Early voting in Ohio: Here are some new numbers on absentee ballots and in-person numbers for a few key counties where clear and similar patterns are emerging (please note there's no assumption that a voter affiliated with a party will cast their ballot for that party):
Mahoning - the only Youngstown-area county that Trump didn't win in 2016 - has already seen a 25% increase in all absentee requests and early in-person votes compared to all in 2016, with a 41% increase fr both Democratic & unaffiliated voters and a 28% decline fr Republicans.
Trump won Lake County by more than 15 points in 2016 and some have speculated will be this year's bellwether. It's seen a 31% increase over all votes cast early in all of 2016, with more ballots from unaffiliated voters than Republican and Democratic votes together.
Lake County - again, speculated to mimic Ohio's statewide vote - has seen a 25% increase over all absentee requests and early in person voting compared to all in 2016. Democratic votes have increased by 87%, unaffiliated voters by 46%. Republican voters are down 22%.
So far in 2020, Republican-dominated Warren County is seeing a 23% increase over all absentee requests and early in person voting compared to all in 2016. Democratic votes have increased by 109% and unaffiliated voters by 47%. Republican voters are down 27%.
Montgomery County flipped to red in 2016 for the 1st time since 1988. So far in 2020, there's a 23% increase over all absentee requests and early in-person voting compared to all in 2016. Democratic votes have increased by 43%, unaffiliated voters by 40%. GOP voters are down 28%.
Once again, the partisan breakdowns are interesting but aren't meant to imply a conclusion. But now it appears unaffiliated voters are turning out in big numbers and driving these increases.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
