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Greg Sargent Profile picture
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20 Oct, 4 tweets, 4 min read
House-district polling is telling a grim story for Trump.

I spoke to @Redistrict about all the private data he's seeing.

"Trump is underperforming 2016 margins by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts," he told me.

Much more in our interview:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict Some highlights from my chat with @Redistrict.

He says Trump is underperforming relative to 2016 by more than 10 points in upscale suburban districts.

Trump is overperforming in Hispanic districts, but overall this mirrors Biden's big national lead:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict Key point: @Redistrict says House district polling shows Biden getting halfway back to Obama-2012 levels in working class white districts across the board.

"Trump needs to get back to his 2016 numbers in those places to have any chance," he tells me.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict Final point: Trump has to boost turnout among noncollege whites *and* get a higher share of them to offset demographic change and Trump's outsize losses among educated whites.

That's possible, but...

"It's a lot to ask in 14 days," @Redistrict tells me:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

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More from @ThePlumLineGS

Greg Sargent Profile picture
20 Oct
Trump's demand this morning for William Barr to prosecute the bogus Hunter Biden affair should be understood as a display of weakness and panic. On numerous fronts, Trump's schemes to corrupt the election have imploded. Even Barr is failing him. New piece:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Nothing but failure:

* Trump's corrupt vaccine scheme fizzles

* No Durham report

* Record early voting makes stolen election far less likely

* Ron Johnson report is a sad joke

* Trump raging at media ("criminal!") for not amplifying Hunter nonsense

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Numerous news outlets have now confirmed FBI is examining whether materials on the Hunter laptop are linked to Russian disinformation.

The parallels to impeachment are glaring: Here again, Trump just wants Barr to *announce* some kind of investigation:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
15 Oct
The single most important fact about Trump's new fake scandal about Hunter Biden and his emails is that lots of news outlets are running stories about Hunter Biden and his emails. Media coverage of disinformation inevitably rewards it. My new piece:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Steve Bannon candidly explained how all this works. The key is to somehow vault the disinformation out of the conservative media bubble and into mainstream news coverage, where it gets laundered and legitimized simply by virtue of getting covered there:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
It's obvious that coverage of disinformation, even negative, rewards its purveyors.

@brianbeutler calls this the "conservative shitstorm" problem.

It's a real pitfall, and TBF, there isn't a clear answer. But media figures often won't admit to it:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 5 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
13 Oct
1) Trump just made a big concession that has largely escaped notice. But it's a very important one.

It strongly suggests that Trump no longer expects William Barr to bail him out before Election Day.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
2) At his Florida rally, Trump railed about the "Obamagate" scandal. The usual lies.

But Trump also vowed to deal with all those criminals (Hillary, Obama, Biden) "after the election."

Why? Because Barr has let it be known no big surprises are coming.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
3) This is funny, because Trump has promised his voters big revelations in the fake "Obamagate" scandal for months.

But the big story has been that his many efforts to corrupt the election are blowing up in his face.

The same is now happening with Barr:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 6 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
6 Oct
Trump's chief of staff is blocking FDA guidelines on a vaccine because they'd ensure its release comes after the election. But, by making Covid all about him and by pursuing his bottomless corruption out in the open, he's already blown it on this strategy:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Trump had a big opening to use his brush with the virus to show a shred of basic humanity towards hundreds of thousands of dead and bereaved.

But, by turning it into a megalomaniacal pageantry of North Korea-level agitprop, he blew that chance:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Here's the thing: One can envision a legitimate public debate about whether we need a vaccine faster than the scientists are willing to countenance.

But Trump has entirely blown any presumption of good faith, by corrupting everything in sight:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
5 Oct
Trump's reckless armored car stunt, which put people at grave risk to demonstrate his supposed invincibility to supporters, captures the depraved dereliction of duty he's demonstrated from the start of Covid. Authoritarian politics at its worst. New piece:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
After Trump's stunt, @DrPhillipsMD, an acting physician at Walter Reed, tweeted out his anger at the appalling risk this inflicted on those in the car.

But Dr Phillips went further on NBC today, noting that this sent an awful message to the country, too:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… Image
@DrPhillipsMD The physical invincibility of the leader is a standard authoritarian trope. Trump and his propagandists will try to spin his triumph over Covid (if it happens) into a symbol of the infallibility of his handling of it as president.

With @jasonintrator:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
2 Oct
My take:

* Sure, wish Trump well, but then get right back to work in removing him

* The news only adds to a much broader case against his towering failures

* Spare a thought for the deep injustices all this has exposed in our economy and health system:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
The pandemic has exposed so many crushing injustices. This is the most unequal recession ever. Millions lack health insurance. A rolling catastrophe in terms of testing access.

In so many ways, Trump getting infected throws this into even starker relief:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
You'd think Trump and all those around him would seize this moment to apologize to the country for their monstrous failures, now that those failures have deeply invaded the White House. How about showing some remorse right about now?

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 4 tweets

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