Thread by @mattmfm

NEW: Pennsylvania poll we conducted after Trump’s release from the hospital

Biden leads Trump by +5 among LVs

Biden 51%
Trump 46%

wins-csip.com/new-whitman-in…

Both candidates have consolidated their base, with Trump winning 86% of GOP and Biden winning 89% of Democrats.

But among non-affiliated voters in Pennsylvania, Biden holds a commanding 13-point lead.

Our poll finds a historically massive voting mode gap exists in Pennsylvania:

Early/By mail (44%): Biden 74-22%
Election Day (56%): Trump 64-33%

We measure the impact Trump’s COVID diagnosis has on voter preference.

Most voters don’t think it will affect their decision. But among voters who do say it matters, more say it makes them less likely to support Trump.

Key Takeaways in Pennsylvania —

> Biden above 50 percent
> Biden winning non-affiliated voters
> Biden winning college educ. whites
> Very few undecided voters
> Trump’s COVID not a game changer

State of the Race in Pennsylvania:

Biden doing what he needs (vs. 2016) among college educated whites and non-affiliated voters to win.

But it's not a blowout like some other Pennsylvania polling has shown.

The swing in Pennsylvania may be smaller than in other Midwest states.