Some thoughts on the Fiji fight.
How could such a bizarre series of events occur?
The first thing to understand is that there’s no such thing as a low-stakes event when it comes to Chinese diplomacy.
Especially if it involves Taiwan 1/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
How could such a bizarre series of events occur?
The first thing to understand is that there’s no such thing as a low-stakes event when it comes to Chinese diplomacy.
Especially if it involves Taiwan 1/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The 100+ memoirs of Chinese diplomats I read for my book are littered with lengthy anecdotes about expelling Taiwanese representatives from trade fairs and receptions
These stories are often portrayed as the pinnacle of the person's career: Protecting China from a rogue flag 2/
These stories are often portrayed as the pinnacle of the person's career: Protecting China from a rogue flag 2/
E.g. A diplomat in PNG wrote about his role in removing the ROC flag from an event in the '90s:
“The Chinese delegation had successfully carried out the important task the motherland had entrusted to us,” he wrote. “We succeeded because our great motherland stood behind us.” 3/
“The Chinese delegation had successfully carried out the important task the motherland had entrusted to us,” he wrote. “We succeeded because our great motherland stood behind us.” 3/
This all comes off as quite petty, but I think we should take his pride seriously.
When China established its diplomatic corps in 1949, Beijing saw competition with the ROC on Taiwan as a matter of life and death. No victory was too small. No defeat could be accepted lightly. 4/
When China established its diplomatic corps in 1949, Beijing saw competition with the ROC on Taiwan as a matter of life and death. No victory was too small. No defeat could be accepted lightly. 4/
Taiwan remains uniquely important to Chinese diplomats.
The reasons for this have shifted. The vast majority of the world’s governments now recognize Beijing, but the CCP has continued to make its promise to “reunify” with Taiwan a central plank of its domestic legitimacy 5/
The reasons for this have shifted. The vast majority of the world’s governments now recognize Beijing, but the CCP has continued to make its promise to “reunify” with Taiwan a central plank of its domestic legitimacy 5/
Former f/m Li Zhaoxing explains the thinking:
“From the overall perspective of our diplomacy, the existence of the Taiwan problem remains a huge challenge... We owe gratitude to any country large or small that recognizes the PRC as China’s sole legitimate government.” /6
“From the overall perspective of our diplomacy, the existence of the Taiwan problem remains a huge challenge... We owe gratitude to any country large or small that recognizes the PRC as China’s sole legitimate government.” /6
Li goes on to tell a story about a senior colleague who used to get drunk and continuously repeat, “the world only has one China.”
“People tell the truth when they’re drunk,” Li later wrote. “These words show the weight Chinese diplomats attach to the Taiwan issue.” 7/
“People tell the truth when they’re drunk,” Li later wrote. “These words show the weight Chinese diplomats attach to the Taiwan issue.” 7/
Then Li explains that when he lectures young diplomats, he tells them:
“Unlike other major global powers, China is not fully united. This is something that Chinese diplomats must never forget”
The utmost importance of Taiwan is central to the pedagogy of Chinese diplomacy. 8/
“Unlike other major global powers, China is not fully united. This is something that Chinese diplomats must never forget”
The utmost importance of Taiwan is central to the pedagogy of Chinese diplomacy. 8/
Now put yourself in the shoes of a Chinese diplomat under Xi.
Xi talks about the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” He talks about how Chinese diplomats need to stand up for Chinese interests. And he has demonstrated zero tolerance for those who oppose his agenda. 9/
Xi talks about the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” He talks about how Chinese diplomats need to stand up for Chinese interests. And he has demonstrated zero tolerance for those who oppose his agenda. 9/
So: you hear that China’s interests in Taiwan are being challenged at an event on YOUR patch
You’re going to go after this with everything you’ve got. Not only that, you’ll make sure that you’re seen doing it. This is a career opportunity; failing to do it is a personal risk. 9/
You’re going to go after this with everything you’ve got. Not only that, you’ll make sure that you’re seen doing it. This is a career opportunity; failing to do it is a personal risk. 9/
This much is normal -- by the standards of Chinese diplomacy
What seems to be different here is the use of physical violence, which Taiwanese officials say that Chinese diplomats initiated (an account China contests). 10/
What seems to be different here is the use of physical violence, which Taiwanese officials say that Chinese diplomats initiated (an account China contests). 10/
If Taiwan’s account is accurate, China’s behavior amounts to a step change. But it’s not unprecedented
During periods of intense nationalism or political tension at home, Chinese diplomats have often sought to keep themselves safe through displays of performative anger. 11/
During periods of intense nationalism or political tension at home, Chinese diplomats have often sought to keep themselves safe through displays of performative anger. 11/
Usually, this entails lengthy diatribes which sometimes involve shouting at foreign counterparts
In the Cultural Revolution, it sometimes involved violence. One diplomat in London was pictured wielding an axe during a fight with protesters. 12/
In the Cultural Revolution, it sometimes involved violence. One diplomat in London was pictured wielding an axe during a fight with protesters. 12/
Is the Fiji fight signal or noise? It's too early to tell
While there appears to be broad consensus that China needed to alter its diplomacy to reflect its global status (“you can’t hide an elephant,” some of them say), there seems to be significant disagreement on tactics. 13/
While there appears to be broad consensus that China needed to alter its diplomacy to reflect its global status (“you can’t hide an elephant,” some of them say), there seems to be significant disagreement on tactics. 13/
When Zhao Lijian tweeted conspiracy theories about the US Army in Wuhan earlier this year, Cui Tiankai pushed back in public. Zhao eventually adjusted his approach
In private, many Chinese diplomats are open about how much they dislike the behavior of some colleagues. 14/
In private, many Chinese diplomats are open about how much they dislike the behavior of some colleagues. 14/
The way senior Chinese diplomats allude to these events in the coming weeks will help determine whether events in Fiji were an aberration or the start of a new phase in the tactics of "wolf warrior" diplomacy. A strategic shift would require the intervention of Xi Jinping. ENDS.
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