+UPDATE+

"'UK Civil servant' arrested on suspicion of breaching Official Secrets Act 'over Kim Darroch leaked memo' .
2/

The male suspect was taken to a London police station and later released on police bail to for a reappearance date in late-November.
4/

The civil servant is officially employed at the Department for International Trade - but is "not a longtime DIT employee"...

...which is suggestive as one would have expected a leak of this content to have come from FCO...
5/

Hearing that the civil servant in question's address is given as "Westminister".

Unless things have dramatically changed since I worked there this would imply someone of significant means or superiority to be able to afford a place there.

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More from @nicktolhurst

20 Oct
I'll let you into a secret..

Virtually all MPs - whether Tory or Labour - despise Brexit.
Even many of those well known as Brexiters hate it.

The whole thing is performance.
But they all know honesty about the greatest f*ck-up in post-war history is pointless...at this stage.
So here's how it'll go:

We've left EU, so they all have to pretend we're going to make a success of it.
But actually all parties will spend next 2 decades getting back to Single Market status without saying it.

Then we'll rejoin.
& have to join Euro.

Its all been for nothing.
3/

Nobody can say this publicly otherwise entire UK political system looks ridiculous.
People will feel stupid.

Brexit itself will have likely cost UK economy £500 Bn by 2030.

How can you explain this to people?

You can't.
How could you?

Its the cost of 10 million degrees.
Read 8 tweets
14 Oct
OK this is how I think Brexit endgame really playing out right now.

Some of the following is based on reported public facts, some on chatter and some merely personal speculation.

A (small) thread
2/

Boris Johnson is desperate.
He knows his disastrous Covid policies + global recession + no deal would finish UK off.
But he also knows to backtrack now finishes him off, makes UK look ridiculous & ends Conservative/UK reputation for decades.

He can do neither.

So what next?
3/

Johnson plays the only card he has left - “the stability gambit”.

He appeals to Merkel desire for european stability, green new deal & security. The 2 options above both risk UK imploding - but if Merkel could help choreograph a “fake victory” for UK he can sell to UKvoters.
Read 12 tweets
13 Oct
England 2030

Supreme Leader Laurence Fox refuses to accept Scottish independence vote as he ‘reluctantly’ agrees to parliament‘s decision to delay the general election as a mark of respect for “victory over the Europeans” in WWII.

1/
2/

Finance Minister (with special Responsibility for the fashion industry) Sir Darren Grimes introduces a tax on people who finished their degrees as he announces major clampdown on “metropolitans” as part of tax raising measures to subsidise new UK-produced “Farage” car model.
3/

Incoming BBC Chairman Julia Hartley-Brewer celebrates her promotion from OfCom office by commissioning new 24-part drama series: “Brexit: how we won the war”.

The series is entirely UK financed as global take-up slow - but costs kept low as students requisitioned for roles.
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
There was actually a way that Coronavirus could have helped Boris Johnson....and perhaps even partially hid the damage of Brexit - at least in the short term...

...but as I’ve been saying for months now that moment has passed.

A thread.
2/

Right at the beginning of COVID Johnson was remarkably bullish about the issue. And saw no reason why it would impact Brexit.

Why?

4 reasons....
3/

As EU was hit 1st, GB an island & Tory views of Europeans as anti-risk, anti-science..UK govt assumed UK would suffer the least damage of major EU states.

Such a rosy view also led to idea any COVID damage to economy could hide Brexit costs as UK economy would outperform EU.
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
+UPDATE+

Reports from Germany indicate Boris Johnson appealed to “western civilization solidarity” in his calls with Angela Merkel & senior German officials as part of his pleas for a better EU-UK deal.

Johnson said to have raised green & defence issues as “emotional package”.
2/

Boris Johnson said to have offered Merkel & German govt “full support” on current & future environmental issues as part of Trade deal plea package.
3/

Likely that Germany would consider “mini-deals” to ease Brexit even without a “grand bargain” trade deal.

Increasing confidence that “complete no deal” can be avoided. And dialogue will continue “longer than originally planned”.
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
2021 - a short thread.

In a few months it will be confirmed that going into Brexit year UK govt debt will exceed 100% of UK GDP - for the 1st time since the 1960s when the UK & global economy where swinging along nicely...
2/

As interest rates are low the UK govt will be faced with a choice
1. Borrow more
2. Raise taxes
3. Spend less

Nr. 3 will be impossible as it now appears UK is entering COVID 2nd wave in worse shape than rest of EU.
So then what...?
3/

Tax raising also difficult for a Tory govt faced with low growth & a restless No-longer-loyal-rightwing-media.

So my prediction

UK will spend next 2 years attempting to reflate economy on borrowed money.

But here’s the problem...
Read 9 tweets

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