GE was, without a doubt, the greatest single-name equity short of all time. A chronically mismanaged serial earnings manipulator with unlimited GC borrow, liquid entry/exit, zero squeeze or takeout risk, and 20+ years of 14% annualized underperformance w/o drawups? Incredible.
"Wow thanks for the idea to short a massive, inefficient conglomerate with cheap borrow, artificially smoothed numbers, and a halo effect from a famous CEO completely unjustified by recent performance 20 years too late Q, there's no way we can replicate that trade again"
🎶One of these things is not like the others/One of these things just doesn't belong/an you tell which thing is not like the others/By the time I finish my song?🎶
actually two of these things are not like the others, but I like all my limbs attached to my body
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As a eminent Man Of The People, I am enjoying a fine draught of the working man’s drink, “beer”, as I do regularly. Will report further as events develop.
This tastes like a spoiled bottle of Chateau Musar 1997- I mean, I am of course enjoying this “barrel-aged sour with spices”?
I have beat a strategic retreat back to the arms of 2006 Dönnhoff Oberhäuser Brücke Riesling Auslese as my aperitif, pairing, and dessert wine all in one.
In a desperate, sad attempt to recapture even a moment of normalcy, I have acquired good takeout sushi and will be serving omakase to myself, and then posting it here.
We’ll start with a 2008 base Egly-Ouriet Blanc de Noirs Grand Cru. Easily my fave champagne to decant.
Ahhhh, how long it’s been, I don’t even remember half these names; gone like tears in the rain. First is... Red snapper? Then sea bream and something else I can’t identify. Then a mix of yellowtail and yellowtail belly, and then two sea trouts (my favorite)
Tuna and ikura, and then a break from the monotonous, inevitable march towards entropy that is life: the salmon belly required “cooking” via torch. I must oblige, even if ultimately futile.
It’s important to state for the record that I’m not cancelling Scott Alexander for some rambling 25,000 word antifeminist blog nobody read, I’m cancelling him because he’s a neural free energy crank like half the “cognitive science” quacks on here.
iN FrIsTonIAn TeRMs,
To be clear: huge swaths of cognitive science are worthless for the exact reason huge swaths of econ and quant bio are: unfalsifiable "theories" are constructed by cribbing cool-sounding concepts from physics and then cherrypicking data to "validate" them.
Taking my life into my hands tonight- at least I’ll go out with a bang.
1. A Bee’s Knees- gin, lemon, honey, and Angostura. 2. Some kind of fancy tater tot crudités 3. Salsify purée with green olive jelly and shaved leek 4. House bread and butter
Main courses- 1. Goat cheese and planed beet tart 2. Herb-crusted lamb with Parmesan funnel cake 3. Duck breast with pickled cherries 4. Some sort of coconut foam bullshit pre-dessert- I hate coconut.
Below will be a series of polls. Please answer them in order. Q4/2019 numbers (SAAR) will be provided for reference, but try and estimate each number independently of it.
In 2020, aggregate US government deficits (federal + state + local, 2019 Q4 annualized number -$1.4 trillion) will be:
In 2020, the current US trade deficit (2019 Q4 annualized number -$500 billion) will be: