Thread by @EricLiptonNYT

Thread: I spent many hours talking to the authors of the key federal document from 2007 that explains why the United States went into lockdown as the pandemic spread early this year--and why schools were closed. centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2007/cbnre…

Their research focused on the need for so-called non pharmaceutical interventions when a pandemic hit, and there were no known/proven vaccines or treatments.

I wrote a story early this year about the little-known federal employees who crafted this policy--and how their actions likely helped save countless lives this year @apoorva_nyc nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/…

One core element in this 2007 report was the need to move quickly, once the virus was confirmed, and to consider gathering places, including closing schools--based on research of the 1918 flu outbreak

Yes, there was also a particular focus on the importance of considering closing schools--and this was controversial even back in 2007 when the policy was being formed. But the belief was that schools would play a major role in virus spread.

So why am I writing this thread? Just reflecting as the debate continues over role schools have played in this real-life pandemic. It may be as my colleague @apoorva_nyc wrote, that schools (particularly at elementary level) are not a major vector. nytimes.com/2020/10/22/hea…

I still admire greatly the work that the team of pandemic experts did back more than a decade ago to develop the social distancing policy. They could never have known what the specific virus might be--who was more or less contagious. They developed a plan. We used it.

Their plan also never envisioned that the entire United States would have to go into lockdown. It was called "Targeted Layered Nonpharmaceutical Measures." Only reason a national lockdown was necessary was in 2020 was US didn't have a robust testing system. We were flying blind.

Yes, we are about to enter a period when all closure steps we took will be re-evaluated. Key for future is to know where the virus is, as it begins to spread. Without that info, massive and economic and social disruption via widespread shutdowns will again be hard to avoid.