🤔
This is from theatlantic.com/family/archive…

Yes, I suppose if you cherry-pick your starting point, and assume that a change of any size is significant, you can interpret a flat line as a “trend”.
I didn't go find my own data, by the way, I literally just clicked the link in the article.
There's more. 🤔
Yes, if you use an insanely truncated y-axis, you can make a drop of about 5% over more than 40 years look like a crisis.
Here's a much better analysis from @OurWorldInData: “in the majority of countries the trend is positive”, and life satisfaction is correlated with income, both within and between countries: ourworldindata.org/happiness-and-…
The thing is, Brooks didn't even need to exaggerate the facts to make his point. He could have just said “amid these advances in quality of life across the income scale, average happiness is *not increasing* in the U.S.” And then written the exact same article afterwards.
The whole article is just a justification for a homey platitude that amounts to “money can't buy happiness”, with some blame on the “consumerocracy, bureaucracy, and technocracy” which supposedly don't deliver what they promise:
Did you notice the switch there? Consumer purchases promise beauty and entertainment—but don't provide love, purpose and meaning. In other words, they only deliver what they promise, not what they *don't* promise.

Brooks then concludes the opposite: that a promise was broken.
I *might* even agree with some of Brooks's conclusions, depending on how they're formulated. But this is a very poor way to argue for them.

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More from @jasoncrawford

24 Oct
Everyone knows that correlation is not causation.

Many people don't know that in scientific jargon, “predict” and “explain” are *also* not causation. They are forms of correlation.

These terms can cause extreme miscommunication.
(Technically, “association” might be a better term than “correlation”, which can have a narrower technical meaning in statistics. But since I'm writing this for non-experts, I'm going to use the term “correlation” in the colloquial, wider sense.)
In lay usage, “X predicts Y” implies that X comes *before* Y. Predictions are about the future.

In statistics, there is no time implication at all. It is just a type of correlation.
Read 8 tweets
24 Oct
This is a pretty bald-faced admission from a @washingtonpost editor: “journalism, particularly at the highest level, is about raw power.” cjr.org/public_editor/…
I mean, @elonmusk decides he doesn't need a PR department, and this guy's reaction is: “this is about power. We need to take some back.” Literally—that is a quote from the piece.
“All I know is that there is only one way the press maintains its power in society: By metaphorically putting the heads of powerful people on pikes.”

Wow.
Read 5 tweets
23 Oct
Lately both Facebook and Twitter have been blocking, restricting, or banning content & accounts in what seems to be an arbitrary or at least haphazard way.

You may feel powerless to do anything about this—but you're not. There is something you can do:
Subscribe directly to your favorite accounts, by email or RSS.

Twitter and Facebook are centralized, but web, email, and RSS are decentralized. If you subscribe directly, they can always reach you. You can't get banned from email.
If you like my content and want to keep getting it, subscribe by email here:
rootsofprogress.org/subscribe

I don't expect to be banned by either network anytime soon—but on principle, I own my domain and host my own site in order to control my content and audience.
Read 6 tweets
25 Sep
Industrial civilization needs an owner's manual.
People are suggesting books on economics and philosophy, which is good. But I literally meant the basics. Where does energy come from, and why? How do we make steel? Cement? Textiles? What is needed to grow enough food to feed the planet? How do vaccines work? Computers? Etc…
People who can't answer these questions even at a very basic level still express very strong opinions on things like nuclear power, gas cars, plastic bags, etc.

We need *industrial literacy.* And people should start to feel at least *slightly* embarrassed if they don't have it.
Read 7 tweets
23 Sep
This. Arguably the greatest achievement of the American republic was the end to both unreplaceable tyrants-for-life, and bloody wars of succession among pretenders to the throne. I can't think of anything more important in politics than preserving the peaceful transfer of power.
“The worst case, however, is not that Trump rejects the election outcome. The worst case is that he uses his power to prevent a decisive outcome against him.” theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
“If you are a voter, think about voting in person after all. More than half a million postal votes were rejected in this year’s primaries, even without Trump trying to suppress them. If you are at relatively low risk for COVID-19, volunteer to work at the polls.
Read 7 tweets
22 Sep
Suppose there is a set of ideas circulating that has a grain of truth but is being interpreted and applied by many in a bad way.

Should you steelman the ideas, to acknowledge and draw out value in them?

Or fight the ideas, to counter the bad influence they are having on others?
For context, I'm not asking about what you do in the privacy of your own thinking, but what you should do in public discourse: what you choose to write or speak about.
Put another way, if someone asks, what do you think of X? Do you answer according to:

1. The most charitable interpretation of X? Or its original meaning and intent?

2. How X is actually being interpreted and applied by most people today; how it is actually affecting the world?
Read 4 tweets

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