A thread on how record fundraising has crippled a bunch of Democratic campaigns, which also ties in to people's question "can candidates do anything useful with donations a week before the election?" TL;DR no one can afford to pay for pre-reserved ad time because of Senate races
If you're running for Congress, you book a bunch of ad time right before the election, based on your anticipated budget. In most cases you can't pay up front for this ad time even if you wanted to.
There's a law that says candidates have to be charged the lowest rate available for ads they run within 60 days of the election. In the past, that has made ad costs fairly predictable in smaller media markets. It also means candidates get a better deal than Super PACs
This year, though, what has happened is some out of the way places have seen unreal amounts of fundraising, due in large part to the death of Justice Ginsburg. The Senate candidate in Montana has spent over $60 per registered voter. The one in Maine has raised over $76 per voter
On top of that, these competitive races have brought unprecedented amounts of outside money into competitive states. This money is also being spent on ads, which drives the costs higher—not by a little, but by a factor of five or ten or more.
The candidate is still guaranteed the lowest rate, but that rate is pegged to the market price, which can go up without limit. So when someone like Bloomberg comes in to drop $100 million on ads in Florida, what he is also doing is defunding every campaign in that media market
This is also happening in a pandemic year, when candidates have to lean especially hard on digital, radio, and TV ads in lieu of other strategies for turning out voters. The more money the marquee races get, the less buying power there is further down the ballot
Because post-Ginsburg political giving has been so concentrated, it's driving an internecine bidding war that just captures value for the media companies. And campaign finance laws make it impossible to redistribute the money in more useful ways across campaigns
Two weeks ago I saw huge fundraising numbers for the campaigns I fundraise for on the Great Slate, and thought we were all set. But it turns out no one can even cover the costs of the pre-election ad space they reserved, since it's gone up 5x-10x in price.
The ads are good! They're good in part because your generous support made it possible to run a real campaign in places that have traditionally been ignored, and where we now have a real chance to win. Check out this one from Alyse Galvin
The problem is, we have to get them in front of people this week, and that takes more money. Right now I'm funneling all I can to ME-2, Alaska, and Iowa, where I think it has the most impact. If you can still help, please dig deep and get us over the line secure.actblue.com/donate/great_s…
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