1/ Our preprint with @LDjaparidze is online at @medrxivpreprint
"SARS-CoV-2 waves in Europe: A 2-stratum SEIRS model solution"
2/ We extended the SEIRS model to support stratified isolation levels for healthy <60 and vulnerable individuals.
3/ We forced the model to predict daily deaths curves and the reported age serology ratio for key metropolitan areas in Europe. The immunity level estimations obtained were: Madrid 43%; Catalonia 24%; Brussels 73%; and Stockholm 65%.
4/ We predict that, with the exception of Brussels, no location can return to normal life without having a second wave (albeit in Stockholm a smaller one). Those predictions are more sensitive to population, population over 60, and the reported deaths than to the IFR.
5/ For locations far from the herd immunity threshold (HIT) we searched what isolation values allow to return to normal life in 90 days while minimizing final deaths. Shockingly all isolation values for healthy <60 were negative. (i.e. coronavirus parties)
6/ Assuming an ideal 1-day long vaccination campaign with a 77% efficacy vaccine, we compared predicted final deaths of those 90-day strategies for all possible vaccination dates against a 180-day long vaccine waiting strategy with mandatory isolations.
7/ We found that mandatory isolations (i.e. schools and workplaces closed) produces more final deaths if the vaccination date is later than (Madrid: March 7 2021; Catalonia: Dec 26 2020; Paris: Jan 12 2021; London: Jan 25 2021)
8/ Secondary findings suggested by the model include: 15% of SARS-CoV-2 deaths are 'with' the virus; Very low infectiousness period may be the cause of deaths curves valleys after lockdowns; An early wave of a competing variant could explain the low death rates in Asia.
9/ Finally, we propose that the probability of covid-19 disease-related damages suffered and caused by a single individual choosing NOT to completely isolate should be used to cover those risks.
10/ If some virus is so contagious and so damaging to a large proportion of the population that the disease-related damages risks can not be covered, then that virus pretty much will be the end of normal life. SARS-CoV-2 is not.
11/ You can play with simulator that we built to analyze this at sars2seir.com/paper-09-2020/

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More from @federicolois

2 Oct
0/n Thank all of you who participated in 'The demon game'. I am taking a screenshot because when knowing the whys it loses all value (there is no more asymmetry of information). These 182 responses are 'The sample'.
1/n You may have already known about this thought experiment you just run on, mainly because there are many different variants of it in the literature. This is the one that I have seen lately:
2/n This example is good because the results are clear-cut to show 2 typical sources of error. Poor experimental setups are the bain of our existence and there are myriad ways they can go wrong.
Read 13 tweets
1 Oct
I have my badge of honor. At this rate, the fat tail event is there won't be more twitter to block. :D Image
For context, this is why he got mad with me.
And I love the depth of the rebuttal. Image
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
[1/n] Preparing everything to respond to the question: "Under our isolation epidemic model. Is it possible to correct government policy mismanagement starting at the end of July in 90 days for Madrid, Catalunya and a few other cities?" What do you think? Answers in an hour or so.
[2/n] For those that are new to this thread, you can prepare and hone your skills in modeling with the Harmless Virus Game:
[3/n] And the more difficult but also important for this new thread "The Vaccine Gamble" game:
Read 20 tweets
24 Sep
The arrival of a vaccine in the context of COVID can be modeled using game theory as a gamble over the expectation of the final death toll. Most countries will have negative payoff after August 2020. Change my mind. cc @LDjaparidze
Let's make it more interesting... Do you agree?
Context is king. For a gamble to exist we need to define clearly the parameters to observe the likely expected result. Let's start with vaccine efficacy (VE). What do you think is the range most manufacturers are looking for?
Read 24 tweets
23 Sep
If my 6yo could understand why universal mitigations like lockdowns dont work, so do you.
And while you are at it, play the game before it expires:
Read 5 tweets
22 Sep
Say you have a completly harmless virus (IFR=0) that can spread at R0=3.3 and you can find via PCR for 19 days. How many deaths per million would you find if you test all deaths in an average european city? cc @LDjaparidze
So now that I got your attention. Let's narrow it down. Our harmless virus would be found during it's spread frenzy at a rate of
OK. It seems I have a few epidemiologists playing. Here is a curve ball. Would change the results if we "Do nothing" (let it spread unmitigated) or if we mitigate it ('lockdown, masks, etc')? I know it is harmless!! Play along.
Read 16 tweets

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