many people have played down most or all of the factors below, for different reasons, in favor of a narrative that cast Trump as a grossly underestimated tribune of a powerful new coalition. much electoral evidence from 2017-2019 has cut against that but the myth has persisted.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1315336250241560576
now, I think a lot of us did underestimate Trump’s ability to exploit a highly specific set of conditions in 2016. but as @jbouie wrote, he needed all of them in order to win by the narrowest of margins. and he has made no concerted effort since 2016 to expand his coalition. 
the last president to win the electoral college but not the popular vote, George W. Bush, recognized that was a weakness and not a superpower, and spent 4 years trying to improve his standing with women, seniors, Hispanic voters and more. Trump has done none of that.
some people are responding to this tweet👆 as tho it also says “and that made Bush a great president & the Iraq war didn’t matter.”
obv it doesn’t say that - it’s not whitewashing his admin to note he also did stuff like NCLB & Med Pt D that was aimed at broadening his support
obv it doesn’t say that - it’s not whitewashing his admin to note he also did stuff like NCLB & Med Pt D that was aimed at broadening his support
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