Thread by @benrileysmith

If Biden wins there will be an almighty scramble from the UK to keep the trade deal alive. Having chatted to well-placed sources this is my understanding for how Britain will try to save it... (quick thread) 1/?

First where we are: Talks have been running much of the year, after Brexit finally happened in Jan (freeing the UK to formally negotiate). 5th round happened this month. The delays to Brexit meant getting a deal done in Trump’s 1st term proved impossible. 2/?

Specifics of talks status are kept under lock + key but the mood music from both sides is positive. Trump’s Commerce Sec told us recently no unsurpassable issues had been raised. Similar messages from UK. Hopes of a deal first half of 2021 if Trump wins. 3/?

But if Biden wins, big uncertainty follows. Trump backed Brexit. Biden didn’t. Trump is full-throated in his support of a trade deal. Biden is not. Trump sees Boris as “Britain Trump”. Biden was publicly critical when Boris won the 19 election. 4/?

First challenge will be to get to Biden’s inner circle. UK officials ready to make contact within days of result. Britain, like every country, is barred from meeting with Biden campaign officials (a rule Biden put in to avoid any repeat of the 2016 Russian meddling row)... 5/?

UK ambassador Karen Pierce has spent recent weeks improving back channels by dining / chatting with figures likely influential in a Biden admin. Contacts with key Dems in Congress already good after years of pre-negotiation meetings. UK officials upbeat on contacts. 6/?

One big push will be to reframe how a deal is seen in US. For last few years it’s been framed (not totally but significantly) as the cherry on top of Brexit. Instead it will be portrayed as in line with Biden’s agenda of rebuilding the US economy + strengthening alliances. 7/?

Another will be leveraging UK’s leading roles in 2 key multilateral bodies next year - presidency of G7 and hosting of UN Climate Change Conference. Allows Britain to be seen as a reliable + helpful partner on the world stage. Deal portrayed as a win-win with an ally. 8/?

Officials also looking at whether talks can continue at any level during what would be a ‘lame duck’ period (b/w Nov 3 election + Jan 20 inauguration) if Biden wins. Hope technical discussions can continue. TBC. Would nudge deal further down the line before Biden comes in. 9/?

The row over Northern Ireland is no secret. Biden, Nancy Pelosi (Dem House leader), other Dem congressmen have made the warning explicit - undermine Northern Irish peace with Brexit and no trade deal. But... 10/?

There is a belief that read closely the warnings are just a restatement of fact. US doesn’t want Northern Ireland peace undermined (esp given its involvement in talks). That is the same public stance (rhetorically at least) as both London and Brussels. 11/?

Colleagues back home (follow @JamesCrisp6!) much better placed to know if there will be a UK-EU deal + if so whether both sides reach agreement on Irish border. V much a live issue. If (a big if) there is a deal though... 12/?

... the Northern Irish issue may have less bite in the UK-US talks. We went through this cycle over the Brexit departure terms. UK+EU at loggerheads. Pelosi +Dems warning impact on trade talks. UK+EU reached agreement. Issue faded in Washington. (Let’s see what happens.) 13/?

The bigger issue may very well be TIMINGS. The US president can only negotiate trade deals because Congress lends the power to do so. Negotiating power rests with Congress. And (drum roll) that power is taken BACK in July 2021... 14/?

The end of Trade Promotion Authority (as it’s known) is July 1. A huge deal - this is the hard deadline UK officials have been warning about for years. They have always wanted a deal done and submitted before then. It is getting tricky... 15/?

If a deal is submitted to Congress before TPA expires, they can hold a simple up/down vote on passing it. But if no agreement reached when it expires, then lengthy, complex negotiations have to be had with Congress itself. This would indefinitely delay a UK-US deal. 16/?

Which is where the problem from a Biden win comes in. He’ll need to pick a US Trade Rep. That takes time. He’ll need that person to get confirmed by the Senate. That takes time... 17/?

... Biden may want new negotiating objectives (more sensitive to labour demands?). That takes time. He may want to renegotiate bits of text already approved by the Trump-Boris teams. That takes time. Then actually complete talks. The thorniest issues are left to the end... 18/?

This is the biggest challenge to my mind: Convincing Biden to make trade talks a priority enough that he picks team, gets confirmations, decides objectives, gets negotiating, agrees terms + submits text to Congress in the less than 6 months before TPA expires. Big, big ask. 19/?

Perhaps a new TPA gets passed super speedily (despite often gaps of years in past) b/c Dems hold all of Congress. Perhaps it doesn’t but negotiating with Congress directly isn’t too bad. Perhaps Biden really is convinced to prioritise talks (he is an Anglophile). Perhaps. 20/?

UK officials are upbeat of bipartisan support for a deal (a win-win deepening trade with an ally). But a Biden win, on the facts alone, brings a tonne of extra uncertainty. More than 4yrs after the Brexit vote, that hallowed UK-US deal will be pushed further into the horizon. END

I unpacked the issue at a bit more length in this piece from our Sunday paper, with thoughts from Liam Fox (optimistic) Alan Duncan (pessimistic) and US folk. telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/2…