Thread by @MichaelGKagan

In Oct 2019, the Las Vegas Sheriff, threatened with litigation and pressured by the community, agreed to limit his jail's cooperation with ICE. We now have some data hinting that this likely slowed deportations and kept families together in Las Vegas. (THREAD) 1/

My book, THE BATTLE TO STAY IN AMERICA focuses on this fight, a microcosm of a struggle that has taken place across the country to cut the jail-to-deportation pipeline. This report from @TRACReports - albeit with incomplete data - indicates that these fights were worth it. 2/

Some caveats. The data - the number of detainers issued by ICE to local jails - is only a part of a larger, complex deportation pipeline. I wish we could see more, but ICE has been refusing to release some of the more revealing data to @TRACReports. 3/

In Las Vegas, we only have recent data from one of the two main portals to the deportation pipeline: the Clark County Detention Center (CCDC). We don't have data about the Las Vegas City Jail, which sucks many people with barely any criminal record into deportation. 4/

With all that in mind, here's what we can see, with data through June 2020: First, as @TRACReports explains, detainers have been in steady decline nationally. The mounting local legal and grassroots resistance is likely a big explanation. 5/
trac.syr.edu/immigration/re…

The report's main focus was on whether the pandemic slowed detainers. Nationally, the answer seems to be yes, but only for about two months (March and April 2020). As @TRACReports wrote, "by mid-May usage [of detainers] had recovered completely." 6/

@TRACReports' writeup shows that in Nevada, detainers declined from FY19 to FY20 by a faster rate than nationally - a 46% decline (v. 27% nationally). The LV Metro October 2019 retreat from 287g and from full detainer compliance is an obvious explanation. 7/

I went into the data to look specifically at the CCDC data. It shows that from the last full month before the change (Sept 2019) to the first full month after (Nov 2019), detainers dropped 30% at CCDC (v. 17% nationally). 8/

From June 2018 to June 2019, detainers at CCDC increased, even as the declined nationally. So, the deportation pipeline was ramping up in Las Vegas. But then, by June 2020, detainers dropped 47%, faster than the national rate of decline. 9/

Caveats again: Many factors can lead to trends like this. There can also be small sample size problems. I don't think this definitively proves anything. But it does support the conclusion that pressure on the Sheriff saved some people from deportation in Las Vegas. 10/

If you want to be aggressive in interpreting the data, you could say that 12-13 people per month have been spared being taken by ICE in Las Vegas, at one of our two main jails, beyond what we would expect from national trends. 11/

I wish we had more data. I wish we knew who those 12-13 people were. Is this leading ICE to focus less on people with only traffic tickets or other minor arrests? Maybe, but I don't know for sure. 12/

It is also important to ask why detainers were issued at all to CCDC after Oct '19, when @Sheriff_LVMPD said he would not hold people on detainers anymore. But this data just shows the ICE issued them; CCDC may have helped ICE informally only. We can't tell from the data. 13/

Given ICE's resistance to disclosure, we may never know everything. But this data is encouraging for everyone who worked to limit the deportation pipeline in Vegas. As I say in the book, it means that people - and possibly dozens of people - came home to their families. 13/END