When we were ready for the labour market, three major industries absorbed a lot of us;

1. Oil & Gas
2. Telecommunications
3. Banking

All 3 depended (on varying degrees) on Government patronage - but all three (oil & gas in particular) are no longer in their high growth phase.
The young ones in their twenties are different. Their best and brightest work in technology. Let me say a few things about technology;
1. Nigeria's venal & corrupt elite don't understand it, thus have little stake in it.
2. This industry doesn't depend that much on govt patronage
As Nigeria's oil & gas future (and the associated patronage networks) look increasingly bleak; bright twenty-something year olds are keyed into an industry that has little to do with government patronage.

(Many are doing online/remote work, and making a killing).
I know Bourdillon with threaten to tax them till their necks choke in the near future - but there's no problem;

They'll simply migrate elsewhere (with lower costs) and continue their work.

The septuagenarians in power will find it difficult to deal with these independent youth.

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More from @cchukudebelu

25 Sep
My first consulting job took me to Kano. We were housed in a guest house. The senior manager was Brazilian, the big boss was Nigerian.

The senior manager was automatically housed in the best room, because he's "oyibo". The big boss was livid.
Mensah Otabil described Africa's "colonial legacy" is a deep inferiority complex. It still endures - even among the most educated/exposed segments of our society.

Like the Nigerian oil company guy who insisted "he be treated as an expatriate", not that locals be treated better.
You can't effectively colonize a people without proving, that somehow, you are "superior" to them. I.e. your culture is superior to theirs - and so is your technology.

Asians (Arabs, Chinese, Indians etc.) never fully accepted that Western culture was superior to theirs.
Read 6 tweets
22 Sep
Ebola was first discovered in 1976, and since then, there have been several outbreaks in Congo DRC. The first case in Nigeria was in 2014.

People may not know is Africa is big and physically isolated. It is almost impossible to travel from Nigeria to Congo DRC by road.
Africa's internal isolation, and isolation from the rest of the world might be one of the hidden factors behind the low prevalence of Covid-19.

First of all, Covid-19 is a "rich man's disease", it was introduced by international air passengers. Few Africans fly.
Heathrow, for example, has annual capacity for 30 million passengers. Lagos Airport, in contrast, can only handle 5 million.

In addition, air travel within Africa is limited. There are no direct flights between Lagos and say, Kinsasha - or even Lome, Togo.
Read 6 tweets
21 Sep
If anyone was a champion of globalization, it was Ronald Reagan. He was also pro-immigration.

He was the darling of American Evangelicals.

Trump is vocally anti-globalization and the most anti-immigration president in decades.

He too is the darling of American Evangelicals.
So what changed? Nothing to do with the Bible, but the evolution of the US economy. People were hard hit by globalization, and US demographics are at tipping point.

This is what is driving a lot of this.
Sometimes, I feel sorry for Nigerian Evangelicals/Pentecostals who have no concept/understanding of the world, or their place in it.

Many of them believe their mission in life is "to live vicariously for America and Israel".

But that is not Christianity.
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
When World War 2 ended, US told the French and British they had to let go of their African colonies

"But we need raw materials and other resources from those colonies to rebuild" was their response

The story of the "Marshall Plan" was neither as simple nor as linear as we think
One could argue that Americans have been "generous" to Africa;

But that has NEVER been the European attitude towards Africa.

Has Europe ever desired or needed a "prosperous Africa"? Not once, in 500 years. A wealthy Europe isn't dependent on a "prosperous Africa".
This isn't to suggest that "Europeans are bad". No it is just thinking realistically.

For example, no well informed Indian takes the British seriously when they talk about "shared prosperity" with India.

They had 200 years to make it happen, but they didn't.
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
US is vast, resource rich, and way out of danger - so Americans have the luxury of debating all kinds of political/economic theories.

If US were to adopt socialism, it would be the richest socialist nation on earth. Ditto for capitalism.
There's something about being a resource poor, constantly under threat city state; with a history of ethno-religious tensions like Singapore

You don't debate "proportional representation"; it is the only logical way to manage tensions between Chinese, Indian & Malay Singaporeans
You might be sympathetic to the latest libertarian arguments; but national cohesion trumps them all.

So housing is about shelter first, national cohesion second - deriving from a shared sense of ownership. You believe in capitalism, right - but not endless housing speculation.
Read 4 tweets
19 Sep
Ideally Europe should be Africa's most dynamic trading partner, but there is this thing called "history".

Post WW2, Europe was "saved" by access to the US consumer, barring that Europe would have done the only thing it knows how to do;

Exploit Africa.
France is the major driver of European engagement in Africa;

Old habits die hard.

France was a colonial power, is a colonial power - and will always behave like a colonial power in Africa;

If given the opportunity.

And Francophone Africa gives them the opportunity.
As for the rest of Europe;

Italy's interest in Africa doesn't extend beyond immigration, and what is good for ENI/AGIP. (Libya is a metaphor for Italian engagement).

Spain (for obvious reasons) is more interested in business links with Latin America.
Read 7 tweets

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