread. 1/n
(Other folks who know much more than me should definitely chime in! Looking at you @Theresa_Chapple @JasonSalemi @COVKIDProject @EpiEllie!)
Mini thread. 1/n
https://twitter.com/profemilyoster/status/1314572214621143040
I’m all for a data-driven approach & I definitely applaud the work needed to pull this data together!
But.
Epidemics & outbreaks are local.
To me, pooling data across all states-or even within a state-is asking the wrong question.
Especially since testing in kids is low. 2/
But.
Epidemics & outbreaks are local.
To me, pooling data across all states-or even within a state-is asking the wrong question.
Especially since testing in kids is low. 2/
One thing to keep in mind is that schools within states have different policies.
The data we see are not that of opening all schools - some are fully virtual, some partly, some not at all.
Not all kids in these analyses are in school.
This will underestimate any effect. 3/
The data we see are not that of opening all schools - some are fully virtual, some partly, some not at all.
Not all kids in these analyses are in school.
This will underestimate any effect. 3/
Studies based on contact tracing in a local area would be much more informative than high level stats.
These could help us understand the effects on the broader community & staff.
Staff are an important target, and there have been deaths of teachers. 4/
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
These could help us understand the effects on the broader community & staff.
Staff are an important target, and there have been deaths of teachers. 4/
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
Elementary and secondary schools don’t have the resources & testing anywhere near the level of colleges or some summer camps.
It’s not that schools CAN’T be safely opened. It’s that the resources aren’t there for many schools so caution is warranted.
5/
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
It’s not that schools CAN’T be safely opened. It’s that the resources aren’t there for many schools so caution is warranted.
5/
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
And as overconfident as the article comes off to me, this statement👇🏻is maybe the most problematic.
Reminder: Crowding ⬆️ transmission.
Limiting school to kids in need ⬇️ crowding.
Limited students IS safer vs full school attendance.
Add everyone & the risk changes.
6/
Reminder: Crowding ⬆️ transmission.
Limiting school to kids in need ⬇️ crowding.
Limited students IS safer vs full school attendance.
Add everyone & the risk changes.
6/
To me this seems like basic aresol transmission control so I find it really odd that someone claiming expertise is making such an obvious mistake. Stones and glass houses and all...
But claiming business are not mass spreaders is way off base. See: bars & eat-in restaurants. 7/
But claiming business are not mass spreaders is way off base. See: bars & eat-in restaurants. 7/
My restaurant-worker Covid+ Uncle would like a word on that...
To sum up: this is a very bold article that I’m not convinced can really back up its claims.
Does’t mean it’s wrong.
But I don’t think the evidence is nearly as strong as it is made out to be.
STILL.
Govs can still choose to put kids over bars and help schools open.
/Fin
Does’t mean it’s wrong.
But I don’t think the evidence is nearly as strong as it is made out to be.
STILL.
Govs can still choose to put kids over bars and help schools open.
/Fin
Addendum: I am coming from a somewhat risk-adverse position given that my cousin’s daughter was very ill with MIS-C earlier this summer.
20 days of fever & 15lbs of weight loss was traumatic for her & her family.
Thankfully she recovered & is doing well now but it was awful.
20 days of fever & 15lbs of weight loss was traumatic for her & her family.
Thankfully she recovered & is doing well now but it was awful.
Addendum II:
The underlying data require scrutiny as well. Great thread in the subject.
Suffice it to say this is inadequate data, especially for such bold conclusions.
The underlying data require scrutiny as well. Great thread in the subject.
Suffice it to say this is inadequate data, especially for such bold conclusions.
https://twitter.com/ashihipar/status/1313512889165152257
Jinx?
Thread has some additional perspectives though seems to be in agreement on a number of points.
Thread has some additional perspectives though seems to be in agreement on a number of points.
https://twitter.com/jeremykonyndyk/status/1314656487021727746
And a very important thread as somewhat of a counterpoint.
https://twitter.com/whitneyepi/status/1314966201479639041
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