1/ THREAD: Magazine cover predictions, shoeshine boy tips, and other questionable calls
"On Aug 13, 1979, the front cover of Business Week featured a crumpled share certificate in the shape of a crashed paper dart: ‘The Death of Equities.‘ "
4/ 1967: "The Go-Go era reached an epitome with Fred Carr. Carr invested in tiny growth companies and letter stock (unregistered shares, often of highly dubious companies, marked to absurd valuations). He was lionized in the press as “cool and decisive.”
6/ "The American media had been wrong on the war from the beginning. Fed by the U.S. War Department, the New York Times in the first weeks after Pearl Harbor was exaggerating small successes of the allies and under-reporting damage to the Pacific fleet."
7/ "Predictions from the Iowa Electronic Markets, in which speculators bet on election outcomes, have been much better than those of political pundits and polls. Three-quarters of the time, the IEM was more accurate than results of pre-election polls."
11/ "When the world becomes your local neighborhood [via increasingly worldwide media coverage], a 50% decline in the violent crime rate over the last two decades still means there are tens/hundreds of thousands more opportunities each day to freak out."
For fiat thought, the answer is always some permutation of “because someone told me so.” Maybe that’s a politician. Maybe it’s a business leader. Maybe it’s a public intellectual or “thought leader.”
...
18/ "Contrary to his media image as an investment guru, he has massively underperformed the index over the past 20 years. This hasn't prevented raising tens of billions of dollars: he is always in the papers visiting and opining on emerging market."
20/ "Media coverage relates positively to perceptions about the economy. Partisan bias produces a 7-9% difference in survey respondents viewing the economy as getting better."
"Highlighting positives can sap profits. So if you think, “All I hear or read is bad news!” that’s probably true! But it’s not necessarily because all is bad in the world. It’s media firms making money."
24/ "Most of the world (including the media) just looks at raw returns without adjusting for risk (and then get excited about stock A, B, or C). Sometimes they even look at arithmetic returns one year at at time without considering compounding. It's sad."
25/ "The media actively shape public attention and categories of thought, and they create an environment within which the speculative market events we see are played out." -Robert Shiller
27/ "The examples presented to us by mass media and social media typically are of the more extreme and questionable variety. That's what tends to get people's attention and makes the world look extremely polarized - and possibly polarizING."
30/ "Ignore the forecasts of Wall Street strategists. There are three types of forecasters: those that don’t know where the market is going, those that don’t know they don’t know, and those that know they don’t know but get paid a lot to pretend they do."
3/ "Value, momentum & defensive/quality applied to US individual stocks has a t-stat of 10.8. Data mining would take nearly a trillion random trials to find this.
"Applying those factors (+carry) across markets and asset classes gets a t-stat of >14."
2/ "The model's four terms describe different life stages for an individual who marries during the sample period. The intercept reflects the average life satisfaction of individuals in the baseline period [all noncohabiting years that are at least one year before marriage]."
3/ " 'How satisfied are you with your life, all things considered?' Responses are ranked on a scale from 0 (completely dissatisfied) to 10 (completely satisfied).
"We center life satisfaction scores around the annual mean of each population subsample in the original population."
1/ Short-sightedness, rates moves and a potential boost for value (Hanauer, Baltussen, Blitz, Schneider)
…
* Value spread remains wide
* Relationship between value and rates is not structural
* Extrapolative growth forecasts drive the value premium
… robeco.com/en-int/insight…
2/ "The valuation gap between cheap and expensive stocks remains extremely wide. This signals the potential for attractive returns going forward."
3/ "We observe a robust negative relationship between value returns and changes in the value spread.
"The intercept of ≈10% can be interpreted as a cleaner estimate of the value premium, given that it is purged of the time-varying effects of multiple expansions & compressions."
2/ Part 1: Basic directional strategies
Part 2: Adjusted trend, trend and carry in different risk regimes, spot trend, seasonally-adjusted carry, normalized trend, asset class trend
Part 3: Breakouts, value, acceleration, skew
Part 4: Fast mean reversion
Part 5: Relative value
3/ Related reading
Time-Series Momentum
Two Centuries of Trend Following
https://t.co/R6JQb6Cg96
Carry
https://t.co/poFk6OWQsO
Value and Momentum Everywhere
https://t.co/l0wVgAOrhL
2/ "The broadly similar pattern of adverse health and well-being reported as new-onset at 6- and 12 months among test-positives and test-negatives highlights the non-specific nature of these symptoms and suggests that multiple aetiologies may be responsible."
3/ Related reading:
Efficacy of Vaccination on Symptoms of Patients With Long COVID