Annie Duke Profile picture
Oct 12, 2020 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Over the past few weeks, I have been highlighting the work of those who blurbed and today, the final day before my book’s bday, it’s time for @mjmauboussin. It would be impossible for me to fully express how much gratitude I have for Michael.

1/14
This book would be so much worse if not for the thought partnership of @mjmauboussin. In writing the book, Michael got on countless calls and Zooms with me to help me work through my ideas.

2/14
As I produced a draft of each chapter, Michael read every word offering insightful suggestions and edits of my work. He helped me work through places where I was stuck. He helped me make sense of what I was trying to say.

3/14
.@mjmauboussin encouraged me at every step of the way. Every single conversation we had made How To Decide better. Every time he sent me a chapter back, the work leveled up. He has made me a better writer and thinker and I am so grateful for that.

4/14
Why was @mjmauboussin the person I leaned on during this process to help me with the scholarship and writing? Because I cannot think of anyone who more eloquently communicates the influence of luck in our lives.

5/14
Whenever I am asked to recommend a book to help with decision making under uncertainty, the first book I recommend is The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing. ⬇️

6/14
This book by @mjmauboussin is quite simply the best discussion out there of the influence of luck in our lives.

7/14

amazon.com/Success-Equati…
.@mjmauboussin is the author of another fabulous book, Think Twice: Harnessing The Power of Counterintuition, which explores the common mental missteps we make in our decisions, like misunderstanding cause-and-effect, and how to address those errors.
8/14

amazon.com/Think-Twice-Ha…
@MJMaouboussin has also written some of the most influential and important white papers in finance. There are too many to highlight all of them but one of my favorites Who Is On The Other Side ... (cont'd)

macro-ops.com/wp-content/upl…

9/14
...(cont'd) ..... which explores the BAIT (Bias, Analysis, Information, & Technology) framework for understanding where edge comes from in trading.

Here he is talking this through BAIT on @CapitalAllocators podcast with @tseides.

capitalallocatorspodcast.com/2019/05/12/mau…

10/14
.@mjmauboussin also just wrote a fantastic paper (a mini-book really) with Dan Callahan on the migration in US equities from public to private markets. Really just the definitive piece on this, IMO.

11/14

morganstanley.com/im/publication…
Michael explores the reasons for the shift and why employee based comp is really a form of private financing for companies (biggest insight for me).

This @patrick_oshag podcast with Michael is a must listen on the topic.

12/14

investorfieldguide.com/michael-maubou…
.@mjmauboussin is a true polymath, his level of curiosity is something I admire so much. He chairs of the Board of @sfiscience & is an adjunct professor @Columbia_Biz. He reads more broadly that anyone I know. So much of what is on my bookshelf comes from his reccs.

13/14
It is just impossible for me to express how thankful I am to @mjmauboussin for his friendship and his thought-partnership. How To Decide would not be the book it is without him. Michael, I hope you know how much better this book is because of you.

14/14

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More from @AnnieDuke

Nov 18, 2022
In < 2 weeks (Nov. 28) I’m launching my 1st cohort-based decision-making class on @MavenHQ. It’s for entrepreneurs, executive-level decision makers, investors & anyone seeking to make higher quality decisions in their business, work, and personal life.

1/ 11 Image
I've been studying how to make better decisions under uncertainty my whole adult life: professional poker player career, work in cognitive science, writing 3 books about decision making & consulting w/ incredible companies like @firstround @RenegadePtnrs and @mParticle.
2/11
My clients have to make high stakes decisions under conditions of uncertainty every day.
3/11
Read 11 tweets
Nov 9, 2022
Quitting gets a bad rap. Language favors grit over quitting. We’re taught that people who quit are cowards and that quitting is an obstacle to overcome.

1/6
I reject this. I wrote #QUIT to rehabilitate quitting’s image and to show people that it is a valuable decision skill and our best tool for making decisions under uncertainty.

2/6
It allows us to change course when new information is revealed, let go of things that aren’t worthwhile, and make the best next move.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Nov 3, 2022
The most meaningful conversations your team needs to be having (that you probably aren't already) are around quitting.

#THREAD

1/4
It’s critical to understand that while your intuition is probably telling you that improving quitting behavior won’t make a difference in your decision-making or your business – that intuition is not correct.

2/4
Quitting is your secret weapon. It’s a superpower that takes time to master, but once you do, you will save your organization time, energy, and money.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31, 2022
Lead your team through this exercise during my Flight Cohort on @BalloonPlatform. You'll identify mission-critical parts to tackle first, create experiments to decide what’s worth pursuing, identify tasks to put on the backburner & build a project plan around these pieces.

1/4
I can guarantee using this framework with your team will help you make the best next move and save your team time, energy, and money.

2/4
If you’ve already purchased #QUIT, you can get a discount code for 10% off of the Balloon Flight Cohort by filling out this proof of purchase form: surveymonkey.com/r/QuitADuke

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Oct 25, 2022
Inflexible goals aren’t a good fit for a flexible world.

1/6
After we set a goal, it becomes a fixed object.

The goal becomes the object of our grit, instead of all the values expressed and balanced when we originally set the goal, even as all the inputs that led to choosing that particular goal evolve.

2/6
The conditions in the world change.

Our knowledge changes.

The weights we attach to the benefits and costs change.

Our preferences and values change.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Oct 25, 2022
In #QUIT, I outline the various cognitive and motivational forces that work against good quitting behavior. There’s sunk cost bias, desire for certainty, escalation of commitment, status quo bias, and endowment bias (to name a few).

1/9
I go into different mental models and frameworks to build good quitting behaviors into your toolbox, like thinking in expected value, increasing flexibility in goal-setting, establishing “quitting criteria” and contracts, etc.

2/9
I can’t emphasize enough how important these tools are — but it can be difficult to bring your team or company along as well, especially when collaborative settings add in a whole host of additional group dynamics and biases that work against good decision-making.

3/9
Read 9 tweets

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