The head of the French government's scientific committee Jean-François Delfraissy believes the figures may be nearer 100,000 new cases a day, according to what he told RTL radio this morning (link for French speakers to follow).
For non French speakers, Delfraissy is saying he has come up with this figure as an estimate of those cases that are diagnosed (ie the result of positive tests) and those that remain undiagnosed because they are asymptomatic.
He also says the second wave is exceeding what he and his colleagues expected and that they are "surprised the by its brutality over the last ten days". He warns: "This second wave will certainly be stronger than the first".
He suggests two possible ways of addressing this brutal second wave: 1. A wider curfew that starts earlier and covers the weekends. 2. Another lockdown shorter and less severe than that imposed in March and similar to that in Ireland.
Whatever political decisions and measures taken, however, must be taken rapidly, Delfraissy says.
"The quicker we take measures, the more efficient they will be...this wave is in the process of invading Europe...it will last several weeks, even one or two months."
So, tonight Emmanuel Macron will tell France what new restrictions are to be introduced. I will be trying, once again, to give you a blow-by-blow account as he speaks. Usual rules apply: please forgive clumsy on the hoof translation.
Macron: "Efforts made were useful but not enough...situation of epidemic. The speed of spread of virus has not bee anticipated. 527 deaths yesterday, 3,000 people in i/c half the national capacity.
"Difference from 1 wave, the whole country is affected...operations are being cancelled. Difficult measures have been taken. Contested but necessary, but they are not enough to combat the second wave.
More depressing Covid-19 figures as we wait to hear what Emmanuel Macron plans to do at 8pm French time. Media reporting a possible 1-month lockdown from Thursday, but as we have discovered in the past, it is best to wait and hear not second guess.
Tonight's Covid-19 figures from France. The government website has updated first this evening, indicating +26,771 new confirmed cases and +257 new deaths, +1,016 new hospitalisations and +166 new i/c admissions.
Today we have a press conference by French PM Jean Castex and Health Minister Olivier Véran to explain curfew announced last evening by President Emmanuel Macron.
The 9pm-6am curfew is due to come into effect Saturday morning (from midnight) and last at least 4 weeks.
It could be extended to 1 December. I will try to give an account of this press conference. As usual, please forgive errors and clumsy translation.
Jean Castex says he's going to give details of new rules for Covid-19 crisis. Saturday France enters state of "health emergency" which will last for 4 weeks or longer if parliament decides. Comes from worsening of "viral situation" over last 10 days.
Tonight's Covid-19 figures from France. This evening President Emmanuel Macron announced a 9pm-6am curfew in the Paris region + Grenoble, Lille, Lyon, Aix-Marseille, Montpellier, Rouen, Saint-Etienne, Toulouse. This will start 17/10 and last minimum 4 weeks.
Aim is to reduce number of new confirmed cases in any 24 hour period to <5,000. It is currently >20,000. Essential workers exempt, so I think we are seeing the return of the sworn declaration.
Gatherings at home should be max. 6 people and masks work if distancing impossible.
The whole of France will enter new "state of health emergency" from 17/10
Home-working encouraged where possible.
People can go on holiday (school half term begins this weekend).
Distancing + masks on public transport (this isn't happening).