“On the campaign trail and online, President Donald Trump is pushing debunked and unsupported claims that mail-in voting leads to widespread fraud.
“But in court, far from the bluster of his rallies and Twitter rants, a growing number of judges have examined the evidence he’s presented to back those claims and found it unconvincing.
“[I]n the federal court cases brought by Trump’s campaign challenging statewide policies around mail-in voting in Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, …
“judges have found Republicans’ claims of widespread fraud too speculative to justify blocking those plans altogether.
“[Judge] Ranjan’s 138-page opinion includes an exhaustive overview of the evidence submitted by both sides; the parties filed more than 300 exhibits with the court.
“He found that the evidence that Trump and the RNC submitted — which included a New York Post article claiming to describe the firsthand anonymous account of someone who committed voting fraud;
“officials in Philadelphia accidentally allowing 40 people to vote twice in this year’s primary election; and photographs that appeared to show people putting multiple ballots in a mailbox — was ‘speculative’ and ‘scant.’”

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More from @HalMarshall2309

12 Oct
The Founders were men of property and eighteenth-century views. In his book,’The Framers’ Coup: The Making of the United States Constitution,’ from 2016, Michael J. Klarman, a professor at Harvard Law School, explains …
“that they ‘had interests, prejudices, and moral blind spots. They could not foresee the future, and they made mistakes.’ Largely drawn from the landed class, they had little interest in empowering the common man, and no interest at all in empowering women and Black people.
“But, unlike many latter-day ‘constitutionalists,’ they were aware of their own shortcomings. Although they tussled long and hard over the system they created, they didn’t consider it a perfect solution …
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
“Using data from earlier in the election campaign, Professor Kim estimated that at least 20% of all suspicious activity (activity that doesn’t appear to come from a real individual) …
“could be directly traced to Russian groups that US intelligence agencies have confirmed are engaged in misinformation.
“It’s impossible to be certain exactly how active they are in Wisconsin, but Kim observes that Wisconsin is one of the most targeted states for this type of content.
Read 8 tweets
12 Oct
“An ABC/Washington Post poll found President Trump trailing by 12 points on Sunday, a result we would have called an outlier two weeks ago …
“but now fits within the balance of national post-debate polling.
“After the 12-point margin, the next most important thing about the ABC/Post poll might be when it was conducted:…
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
An excellent rundown of federal court cases involving allegations of vote by mail fraud by Buzzfeed News. buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetil…
“In Montana, US District Judge Dana Christensen dismissed a lawsuit brought by the Trump campaign, RNC, and state Republicans challenging Gov. Steve Bullock’s decision to allow counties to carry out the November election by mail-in ballots.
“Christensen noted that at a hearing in the case, lawyers for the campaign and Republican challengers ‘were compelled to concede that they cannot point to a single instance of voter fraud in Montana in any election during the last 20 years.’
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
“Money, of course, does not guarantee victory. Mr. O’Rourke lost his race, and Mr. Graham still has a good chance of winning this one. Two of the three most prominent election forecasters —
“Inside Elections and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia — say he is slightly favored to win, while the third, the Cook Political Report, calls the race a tossup.
“But Mr. Harrison’s enormous fund-raising total, a majority of which came from out-of-state donors, speaks to the intense Democratic energy nationwide that has enabled him to run a competitive race in what would, in a normal year, have been a safe Republican state.
Read 7 tweets
12 Oct
“Jaime Harrison, the Democrat challenging Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, raised an astonishing $57 million in the third quarter of 2020, the highest quarterly fund-raising total for any Senate candidate in United States history.
“Mr. Harrison did not so much break the record as shatter it: Before this year, the record was $38 million in a quarter, raised by former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas during his challenge to Senator Ted Cruz in 2018.
“Mr. Graham has not yet filed his third-quarter report with the Federal Election Commission, but Mr. Harrison’s quarterly total is more than double what Mr. Graham reported raising in the previous six quarters combined.
Read 6 tweets

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