Thread by @posglen

The heat is on. Cal Cunningham is banking on voters not learning about his lying to NC about his affair, and the fact that CC is being investigated by military for major code violations. The data shows that the more voters learn about this, the more the race shifts back to Tillis

Just like in 2014, pundits said that Kay Hagan was going to defeat Thom Tillis, and then she did not. Now, pundits are saying Cunningham is not being affected by his scandal, but he is.

Tillis was in a tough spot at the end of September, but the Cunningham scandal where he cheated on his wife and family during the campaign, and is now under investigation by the military, has made this a close race again.

Voters who are paying the closest attention to the race are voting for Tillis. The issue of Cunningham not telling the truth about his life has room to run all the way to Election Day.

Among the 77% who have seen, read, or heard about “Cal Cunningham sending texts about sex with a woman with whom he was having an affair,” the race is tied. Among the 38% who have seen, read, or heard a lot about it, Tillis leads 47%-44%.

The job of the Tillis campaign and his allies is to continue spotlighting all of the aspects of this, including the fact that Cunningham is being investigated by the military for violation of the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.

In addition, Cunningham’s unfavorables have moved 16 points more negative since the story broke, including a whopping net negative 26 points among independents.

Here’s the real reason the Cunningham campaign is hiding from this scandal:

A week ago, as the story broke, Cunningham’s campaign information flow was 27% more favorable/39% less favorable.

Just six days since that survey, his campaign information flow has cratered, with only 21% more favorable and 55% less favorable. He’s gone from -12 to -34 on this key measure in less than a week. Cunningham’s standing with the electorate been rocked by the revelations.

Here's the word cloud on Cunningham among those less favorable to him. This ain't pretty for him.