Who influenced you most on the #coronavirus pandemic? My list.
1. @balajis pierced my bubble when he started posting about the virus back in January, when most Silicon Valley ppl knew little & few imagined what it could become. He was prescient
2. @trvrb quickly started appearing in my @Twitter feed. After over a year with no posts, he started posting on Jan 11th 2020 and never stopped. His work with strains opened my eyes to uncontrolled community spread.
These early voices woke me up. After them, I started discovering others that would help me understand the pandemic.
4. One of the most interesting ones is Donald McNeill, a NYT reporter who just won an award for his reporting. He has a tendency to tell the truth even when he's not supposed to, which is something I appreciate in a journalist.
7. @michaelmina_lab from Harvard broke the status quo when he explained to the world how rapid testing could change everything. It still can, but governments haven't caught up. If they had, we wouldn't be here.
8. @Bob_Wachter has written a staggering 220 chronicles. They have brought light and reason in a comforting daily ritual, especially meaningful to me since he works at my go-to hospital, UCSF, and he's an amazing human I've had the chance to zoom-host.
9. @ASlavitt did something similar, but on the political health arena, given his experience in the Obama admin and healthcare.gov. Crucial, because policies determine deaths.
10. @yaneerbaryam has kept screaming from the rooftops the importance and feasibility of suppressing the virus. That passion comes from his ethics, his personal loss due to the pandemic, and from the fact that he wants to do what's right, publicly and privately.
11. @jeremyphoward doesn't just sit and talk. When the pandemic exploded, he searched where he could have an impact, found that masks could be a game-changer, and spearheaded an evidence review that proved they could, changing the global conversation preprints.org/manuscript/202…
One of the few awe-inspiring things I witnessed during the pandemic is how, when the need emerges, ppl can raise to challenge & collaborate w/ strangers to make the world a better place. I met @jeremyphoward in a group that sprung up to fight the pandemic, & met many others there
12. Some of the most active actors behind the scene include @ericries , @roybahat , @mishachellam , @peterschwartz2 and many many others. They weren't as much in the public eye, but people like them moved behind the scenes to make actual things happen.
13. But the group that means the most to me is those like me who came from nowhere and everywhere and decided to help me create the best articles we ever could. People like @Dr_Carl_Juneau , who started translating the Hammer and the Dance and with whom I ended up writing papers
Or like @thismattbell and @the1andonlyggee, who supported all our articles massively, among a group of dozens of volunteers.
Do you have stories like this one of the pandemic, where you got together with a group of strangers that suddenly felt like family?
14. In the polar opposite, there's all the people who I never met but had a huge impact in the global conversation. People like @DrAnthonyF for guiding the US, @c_drosten & Merkel for Germany, Tegnell, @LondonBreed for closing SF when everybody thought it was ridiculous,
or @GiuseppeConteIT for closing Italy down, the 1st democracy to do so; Taiwan, South Korea and Taiwan for showing us how it's done...
15. Then there are the inspiring characters like @GeoRebekah
She was in charge of reporting #coronavirus data in Florida.
She was told to tweak the data.
She said no.
She was fired.
She built what I call the "FU dashboard", publishing the true data from outside the admin
I'll continue tomorrow. I'm missing dozens.
Who influenced you the most during the pandemic?
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UNPRECEDENTED
The singularity is near. We're 1-6 years away from AGI according to: 1. Prediction markets 2. Insider insights 3. Benchmarks 4. Lack of barriers to growth 5. Current progress
This breakneck speed of AI progress is illustrated by OpenAI's o3 and DeepSeek🧵
1. Prediction Markets:
Average bet on AGI: November 2030
Mode: June 2027
Two other bets in Metaculus match this:
• Two years to weak AGI, so by the end of 2026
• Three years later, Superintelligence, so by the end of 2029
This remote corner of the US has something unique that might soon make it one of the most important cities in the world—the city of the future. It is officially Boca Chica today, but it might soon become Starbase 🧵
This point at the south of Texas is the southernmost point in the continental US
That is extremely useful for rockets
The biggest share of weight in rockets is fuel. Most of it is burnt just to carry the rest to orbit! Rocket makers do anything they can to reduce fuel consumption
2. Los Angeles:
• Trading hub between the world (Pacific) and the US (railways)
• Weather + biggest coastal valley on the Pacific➡️agriculture & cheap building
• Oil
• Landscapes + far from the East Coast centers of power➡️Attracted the film industry
People think we must shrink the world's population to be happy, but they're wrong
A world with shrinking population would be decaying, poor, brutal, violent, hopeless
A world with 100 billion people would be dynamic, rich, innovative, peaceful, hopeful
🧵
1. In the last 2 centuries, the world got better as the population exploded:
• Richer
• Live older
• Lower child mortality
• Fewer homicides
• Fewer war deaths
• Fewer hours worked
• Lower share of poor people
And much more: fewer infections, diseases, accidents. More racial equality, sexual equality. Instant access to all the knowledge in the world. We can go anywhere, whenever we want...
We can raise our population on Earth from 8 billion to 100B humans if we want to
Would we starve?
Be too crowded?
Would pollution explode?
Ecosystems collapse?
No! Don't believe alarmist degrowthers. This is why they're wrong: 🧵
Degrowthers put a label to "how many humans can the Earth sustain": carrying capacity
Their estimates vary wildly
Wait, what? What a surprise, the mode of their estimates is 8B—exactly the current number of ppl on Earth
WHAT A COINCIDENCE!
Or they lack imagination: OMG the Earth is already on the brink. Surely not one more soul fits here!
And then they try to find out what limits we might be hitting. Their most common fears are: 1. Room 2. Food 3. Water 4. Energy 5. Pollution 6. Resources
Let's look at each: