Some of the ideas and themes of my forthcoming book on the COVID-19 pandemic, APOLLO'S ARROW: THE PROFOUND AND ENDURING IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON THE WAY WE LIVE, bit.ly/apollosarrow which is out on October 27 via @lbsparkbooks, have been sketched by a few essays I've done. 1/
On March 11, an argument in @washingtonpost about how the epidemic virus, while exploiting our social nature, would require the same social nature (including our capacity for cooperation and teaching) to combat it washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… (see Chapter 6 of #APOLLOSARROW) 2/
On August 10, an essay in @TheEconomist on innate qualities of SARS-CoV-2 that make it a tricky virus to combat, including its ‘dispersion parameter’ that yields super-spreader events and its asymptomatic transmission economist.com/by-invitation/… (see Chapter 2 of #APOLLOSARROW) 3/
On October 15, a study released by my lab that we described in @FiveThirtyEight that shows that, unexpectedly, gathering to vote in the 2020 USA primaries did not contribute to worsening of the pandemic fivethirtyeight.com/features/votin… (see Chapter 3 of #APOLLOSARROW) 4/
On October 17, an essay in @WSJ about three phases of the COVID19 pandemic: 1) '19-22, when we cope with biological impact; 2) '22-24, when we recover from socioeconomic shock; 3) after '24, when we return to normal. wsj.com/articles/the-l… (see Chapter 7 of #APOLLOSARROW) 5/
APOLLO'S ARROW: THE PROFOUND AND ENDURING IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON THE WAY WE LIVE, bit.ly/apollosarrow is out on October 27 via @lbsparkbooks. It covers so much, including how the pandemic started, is going, and will end. #APOLLOSARROW 6/
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Recently, I’ve come to think we are quite LUCKY, in fact, with COVID-19 – because, although it’s quite transmissible, it could indeed have been much deadlier. There's no reason it couldn’t have been more... Medieval.
Imagine if COVID-19 had been deadlier. Let's talk about it. 1/
Ten months into the pandemic, we know that COVID-19 has an R0 of about 2.5-3.0. That is quite infectious. That’s about twice as transmissible as the seasonal flu, but much less than smallpox or measles. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/… 2/
We also know quite a bit about how deadly COVID-19 is. The infection fatality rate (IFR – fraction of infected people who die) is 0.5-0.8%; and the case fatality rate (CFR – fraction of people who come to medical attention who die) is about twice that. reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/… 3/
Discoveries are (amazingly enough) still being made in human anatomy. Here, we have new salivary glands: nytimes.com/2020/10/19/hea… Fine reporting by @KatherineJWu
Here we have a discovery from 2013 in the human knee:
The arbitrariness of these categories -- including the assignment of people from Djibouti, Sudan, and Somalia to the 'white' category -- should make all involved feel shamed that we have come to this.
And the university imposes a racial hierarchy too! Students can (rightly) indicate that they belong to more than one category, but then: "A student’s primary race/ethnicity is determined by the left-most column in the table above of all the categories selected."
A key to controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is decreasing social mixing, eg, by bans on gatherings. But what about elections? Let’s talk about whether the 2020 primaries changed the course of the COVID19 pandemic and what this might mean for general election on November 3. 1/
Many people are asking if in-person voting is sensible in the middle of a pandemic. COVID19, like any serious outbreak of a contagious disease, can place the virtues of public health and civic engagement into direct conflict. 2/
But we find that the voting that took place in the primaries in the Spring of 2020 had no discernible impact on the course of the COVID19 epidemic in the USA, *at the county level*, as we describe in this essay at @fivethirtyeight: fivethirtyeight.com/features/votin… 3/
The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is huge: 1) $200,000 per family; or 2) 90% of a year’s GDP; or 3) 4 times the output loss of the Great Recession; or 4) 2 times the cost of all wars since 9/11; or 5) roughly the cost of climate change in the next 50 years. 2/
About half the 16 trillion dollar [sic] economic impact of COVID is lost GDP, and the other half is the various health consequences. 3/
Let’s talk about the “Swiss cheese model” of combatting the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a classic conceptualization of how to cope with hazards, and it powerfully illustrates several features of what we are facing in the pandemic. #SwissCheeseModel (Image h/t @MackayIM) 1/
What is required to stop the spread of a pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 is achieving some kind of (minimum) threshold level of response sufficient to achieve a deflection in the trajectory of the epidemic, to bring it under control. 2/
A combination of “contact reduction” interventions (eg, school closures, gathering bans) and “transmission reduction” interventions (eg, handwashing, masking) is required. These are “non-pharmaceutical interventions” (NPI), in contrast to things like medicines and vaccines. 3/