Today's 10-K: Cronos Group
1. was founded in 2012 in Ontario, Canada. It trades on the Nasdaq and Toronto exchanges

They describe themselves as "an innovative global cannabinoid company" Image
2. In the U.S. they have the Redwood brand, a company they bought out that is focused on hemp-based products (not under the schedule 1 scrutiny) Image
3. In Canada and the rest of the world, is going full steam ahead on building its supply chain, with multiple joint venture, listed here: Image
4. in 2019, acquired a 45% stake in Image
5. They are investing in multiple brands for different use cases. For example, the "Spinach" product is supposed to be a social and experiences brand Image
6. has three distributors with over 10% of sales, which you might expect since it is early days and such a regulated market Image
This note doesn't count, but it is hilarious seeing "advanced vaporizer technology" being written with total seriousness in a 10-K Image
7. For some reason I couldn't find the financial statements in the 10-K, so I went over to the press release.

Right away you can tell this isn't a mature company, they didn't even have any sales in the U.S. last year Image
8. They currently have over $1 billion in cash (courtesy of the investment), giving them a long leash to continue investing in growth Image
9. On the whole, gross margins looked terrible, but that was because of an inventory write-down that wasn't a cash expense. The U.S. market actually had 27% gross margins on its own Image
10. Right now trades at an EV of about $650 million, with an EV/sales of 20. So a lot of growth is still priced in, but not as much as the absurd times of 2018-2019 Image

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More from @CCM_Brett

14 Oct
On yesterday's @chitchatmoney I talked about this @mjmauboussin essay on the role of intangible investments:

morganstanley.com/im/publication…

Here are some further thoughts on the topic⬇️
Quick aside: if you want to hear the author talk about the essay at length (and definitely do a better job of explaining it than I ever could), listen to his appearance on Invest Like the Best

open.spotify.com/episode/1dGqfl…
1. As most of us know, a lot of factors go into what future Free cash flow (FCF) for a company will look like.

Most of these factors are out of our control though Image
Read 18 tweets
13 Oct
Today's 10-K, another cannabis company, Aphria : Image
1. Aphria is another Canadian grower/seller of cannabis brands. They focus on adult-use and medical products Image
2. Here is the company's CEO, Irwin Simon. Notice how it says "interim."

That is because in 2019 the old CEO had to step down after battling with short-sellers, among other things

The company still hasn't found a permanent leader

marketwatch.com/story/ceo-of-c… Image
Read 12 tweets
26 Sep
$SFIX 10-K out recently. Some interesting tidbits I found:
- Stitch Fix is less than 10 years old and only available in the U.S. and U.K.

- First new product outside of Fixes (Direct Buy) is barely one year old
- "We believe that an intelligent combination of data science and human judgment is required to deliver the personalized retail experience that consumers seek."

- The specific term "data science" is mentioned 25 times in the 10-k
Read 9 tweets
24 Sep
A good theory I heard was "investing in companies you think are inevitable."

I think a better revision may be: "Invest in companies you think are inevitable but the market doesn't understand"
for example, my top investment from a dollar-return basis has been Square

I believe this is because the market misunderstood what the Cash App was and its inevitability as the "go-to" finance app

chitchatmoney.com/cash-app-is-go…
Another permutation of this is: you think the company is inevitable, but the market understands this too. This can lead to meager future returns

I think is a prime example of that right now (although I've been wrong on them in the past)
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep
A thread of companies that spent more on capex than in 2019:

(reminder, Tesla is supposedly currently disrupting the entire auto market, semitruck market, lithium battery market, solar market, and is the leader in FSD)
For reference, spent $1.33 billion on Capex in 2019 (via @stockrow1)
1. Ford

Ford spent $7.6 billion on capex in 2019. They are a direct competitor to Tesla
Read 13 tweets
21 Sep
GPV for sellers only down 10-15% in July. Good sign Image
GPV for online has been growing at 50% clip last six quarters Image
Cash App gross profit up 200% in July. More momentum Image
Read 4 tweets

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