Thread by @theBuoyantMan

Back between 2014-16, @Sanjay__Bakshi hailed Kitex Garments as the next multi bagger, put a good sum of money into Kitex at 431 odd rupees. Around that time, my favorite @amitmantri did his forensic analysis and pointed out the funny math in the financials of Kitex.

https://twitter.com/amitmantri/status/753523472253513728

Kitex has only gone down ever since Prof Sanjay had invested. Sabu was supposed to be an "intelligent fanatic" and even Ian Cassel reflected that in one of his tweets saying Sabu was a brilliant guy.

There was a very good presentation by Prof Sanjay on Intelligent Fanatics in India. The problem with such Intelligent Fanatics is that it's only visible in hindsight.

If you pick up the same characteristic traits he outlines in his books and his talks and apply to current leaders, you may not be able to pick up the future intelligent fanatics out of the current lot based on those characteristics alone. Huge case of survivorship bias here.

So, while Prof Sanjay and Ian Cassell are both well revered in the value investing community, Kitex is a stock the professor fell in love with, even more so with its MD.

He's been proven wrong, but I didn't understand the reason for him taking down the original post on Kitex.

So, my message with this thread is - while it matters that you learn the good things from everyone in the industry, look up to really experienced and successful people, don't invest based on their conviction.

Many people I know got into Kitex and burnt their hands just because the professor recommended it with such fervor. This is what is dangerous. Educate yourself, follow people like @amitmantri who call out b.s amongst listed companies, and always be skeptical of absolutes.

If anyone uses the terms "absolutely" "sureshot" "definitely" "amazing" "certainly" "surely" "unquestionably" along with anything related to stock market, run as fast as you can in the opposite direction.

The only certainty in the market is uncertainty. The only absolute in the markets is consistent and constant learning. Everything else is relative and probabilistic. Keep this in mind. Admire investors, but don't put them on pedestal and hold their views sacrosanct.