Thread by @BauerJournalism

Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Dr. Allison Arwady, head of the Chicago Department of Public Health, will have a coronavirus update at 9:15 a.m.

I'll live tweet. Follow for updates and let me know if you have questions.

Related: blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/15/cor…

You can watch here:

https://twitter.com/chicagosmayor/status/1318196968082923521

Lightfoot: "The very concerning increase that we are seeing in COVID-19 cases across Chicago. Make no mistake: We are in the second surge. And here's why we say this. Over the past 2 weeks, daily cases have expanded to an average of over 500 new cases every day, which is more ...

"than a 50 percent increase since the beginning of this month. This is the highest daily rate we've seen in Chicago" since the tail end of the first surge back in May. "It's coinciding with a worrying increase in hospitalizations. ... We had almost 800 positive tests reported ...

"in a single day last week, marking the largest one-day jump since May 21. These numbers are extremely troubling and are consistent with what we've been seeing across Illinois and, really, across the country and world."

Lightfoot: This is the second surge Dr. Fauci and others have warned about for months.

Lightfoot: "This is exactly what we're seeing everywhere across the country and around the world. Here in Chicago, we must do something about this. You and I, individually, must do something about this right now."

Lightfoot: "I understand that a lot of sacrifices have been made over these many months, and I also understand the fatigue factor many have. But, folks, given what we're seeing and the incredible escalation of the rates of cases every day, this is not a time where we can ...

"indulge in COVID fatigue. This is a time for us to be more diligent and more determined to fight this deadly disease. This is a critical inflection point and a time for us now to make some changes. And on this point I want to be very, very clear: We have tried to be prudent ...

"in reopening our city and using the dimmer switch ... . And many people have done a terrific job in adhering to the public health guidance."

Lightfoot: "But this is a time for each of us to dig down even deeper and be more diligent, and if we don't see a dramatic turnaround in our numbers and soon, then we will not hesitate to take the steps that are necessary to save our city, save our residents, even if that ...

"means going back to some of our Phase 3 restrictions."

Lightfoot: Increases are happening across the board. "That's the troubling trend."

"I know we're all tired. I know that being diligent in the fight against COVID takes a psychological toll, takes a physical toll, but we have to be diligent and push aside the COVID fatigue."

Lightfoot: "If we pretend that COVID is not the deadly virus it is, the result, with certainty, is sickness and death. And now, as we head into the fall and winter months, it is the worst possible time to let our guard down. The virus is real. It is deadly."

Lightfoot: "Every single day, someone dies in Chicago from COVID-19. That has not stopped."

Lightfoot: "Stopping COVID-19's spread starts with each one of us remembering precisely what is effective in the first place. And, of course, it starts with face coverings. Folks, these work." It's not partisan and it's not up for debate. "We've got to double down on wearing ...

"our mask. We've got to double down on maintaining social distance. I've heard some disturbing reports that, in certain venues across the city, in some businesses, some big spaces, some houses of worship, that people are not taking it seriously. They are gathering en masse and...

"endangering themselves, their loved ones and our city. We also have to not forget that we've got to wash our hands regularly."

Lightfoot: The city is looking at "every tool" in the toolbox, including rolling back to Phase 3 restrictions. "I don't want to go there." Small businesses have already suffered. "This would be tragedy for many of them. But I've got to do what is right to protect us from this ...

"virus. So, please join me in this fight. Each of you, every one, double down, be more diligent in what you're doing to fight this disease."

Lightfoot: 2/3 of Chicagoans who got COVID-19 got it from someone they know. That means it probably came from friends, family or a coworker — and if you spread it, you'll probably spread it to someone you know.

Lightfoot: In a group of 25 people, there's a 30% chance someone in the group has COVID-19.

Lightfoot: "It's because the more people gather, the more opportunity there is for COVID-19 to spread. That's why we need to keep our group levels and gatherings as small as possible."

Lightfoot: "We also need to vigilant on limiting the number of people we come into contact with on a daily basis." That's easier said than done, especially for essential workers. "But what we can control is our home environment, which is why we need to be limiting the number ...

"of people who are coming into our homes."

Lightfoot: Over the summer, people started having dinner parties, small gatherings, card games, etc. "But I'm here to tell you that, that has to stop. And particularly as we are coming on Halloween and then Thanksgiving and then Christmas and Hanukkah and other holidays. We ...

"have to be diligent to keep down the number of people that we are allowing into our homes."

Lightfoot: "We have increasingly seen large gatherings of unmasked, unmasked, young people walking down our streets." People bar hopping, traveling to apartments, etc. "Folks, that has to stop. You are not immune to the effects and ravages of COVID-19. ...

"You are getting infected. ... When you get sick, you take that with you. You are infecting your friends and your family."

Lightfoot: "This is a warning sign. This is a call to action. This is the thing that we need to do as a community to protect ourselves. ... We don't want to see us have to go back to the kind of restrictive measures that were commonplace in March and April and May. But if we ...

