For pivot point enthusiast:
Have done some data analysis on where nifty opens and where it closes in terms of pivot points. Have used 2 parameters
Where nifty opens-[above pivot, above R1, below pivot, below S1]
Where nifty closes-[abv pivot, abv R1, below pivot, below S1] (1/5)
example looking at open location data : -
Opened above pivot - 44%
Opened below pivot - 30%,
Opened above R1 - 18%
Opened below S1 - 8%
If we further breakdown each category in to where nifty closed that day for each category [where it opened] we get few datapoints.. (2/5)
How to Read data?
(3/5)
Few observations[not all]..
When nifty opens above R1 there is 80% chances it will close above pivot point
When nifty opens below S1 there are 87% chances it will close below pivot point
When nifty open below S1 then there are only 7% chances it will close above R1
(4/5)
How you can use??
Can be used in strike selection for intraday option selling.
knowing the probability of where it will close looking at open type.
Use your creativity - there are many ways you can use this data.@jitendrajain@yogeeswarpal
(5/5)
These are daily pivot points
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Butterfly strategy:
This is my favorite strategy due to its risk reward Ratio
✍️What is butterfly 🦋:
The option butterfly strategy is a unique approach to trading that involves buying & selling options at different strike prices, creating a profit zone with limited risk
[1/n]
butterfly strategy consists of 3 legs:
↔️buy ITM / ATM call 1 lot
↔️sell OTM calls 2 lot and
↔️buy far OTM call 1 lot
✍️Pay off graph:
[2/n]
✍️ Types of butterfly: 1. Long call buttefly 2. Long Put butterfly [same as 1 but put side] 3. Iron-Butterfly 4. Short Call buttefly [reverse position of Long 🦋] 5. Short put Buttefly
we are going to focus on Long call butterfly and Long put butterfly in today
As we already discussed Auto and FMCG were first movers in this recovery
M&M was leader in this recovery today also up 5%
in hindsight its all good but identifying those few stocks from the basket of hundreds of stocks is herculean task
lets try to simplify the process
[1/n]
🧵
One approach is: 1. identifying a leading sector 2. identifying a leaders within those sectors. 3. Analyzing individual charts for detailed view and finding entry & SL levels
step 1 could be easy as we have to just scan 8-10 sector charts and can find the leaders.but part
[2/n]
1.Identifying a leading sector
if we mark a 1 year high & low and make that as a zone.
sector which are close to high - have demonstrated a good recovery as compared to sectors which are close to low
have converted this relationship in to mathematical form
Where i find my winners?
ok, nice question. let me start with example - from these two on whom you bet your money?
answer is obvious right?
but while trading... many people do otherwise
(1/n)
now same question for stocks..
where you bet your money?
When we have comparable option side by side - our answer will change.
but in live trading our we gets kick in finding a bottom and we love to boast about that.
(2/n)
Whats the point?
Point am here to make is we have to make our process in such a way that by default
- we analyse only winners for long and losers for short
20% of trading system is finding a good stock - entry n sl comes later.
Thread on budget day nifty movement:
Few data points for budget day. 1. Average range for day 2.4% - can use this range of intraday strike selection. 2. When nifty fell >1.5% before budget - post budget nifty rises >2% in next 4 days - @jitendrajain@yogeeswarpal
(1/4)
can use this data for taking a risk defined bullish position. 3. If we compare low post event and high post event.. On majority of occasions nifty has seen a recovery in next 4 days [average low is -1% and avg high 2.7%] - this also indicates on bullish side…
(2/4)
So can use this statistics for building your non-directional or directional strategy post budget..
statistically speaking, 1. long put or naked short futures don't make sense. 2. Can do bullish debit spreads or bullish credit spreads..
(3/4)
Thread on USDINR Trading:
Part of my capital i trade in USDINR - non-directional.
Past few months it traded in very narrow band - which is paradise for non-direction trading.
check chart.. last 3 months in just 2 Rs. Range
Today will share my December 2020 trade in USDINR
(1/4)
Entry Date: 8th December [normally i take position 40 - 45DTE]
Trade: iron condor
Strikes: sold 74.5 Ce and 73.5 PE [Jan 21 expiry]
Hedge: bought 75.5Ce and 72.5PE [Jan 21 expiry]
qty: for illustration shown 100 lots..
margin needed : 1,81,000
(2/4)
This is how pay off graph looks:
Risk reward: little under 1:1 [good for iron condors]
Adjustments: we are covered for 1 Rs on both sides. but in case of drastic move adjustments will be needed.