NEW: Washington's influence crowd — a whole industry whose livelihood depends on predicting political fortunes — is racing to figure out what Joe Biden's administration would look like. by @rbravender & @tomlobianco in @Politicsinsider ($)
Lobbyists are poring over Biden policy platforms for clues. They're gaming out who gets Cabinet & WH gigs. Firms are eyeing new Democratic hires & Republicans are worried about job security as the left appears poised for big gains in the executive branch & on Capitol Hill.
"I'm telling people to prepare for a Democratic wave," said Jim Moran, a former Democratic congressman for Virginia who's now a lobbyist at Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough LLP.
K Street firms always hedge their bets in a two-party town where the power structure is constantly in flux. That's why it's noteworthy that even Republicans in the influence arena say there's been a big shift recently toward expecting a Biden win in November.
"The pressure from clients to predict and explain the policy changes and impacts from a Biden administration is absolutely increasing by the day," one GOP consultant told Insider.
There's less attention on what another four years would look like under Trump. "One now rarely hears, 'What will happen in a second Trump term?' because few if any companies and trade associations think it will happen," said the consultant.

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More from @dsamuelsohn

13 Oct
SCOOP: Brad Parscale planned for a stunning cash windfall during the campaign's home stretch to cover equally shocking spending but that would have left Trump 2020 broke by October, according to 3 Rs close to the president's campaign. by @tomlobianco ($)
Parscale was banking on campaign donations to miraculously double in October by about $200M more than other recent months, said one Republican close to the president.
The Republican said Trump's new campaign team, led by Bill Stepien, had to rush to cancel the spending approved by Parscale to salvage the president's bid for a second term.
Read 9 tweets
13 Oct
3 minor-party candidates who share the 2020 ballot w/ President Trump and Joe Biden tell @Politicsinsider that the revolutionary ideas they espouse, and the transformative ideals they represent, are worth your vote now more than ever. by @davelevinthal ($)
"I hope I'm a spoiler!" Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian Party candidate and only person other than Trump and Biden to appear on the presidential ballots of all 50 states and the District of Columbia, told Insider.
Green Party presidential candidate Howie Hawkins said in an exclusive interview that he too has "no qualms" about playing spoiler in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa — the most hotly contested states among the 29 (plus D.C.) where his name appears on the ballot.
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
The acting director of the White House Domestic Policy Council told @Politicsinsider that a backup plan if SCOTUS strikes down the Affordable Care Act is "being worked on" but indicated the administration hadn't settled on a solution. by @leonardkl ($)
"Obviously if the Affordable Care Act is struck down, we will be ready," said the DPC's Brooke Rollins. "If it is not, then we're going to continue to improve the current system."
The Supreme Court will hear a challenge to the ACA a week after the November 3 election. The Trump administration argues the entire law, which was signed by former President Barack Obama, should be wiped out, threatening coverage for 20 million people.
Read 5 tweets
8 Oct
There's an obvious playbook waiting for Joe Biden should he win the White House with a mandate to tear down President Donald Trump's legacy. It's the same one Trump used four years ago. @rbravender with the deep dive in @Politicsinsider ($)
Trump's early days in office were largely devoted to obliterating Obama's accomplishments. Each step of the way, he relished in moves to pull the US out of international agreements, dramatically shift priorities at federal agencies & issue a spate of executive orders.
But a Biden win means there's nothing stopping him from undoing it all right back. "That's part of what you win when you win an election is the ability to do that," said Mike Leavitt, former George W. Bush official who led Romney's 2012 presidential transition planning effort.
Read 13 tweets
6 Oct
A coronavirus stimulus deal between Democrats & the White House fell apart largely because the sides couldn't agree about how much money to give budget-crunched states, according to one of President Trump's top advisers. by @leonardkl ($) @Politicsinsider…
"Where the Democrats came down was so far out of — no pun intended — out of left field in terms of the trillions of dollars that they wanted to bail out states and cities," Brooke Rollins, acting director of the WH Domestic Policy Council, said Tuesday in an exclusive interview.
Speaking with Insider just minutes after the president's tweets to kill the deal, Rollins said there were several factors that influenced his decision to back out of talks. But she singled out the Democrats' demand for funding to the states as a no-go.
Read 8 tweets
6 Oct
Our resident Mike Penceologist @tomlobianco is who you should be reading ahead of tomorrow night's VP debate. Check it out: ($) @Politicsinsider
Tom takes us through three debates from Mike Pence's past - 1990, 2000 and 2016 - to show his political evolution and what to expect when he faces off against Democratic vice presidential rival Kamala Harris.
Pence's 1990 and 2000 debates show a snarky, at-times arrogant debater with clear skills and clean delivery — but a weak command of facts and policy.
Read 7 tweets

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