One thing I keep thinking about is that as consensus sees wider deployment of vaccines as the only path to normalcy (sometimes next year), what would happen if we return to "normal" with only better hygiene, test/trace, treatments, and the sheer desire/will for community?
What would happen to the risky assets in this case? How would different asset classes perform? How would sectors within an asset class perform relative to each other? How would you isolate and validate this thesis?
Well, OK, two things. With lower long-term expected returns but unrealistic target returns, as institutions expect continued accommodative policies and move out further on the risk curve, will they become the persistent dip buyers that prevent big drawdowns over the medium term?
What would happen to realized and implied market volatility? What would happen to cross asset correlation? How can you best capture this scenario?
cc: @bennpeifert on this one for his unique thoughts.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Macropotamus

Macropotamus Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @macropotamus

16 Oct
House hunting and home renovation shows set unrealistic expectations and insidiously alter viewers' priorities in life. Having a "perfect" home =/= happiness.

I avoid them.
Same way I throw away my Bloomberg Pursuits.
The older I get, my view is moving towards "don't let what you own owns you”.
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct
Equity investing:
As I continue to improve on my selection & shift my focus on names that have potential to surprise to their upward fundamentals, the discipline of selling & trimming winning positions (on valuation, sizing, lack of catalysts) keeps making me feel like an idiot.
It was "easier" when I covered cyclical sectors or traded turnaround names or companies going through changes (industry, company specific). More predictable, or said differently, less room for imagination about these companies.
With fast growing companies, it becomes tricky. I would often miss at least half of the upward movement (latter part) as fundamental stories change (outlook expansion), followed by increase in speculative interests.
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!