Awesome podcast by @zhusu @hasufl and @lightcrypto anchor.fm/uncommoncore/e…
Lots of controversy surrounding the $ETH views, so thought I'd counter just a bit.
Lots of controversy surrounding the $ETH views, so thought I'd counter just a bit.
First, just want to say that the first 75% of the podcast is filled with awesome trading alpha. Asymmetric payoffs, risk management, inability to dump bad trades (or, worse, doubling down), bad trades turning into investments. Basically, everything that makes you a bad trader.
Last 30 minutes is the ETH discussion. Su starts off by saying that BTC is the reserve currency, especially for bigger players such as miners and exchanges. I think it's funny that those are two of the biggest groups to be disintermediated by ETH (with PoS + DEXes).
As an ETH investor I don't care what miners or exchanges use as their base currency, because Ethereum is trying to kill both of them anyways, full stop.
Next critique is basically the "is ETH money?" debate. Certainly is to me. Probably too big of a debate to go into here.
Next critique is basically the "is ETH money?" debate. Certainly is to me. Probably too big of a debate to go into here.
Light then makes a point which I think is mistaken. That it took institutions 10 years to get comfortable with Bitcoin, and then so who is going to put ETH into their treasury? "A bridge too far," he says. Well, I think everyone knows that the leap from Fiat to BTC is much...
...much harder and longer than the leap from BTC to ETH. Took me 3 years to buy my first BTC, and only 4 months to sell it for ETH (after seeing enough of BTC problems). I expect a similar effect with institutions.
Next, the Pfeffer article is cited. Huge eyeroll from me.
Next, the Pfeffer article is cited. Huge eyeroll from me.
I don't think that paper has been validated at all.
Next, argument that ETH is speculative, and the narrative breaks down when ETH fails to deliver. But BTC has to do nothing to succeed. This laziness/apathy is IMO low-key one of the biggest latent black swans risks to Bitcoin.
Next, argument that ETH is speculative, and the narrative breaks down when ETH fails to deliver. But BTC has to do nothing to succeed. This laziness/apathy is IMO low-key one of the biggest latent black swans risks to Bitcoin.
No technology can just sit by and do nothing and expect to win. ETH fails repeatedly, but is always experimenting with new tech and trying new things. I don't understand why Hasu praises PTJ's quote about "betting on human ingenuity" if...
...BTC is proud to sit idle and do nothing, while ETH is constantly experimenting on new things.
A few ETH positives that I think they overlook, too. First is, while Ethereum may not be lindy due to the changing narrative, it's developer network effects are!
A few ETH positives that I think they overlook, too. First is, while Ethereum may not be lindy due to the changing narrative, it's developer network effects are!
Ethereum continues to grow in terms of developer activity and community. Critically, these efforts compound. A lot. Hard to match the pace of development activity IMO, and one of the central parts of the investment thesis for ETH.
To wrap up, it was a phenomenal podcast, and I think there is a ton of merit to their critiques. I also think, as a compromise, perhaps, that short ETH/BTC may be better as a short-term trade, and long ETH/BTC better as a long-term investment.
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