"need to, we will. I won't hesitate. This is about saving lives. It's about saving your life and the life of somebody you love and care about, and the life your neighbor and the life of our city. We can't get through this without being in this together. We prolong the misery ...

"that we're seeing spiraling up. That means more devastation across the board, more deaths, more sickness, more businesses and livelihoods dramatically and maybe irrevocably impacted."

Arwady: "As always, we at the Chicago Department of Public Health have continued to follow this data every day. It is available to you, as well. Chicago.gov/coronavirus."

Arwady: "We are sounding this alarm because the increase is real."

Arwady: Our first warning sign: Chicago cases increasing "sharply, with a rate of increase similar to what we saw early in the first wave."

You can see steep increase here:

Arwady: Epidemiologists and scientists worry the most about how quickly things are changing. She's concerned we're at 508 cases. "But I expect this to keep growing."

We're not exceeding our spring peak. "There's no reason to think we may not get there if we're not able to ...

"bend that curve quickly. I fully expect this number to pass 600 potentially maybe within the week, and even to keep growing from there."

Arwady: "Another warning sign: Chicago COVID-19 cases have dramatically increased across all race/ethnicity groups. I sometimes hear people saying, 'COVID's just a problem in this part of the city or with this particular race or ethnic group' ... but look at this graph."

Arwady: "Another warning sign: Chicago cases have dramatically increased across all age groups, including among older Chicagoans."

Arwady: "Even if it is younger people who are out and about more ... they also spread it."

Arwady: "Testing continues to increase in Chicago, yes, but the number of tests needed to identify one case is decreasing. ...

"... There are a lot of people who want to say it's just an increase in testing that is driving this increase in cases ... . But it is not up the 40-50% that we're seeing cases rise."

Arwady: "Ideally, as your tests are going up, you're needing to test more and more people to find a single case. What we see here just in the last week, while the number of tests continued to go up but the number that we needed to test to find one case was going down. ...

"In fact, there is more COVID."

Arwady: We currently need to test just 19 people to find a positive result.

Arwady: Our test positivity has gone above 5%. We're 5.4% citywide, and some ZIP codes are much higher.

In this map, only two ZIPs in the lighest blue are below 5%. The darkest blue has highs of 19% positivity.

Arwady: 5.4% positivity is better than any other region in Illinois, "but it is not good, it is not in control and we cannot rest comfortably in that number."

STORY: blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/19/we-…

Arwady: Hospitalizations are on the rise in Chicago.

Arwady: Our peak was at 1,200+ back in May to a low of 249 people. But since Sept. 22, we're seeing that number rise as well — up by 25%. 316 today.

Arwady: "The cases rise first and then, unfortunately, we start to see these increases. ... If we're not able to turn things around," she expects more serious outcomes — deaths, ER visits, etc. — to go up.

Arwady: Only good news is our testing capacity is 10,000+ per day. "But we're headed the wrong way."

We'll use our reopening metrics to make decisions about pulling back.

Arwady: People worry a lot about being out and about, on the CTA, walking down the street, and you can become infected. "But I can tell you, it is not what we see driving infection."

Arwady: "In fact, where we see the spread of COVID is where we let down our guard, where we literally let down our mask. Because we feel comfortable with those we love. But the virus is just looking for opportunities to spread."

Arwady: "Please, do NOT invite anyone over to your house or apartment. This is not the time for non-essential gatherings, period."

Arwady: "You must double down on wearing those masks, even within the home. You must double down on keeping that distance. And if it is not essential, do not invite people to your home right now who do not already live there."

Arwady: "I want to be very clear that scientists agree that masks work."

Arwady: "It should cover both your mouth and your nose." They can't give you COVID.

Arwady: This uses a sneeze to show how masks protect others by stopping your germs.

Arwady: We've talked a lot about the 1918 influenza pandemic. "First, I would like to remind you that October of 1918 was the month for the surge of influenza in 1918. It was the month where they first made the decision to stop public dancing and public funerals and then, ...

"eventually, to cancel all non-essential public gatherings. It was the month they published ... how to make a mask ... . We had baseball players wearing masks in public. Folks, we do not have a cure for COVID-19. Just as there was no cure for influenza. We do not have a ...

"vaccine for COVID-19, just as, at that point, there was no vaccine for influenza. We do not even have a lot of treatments that make a major difference if people get seriously ill with COVID. The fact of the matter is, 100 years later, we're doing a lot of the same things we ...

"had to do then because this is what is in our arsenal while our scientists continue to work on medicines and vaccines. So please do your part. We flattened the curve once. We can and will do it again. In 1918 and 1919, we saw surges, we saw peaks; we saw valleys, we saw dips....

"At some level, until we get to a vaccine, we are likely to see that there. We are at the beginning of a second surge here and now is the time to do the things we have in our arsenal as well as we can."

Dr. Nancy Glick of Sinai, an infectious disease expert: "We are starting to see increased numbers of people with COVID coming into our health care system. This translate into more people coming into the emergency department ... and, unfortunately, more people requiring both ...

