Seems like Austin and Miami are the early winners of the COVID-driven SF emigration.
Utah is 3rd place.
(Original observation was weighted by anecdotal evidence of interesting people with an existing track record, who have access to capital, and still actively looking to tackle hard/ambitious problems and build stuff.)
Jackson is beautiful but land is $$$$ and not enough density.
Hawaii has 11% top marginal rate and time zone makes it hard to manage if you have West and East Coast based people.
That said, I do think the Bay Area isn't going anywhere any time soon—although I do think fewer startups will want to be in SF proper based on the insane anti-startup environment (vs. the Peninsula and East Bay).
2008: "anyone with an airbed (or couch) can post a room”, "thrifty", "younger travelers".
2009: older travelers too, "competition with urban vacation rental services and B&Bs, traditionally a fragmented market with small, independent providers and no dominant national figures."
Insights obvious to some then and for most in retrospect:
- Marketplace consolidating supply of fragmented market
- Atomic unit of supply redefined
- Cheaper but in many cases better quality/UX
- Generational shift in consumer preference appeals to other generations, too