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24 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
COTTO'S OFFICIAL PREDICTION
__________________________________

NORTH CAROLINA
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LIKELY GOP HOLD
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Despite an utterly pathetic showing with in-person early voting, North Carolina Republicans have rebounded to ...
... a point at which they are ahead of where they were at this time in 2016, when they won the state for Trump. While NC Democrats hold a colossal vote-by-mail lead, this seems unlikely to overcome the ever-better WI-GOP EV performance, as well as the almost-certain tidal ...
... wave of GOPer turnout on Election Day. Keep in mind that, in NC, far more GOPers are determined to hold their votes for ED, as well as that Independent voters are far from a progressive bastion. I anticipate that Trump will win NC by about the same margin as he did last ...
... time, though perhaps he will be a point or two off. In any case, NC is far from a sure thing for GOPers in the future, and GOP strategists should not lose sight of this unpleasant reality (for GOPers, at least).
I said "WI-GOP" in my second tweet within this thread -- I meant "NC-GOP." Apologies for any confusion.

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More from @CottoGottfried

Cotto/Gottfried Profile picture
26 Oct
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Cotto/Gottfried Profile picture
25 Oct
I have been asking myself why it is that so many folks believe that Biden is on the cusp of some landslide. My inquiry led me to the fever swamp which is the PredictIt comments board, where lefties reign supreme, and their apparent ringleader is a fellow named 'Rainbow ...
... Jeremy' (I promise that I am not making this up). RJ has less than 2K followers on Twitter, where he describes himself as a whale of PredictIt who makes a living from his betting. Some folks deem him a 'Master-of-the-Universe'-type. RJ claims that Biden has the election ...
... sewn up. RJ also claims that Biden is seriously undervalued in -- of all places -- Texas. Fortunately, for sanity's sake, the TX-PI market has not moved in a pro-Biden direction, but RJ seems to have a cadre of PI bettors on his side. These folks use his 'analyses' to ...
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Cotto/Gottfried Profile picture
24 Oct
COTTO'S OFFICIAL PREDICTION
__________________________________

WISCONSIN
__________________________________

LIKELY GOP HOLD
__________________________________

After almost a week of in-person early voting, which is counted as vote-by-mail, and a far longer duration of VBM, ...
... it is apparent that the Democrats of Wisconsin have fallen far short of their goals in this election cycle. Considering the near-certainty of massive GOP turnout on Election Day, it seems unavoidable that Trump is favored to win the state. This has been clear enough for ...
... well over a week now, but after GOPers gained a narrow majority with combined VBM/EV returns (per TargetSmart), the situation looks beyond doubt at the present time. While WI-Dems can theoretically mount a comeback over the next week, if such a thing has not happened ...
Read 4 tweets
Cotto/Gottfried Profile picture
21 Oct
I think that some folks are baselessly panicking over Florida because they expected the race here to be easy -- a four-point Trump win! These folks deserve to be unnerved because fools and their happiness, like fools and their money, are soon parted. As I have never ...
... deviated from saying, FL will be likely two-point race. I anticipate DJT winning by that margin, given the GOP dominance with in-person early voting and the upcoming GOP tidal wave on Election Day. Those of you who are defecating yourselves over the reality of a close ...
... race in Florida deserve every second of what you are feeling. I warned you that the election would be tight on innumerable occasions. Now you are waking up to the reality of my words. No sympathy whatsoever for you. Adapt to the reality of FL's closeness and move along.
Read 4 tweets
Cotto/Gottfried Profile picture
20 Oct
DJT's surge with Venezuelan voters (read that Politico article) is yet more reason as to why the 'traditionalist conservative' and 'blue collar populist' approach to GOP politics (i.e. white grievance-mongering) is not going to work. No small contribution to DJT's likely ...
... Florida win is his outreach to Venezuelans, many of whom apparently spurned him four years ago. The GOP has to reach out to new folks and it cannot go the Tim 'SJW-man' Scott or Jeb 'Amnesty-for-All' Bush route. This means that GOPers must approach new constituencies on ...
... the basis of bread-and-butter issues, and this is precisely what DJT did with Venezuelans in Florida. The end result is that he captivates support among a majority of its Democrats. The 'blue collar populists' and 'traditional conservatives' who want to whine about ...
Read 4 tweets
Cotto/Gottfried Profile picture
20 Jul
I have been asking myself this since 2018, when Seminole went for Gillum. I think that Seminole is attracting young singles who not only commute to Orlando, but are gentrifying Sanford. It also has lots of soccer moms and college-educated GOP men who fit the Never Trump ...
... stereotype almost perfectly. Lake, meanwhile, is attracting families, many of whom are spectacularly wealthy (Montverde, Mt Dora, the lakeside districts of Clermont/Minneola), and almost all of whom commute to Orlando, but do not wish to live in Orange County due to its ...
... political climate and other factors which negatively influence one's quality of life. Lots of well-to-do families can be found in Seminole as well, and many of these vote GOP, but Seminole has more yuppie types who are either champagne socialists in-training or the ...
Read 4 tweets

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