"oxygen and ventilatory support. Until about two weeks ago, the numbers had been pretty low and we were really not seeing many cases. Two weeks ago, things changed. We now have restarted our multi-disciplinary COVID round teams every day to make sure that people are being ...

"monitored and getting the best treatment possible."

Glick: Many health care workers were overwhelmed by the first surge. "To see it starting up again is really scary."

Glick: "We hope that people will take this seriously, that they'll do the things they need to do to stop the spread or at least blunt the second wave and wear their mask, social distance and avoid crowds. It's gonna be hard because it's winter in Chicago coming up, but I think...

"it's really important so we can prevent the second wave."

Lightfoot: "I get a report every day from Dr. Arwady and her team and then we do a deeper dive once a week and looking at the data. We started to see this uptick. The question I always ask is, 'What are you seeing in the numbers?' ... What we want to do is try to be as ...

"surgical as possible with targeted interventions. Unfortunately ... we're not seeing this as a source from one particular area. ... Obviously, if we felt like [bars and restaurants were] the source, that's easy. Easy in the sense of targeted intervention. Certainly not easy ...

"in terms of the impact on those business owners. But obviously we're looking at everything. We have to."

Lightfoot: If we were seeing this in one location, we could address that; but it's happening across the board.

Lightfoot: "We can't let down, and people have let down. They've relaxed. They're tired of being home. ... They're tired of not being in communion, if you will, with their friends and family. And we all get that. But we've got to go back to what served us well before."

That's social distancing, masking, limiting contact.

Arwady: "We actually continue to have stricter restrictions in place here in Chicago than are required at the state level. I think we've had a very good and robust interaction and engagement with industry partners across the board; that would include the restaurants and bars."

Arwady: Bars/restaurants have "by and large done a very good job" of following public health requirements. The city's business department has forced others to comply.

"Where we are seeing spread is not the places that we regulate as a city, by and large."

Arwady: "I am always conscious of balancing the economic and the health risks, of course ... . But just as we've seen in schools where the guidelines have broadly been followed, they've not been major sources of spread. Just as we've seen in transit, with a lot of careful ...

"attention to the masks and the distancing, we've not seen those major sources of spread."

Arwady: "The reason we were able to loosen the dimmer switch a little bit was because we had seen 28 days or more of decline and with that positivity under 5%. That is not where we are now. ... We will follow all of those metrics. We will be looking to make decisions about ...

"what needs to happen in the publicly regulated spaces, but the most important thing is people's behavior in their own homes and with those they love."

Lightfoot on CPS return: "I always appreciate engagement and I'd encourage those elected officials to also take advantage of the many, many ways in which" they've engaged with colleagues: briefings, calls, etc. "But as Dr. Arwady said and, again, the facts and the data have to...

"be the things we rely upon: We are not seeing, in looking at the examples of schools that have already been open since September in Chicago ... we are not seeing the schools as a source of spread. Archdioceses, charter schools, other private schools — we look at their ...

"experience very, very closely."

Lightfoot: "When you hear people talking about schools, if the first words out of their mouths are not about kids and equity, listen closely to what they're really saying. What the announcement on Friday was about is a simple but important matter of equity. Remote learning ...

"works for some. It works quite well. But, for some, it doesn't work well, despite all the energy and effort that Dr. Jackson, Dr. McDade and the whole CPS team have done to bridge the digital divide, to put devices in hands, to make sure that WiFi connectivity is there."

Lightfoot on budget: "What I will say is this: On Wednesday, we have a lot to say about the specific ways in which we propose to close the $1.2 billion gap. I've been very clear since my forecast speech on Aug. 31 that we are looking at a range of different tools because the ...

"enormity of this budget gap requires us to look at a number of different options. We always look internally first. We can't go to taxpayers and ask them for more ... ."

Lightfoot on Eddie Johnson lawsuit: "As is always the case with active litigation, I will not comment on any of the allegations, whether they are true or false."

Lightfoot: "I think that as this litigation plays itself out, there will be a lot that is revealed about the allegations. I don't think it's appropriate for me to comment on what, specifically, I know."

Lightfoot: "Eddie Johnson, obviously ... never told me he was engaged in any kind of improper relationship with Ms. Donald. He never, of course, told me that he was taking her into his office and sexually assaulting her on a regular basis. Why would he tell his boss something ...

"that outrageous and beyond the pale? ... I would have ordered that he be arrested on the spot. Now, again, lawsuits make all sorts of allegations. I know this from 30+ years of being a litigator, and I think there will be a lot in the coming days that is revealed about the ...

"allegations that Ms. Donald has made and the truth, or not, of them. And I won't say more about this litigation."

Lightfoot: "I don't remember that I said that. But we are way past that point. We're standing here today, Amy, talking about a crisis in our city. And so, I think what we should focus on is the immediate challenges that we are facing in the city."

Press conference over. STORY: blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/19/we-…