A thread on where we are with the COVID-19 pandemic in England, and what we need to do urgently based on current evidence. This thread also explores why the govt Tier 1-3 strategy is nothing but a distraction from the actual public health response needed. 1/N
As we know, the PHE data shows an exponential increase in daily confirmed cases of COVID-19. We are currently seeing between 25-30K daily cases. This is likely an underestimate as testing capacity has been reached. Moreover, increases are occurring across all of England. 2/N
Predictably increase in case numbers have translated over time into increasing hospitalisations across all of England, with regions in the North likely to hit NHS capacity soon if we don't act. While increases in the South appear slower, these are only lagging 3-4 wks behind. 3/N
We know that hospitalisations are doubling every 14 days in England (@IndependentSage)- with clear exponential rises. This is likely to translate into corresponding increases in deaths with a 2-3 wk time lag from increase in hospitalisations. 4/N
As there is a lag of ~4 wks from infection to death, even if we act now, we will sadly see increasing deaths over at least the next 4 wk period. We are likely to see ~2000 deaths in the next 2 wks, ~4000 in the 2 wks after, and ~8000 in the 2 wks after. 5/N
This means that many of those who will die from now to November have already been infected, and there is little we can do to prevent this. We can only manage these cases the best possible way in hospital. The most effective way to prevent deaths is to prevent infections. 6/N
This means we will inevitably now see ~6-10K deaths by December due to late action. But we can prevent more if we act quickly! What do we need to do to prevent these deaths, and more people being sick with Long COVID-19. 7/N
Cases are rising across all age groups, and across many different settings. Educational settings, including primary and secondary schools are important hubs of transmission. Using a piecemeal approach targeting only hospitality and households, as Tier1-3 do will not work. 8/N
Experts, including SAGE, iSAGE, and the CMO all agree that we need a multi-pronged approach, rather than the Tier1-3 approach. There has been little to no impact of restrictions imposed in such a piecemeal manner. 9/N
There is agreement that we need an urgent circuit breaker to curb transmission. SAGE modelling shows that a 2 wk circuit breaker could have a huge impact on case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths if introduced now. The more effectively we reduce R, the more lives we save. 10/N
But what does this mean for long-term strategy?
The idea of the March lockdown was to rapidly bring down cases, and buy time to develop good case finding systems (TTI) to enable us to then control local outbreaks effectively without needing nation-wide restrictions. 11/N
Despite having several months to prepare, we failed to develop an effective system. The slide here shows the stark contrast between the private (Serco) system, and the NHS test, trace system. If we invest in NHS based TTI, we can have effective test, trace & isolate. 12/N
It's important that such a system is backed by financial support for those who need to isolate/work from home/shield. Scaling up testing is not going to solve the problem if only 18-20% of those who need to isolate are able to (due to financial insecurity). 13/N
Important to note here, that the idea of some sort of a trade-off between COVID-19 control and the economy is a false one. The evidence overwhelmingly shows that countries that have invested in robust COVID-19 control have had less of an impact to their economies. 14/N
Similarly, the idea that COVID-19 control is divorced from providing routine healthcare to those with chronic conditions is also a false one. The more COVID-19 transmission is allowed to increase across the population, the more overwhelmed our health services will be. 15/N
The only way to protect the NHS, and enable it to provide routine care is to prevent COVID-19 infection, and prevent NHS services from being overwhelmed. Controlling COVID-19 is the only way to protect our health, and our economy. 16/N
Here is the advice by @IndependentSage. They suggest a 2 wk circuit breaker (similar to May) followed by lower level restrictions over another 3-4 wks. This period needs to be used to urgently reform the current TTI system, and provide financial support to those affected. 17/N
It is crucial to utilise this period to put in place effective case detection strategies so we can rapidly identify and control outbreaks once nation-wide restrictions are lifted. Without this we will likely find ourselves in the same situation again. 18/N
Financial support is a key part of this. We also need clear public health communication that doesn't minimise the risk posed by COVID-19 or blame the public. We also need clear regulatory frameworks for education, workplaces & other settings with support for these from govt. 19/N
We are very near seeing a repeat of March, and we're sleepwalking into a situation where tens of thousands of deaths will occur. We need to act now. Every day we wait results in hundreds of excess deaths. Inaction by govt is costing lives. 20/N
Importantly, we need a long term strategy so we are not stuck in an endless cycle of late action related lockdowns. We need effective and robust FTTIS systems so we are rapidly controlling outbreaks, as many other countries have done, without the need to return to lockdown. 21/N
We need to prevent the fire, rather than fight it once it's accelerated beyond control. END
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The idea that people are chronically ill or disabled because they don't want to get better or aren't trying to get better is borne out of nothing but abelism. It's easier to think it's the patient's fault rather than acknowledge you don't know how to help patients. 🧵
There isn't a shred of evidence to support this view, yet it gets constantly doled out by medics to patients who are struggling & would do anything to get better. The impact is further gaslighting a patient population that has been offered very little for decades.
