Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk

This is helpful update to that chart. Takeaway is much the same. (HT @CT_Bergstrom)

I do think there is a reasonable rationale for looking at the March/April phase a little differently than May/June onward. In early phase we were fighting this much blinder than from summer on.

https://twitter.com/bhrenton/status/1316093418397986821

The states that got hit in the first crest in March/April were largely places with major travel hubs to Europe/China, and dense populations. And due to federal failings they had little preparedness, little support, and a lot less knowledge on how to fight it.

Other states would likely have followed suit if not for the shutdowns that spread across the country from mid-March, and held in place into late April/May.

The shutdowns spared the rest of the country from NYC-like outcomes.

By May, those first-crest states had brought down their curves and stabilized hospitals.

That was a critical moment for other states (including most red states) that *hadn't* been hit badly yet. Would they apply NY's lessons or ignore them?

We all know what happened next.

So while I don't agree with erasing March-May, I do think that deserves to be seen as a distinct phase.

Failing to control the outbreak in that early phase is a little more understandable than watching what happened in NY/NJ/CT etc and concluding the same can't happen to you.

Or to put it differently, which governance failure is worse:

Mishandling a novel threat with little knowledge or warning?

Or mishandling a known threat with the benefit of both knowledge and warning?