Thread by @StatesPoll

2020 Electoral College Forecast Map
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden
October 25~ 2020.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632919336…
Post will continue to be updated.
#ElectoralMap #ElectoralCollegeMap2020 #Election2020
#Forecast #Election2020Map #ElectoralCollege

Wisconsin: Trump vs Biden
Gravis , 10/23. 677 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632918928…
#Election2020 #Wisconsin2020 #WI2020 #swingstates
(Fixed error)

Nevada: Tilt R.
I don't get it why ppl are saying NV is Lean R on my map.

Based on TargetSmart Model CA(Didnt vote 2016)
D +879K+IND leads = 1 Million x 2(considered EV share)
=2 Million + ED
I guess DEM might add +2.5 million vote margins in California compare with 2016.
2016 NPV: Hillary +2.1%
2020 NPV(I guess total 155 Million): Biden +4.0%ish

finally @trafalgar_group
open Party ID % data on the Crosstab.
I like it. more reliable.

Michigan: Trump vs Biden
Gravis, 10/24. 679 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632961349…
#Election2020 #Michigan2020 #MI2020 #swingstates

Georgia: Trump vs Biden.
Yougov 10/20-10/23, 1,090 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632961884…
#Election2020 #Georgia2020 #GA2020

North Carolina: Trump vs Biden.
NCSen: Tillis vs Cunningham
Yougov, 10/20-10/23. 1,022 LV.
My Analysis Post:statespoll.com/post/632962518…
#Election2020 #NorthCarolina2020 #NC2020 #NCSen2020

Florida: Trump vs Biden.
Yougov, 10/20-10/23. 1,228 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632963089…
#Election2020 #FL2020 #Florida2020

imo Key Counties in Swing States
(Population/Position)

1. MI: Kent/Oakland/
Saginaw(Effect on Suburbs/Rural MI Both)
2. WI: WOW/Brown/Racine
3. PA: Dauphin/Lehigh
Allegheny,Montgomery<-(Margins)

4. MN: Dakota/Washington
Stearns(effect on Rural MN/Twin Cities Suburbs both)

It seems many Biden supproters in talkelections.org
dislike @trafalgar_group so much. about Poll numbers.

https://twitter.com/svengeorge/status/1320412447870779395

#COSen2020 in play?
targetearly.targetsmart.com
Colorado. October 25.
Oct 24. 1,602,179+ casted ballot.(57.6% of 2016 Total)
DEM 50.8% / REP 40.0% / IND 9.1%

Dem's leads isn't that huge.
And Gardner gets +3%ish higher than Trump in poll
+ED Effect
I guess now COSen Race is a Lean D

with My Adjusted % Poll numbers
PA: Tilt Trump. But I can't sure about VBM return %
That's why PA is toss up on my current map.
#PA2020

Minnesota Early Voting Analysis October 25.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/633001524…
#Minnesota2020 #MN2020 #Election2020 #MNSen2020

Current My Minnesota Map. October 25. 2020
Based on Early Voting(Targetsmart) Model +
Poll numbers(Adjusted %)
Minnesota Early Voting Analysis October 25.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/633001524…
#Minnesota2020 #MN2020 #Election2020

Key Counties in Minnesota
(Population/Position)

Dakota/Washington
Stearns(effect on Rural MN/Twin Cities Suburbs both)
#MN2020 #MNSen2020

https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1319984387891425280

Wisconsin Early Voting Analysis October 25.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/633006764…
#Wisconsin2020 #WI2020 #Election2020

I followed back of course.
This screenshot, I captured just after I noticed

* Rating change, NM: Lean->Likely D

https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1319854082677338113

Texas: Trump vs Biden
University of Texas at Tyler, 10/13-10/20. 925 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/633022385…
#TX2020 #Texas2020

Georgia: Trump vs Biden
GASen: Perdue vs Ossoff
AJC 10/14-10/23, 1,145 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/633036015…
#Georgia2020 #GA2020 #Election2020 #GASen2020

Yougov MI+PA+WI Poll. 10/13-10/21. Total 2,197 LV
(I can't find seperated numbers of each state)
drive.google.com/file/d/1h5XfJ3…
DEM: Biden 95% / Trump 4%
REP: T 91% / B 7%
IND: T 44% / B 41%
With my model approximately
MI/WI: T 50.2% / B 47.0%
PA: T 49.8% / B 47.56%
#RustBelt2020

again, I'm neutral. if ealry voting numbers are favoring DEM instead of favor REP(like now).
My map could be very different.
Like Biden 290+@. Trump 248-@

Accoding to AJC Georgia Poll 10/14-10/23, 1,145 LV.
Trump gets '9.5%' among IND in GA.
'9.5%'
I guess Not very realistic sample.
#Georgia2020 #GA2020

Miami-Dade County Poll: Oct 20-22, 402 LV.

Biden 58% / Trump 37%. Biden +21%

FYI) 2016 Results Hillary 63.68 / Trump 34.07%
Hillary +29.61%(+290,147 votes)
floridapolitics.com/archives/37719…
#MiamiDade #CountyPoll #FL2020 #Election2020

Texas: Trump vs Biden
Yougov, 10/13-10/20. 1,000 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/633051947…
#TX2020 #Texas2020

2020 Election Wisconsin Forecast Map
Based on Early Voting Model + Polls(adjusted %)
#Election2020 #Elections2020 #Wisconsin2020 #WI2020