The lack of curiosity about patients' illness means that no one delves further to try and understand it, because it's so much easier to just throw up your hands, and blame them for being ill. As if anyone would want to live with debilitating chronic illness if they had a choice.
Rather concerning that only 5% of dairy farmworkers *exposed to ill cows after H5N1 detection* wore CDC recommended PPE. H5N1 (avian influenza) is highly pathogenic, and this is really worrying, given the large numbers of spillover events that have been observed in humans lately
H5N1 has been adapting to mammals, with the recent circulating strain in dairy adapted specifically to binding to cells in the human respiratory tract. Mammal to mammal transmission has been suspected in specific outbreaks (e.g. mink in Spain), but not shown clearly in others.
Thankfully, efficient human to human transmission hasn't been observed yet, but if it's given a chance to spread across mammals in farms, with multiple spill overs into humans, it's only a matter of time.
The hubris of blaming those whose families & communities have been slaughtered by your leaders for not voting for those same leaders - because now *you* feel unsafe - while sitting in your intact homes that are not being razed to the ground, with your children alive and safe.
Implicit in this cry of American liberals is the devaluation of brown and Muslim lives. If it were their relatives murdered by their government, against their screams and protests, it's unlikely they would've voted for them. But white lives and safety always matter more.
A genocide becomes 'a single issue'. If it were a genocide of white Americans, I can guarantee it wouldn't be a 'single issue'. You can just see this by all the tweets about how Americans now feel unsafe.
If you've lived this long and have not had to realise that - *everything*- where you live, what you read, the streets you walk, what you eat, what you feel, where you work, the climate you live in, and even the air you breathe is political, I have news for you: that's privilege.
I automatically find myself looking at how people parse the world, and whether they fit into the former or the latter.
People who understand the systemically unjust & violent nature of the world, and how literally everything is shaped by capitalism, imperialism, colonialism are the people who understand the need for change, and the radical means necessary to enact this.
COVID has disproportionately affected disabled, clinically vulnerable, deprived & black/brown/indigenous communities. To say that that airborne precautions worsen inequity is BS. Rather, these protect *everyone*. If you care about equity, set air Q standards, provide respirators.
The WHO has done so much harm in this regard, & still continues to, because they simply cannot seem to acknowledge that they were wrong, and that very likely caused harm - which led to loss of life, and to chronic illness in many. We need accountability & learning here. Not lies.
If @WHO wants to restore any trust, they must acknowledge mistakes that have caused untold harm, and seek to show learning and change. None of this is happening when they say BS like this, and parade people like Farrar with more lies and BS to try to justify the unjustifiable.
I remember all those who told us that RAT sensitivity was near 100% to detect 'infectiousness' - this study reports 47% compared with RT-PCR and 80% compared with viral culture. The lowest sensitivity is for those who are asymptomatic, and also during the pre-symptomatic phase.🧵
Sensitivity of RATs tends to rise when symptoms begin, but there is infectiousness before this that may not be picked up. Apart from the obvious impacts on transmission, this also has v. important impacts on treatment for people who are clinically vulnerable.
For many people who are clinically vulnerable, the primary consideration is getting treatment to them on time. Given the low sensitivity of RATs against PCR, especially in the early periods of infection, treatment may be significantly delayed by reliance on RATs over PCR.